China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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bustead

Junior Member
Registered Member
China does have a large uranium enrichment industry. It is way more than enough to meet civilian demands for the coming decades.

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I think China has restarted HEU production already but there is no evidence to my claim.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Been saying China has had enrichment facilities out in the open and plenty not so out in the open for ages. No one listens no one even considers the possibilities.

Brainfart members in the past years continued to assume China always had around 300 nuclear warheads from the 1980s to 2020 LOL. And their reasoning was because China doesn't say it has any more enrichment facilities than they have been considered to have by public domain American analysts working with scraps of information. To them just because China never publicly announced they have x enrichment plants since year y, they believe the 300 number. Their MAD and nuclear policy understanding even poorer than this. Happily even the CCP is okay with showing just how wrong they are, officially stating the nuclear force and PLARF is the backbone of China's security. Correct.

Now at least it seems the public domain is beginning to understand that there was never really any material cap on China's stockpile to well beyond 300 warheads. China fires more ballistic missiles in just verification, frequent testing, training and exercises every year than what I would imagine is launched by the rest of the world combined X2... India and the US both declare every launch they hold. China would fire off more in one single testing event than they would the entire year and in India's case entire decade. The CCP will never publicly declare how many missiles they actually have and how many warheads but the people who need to know on the opposite side of the table probably have a decent idea and given the appropriate proofs to make sure they don't get too trigger happy.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
China trades in nuclear power technology so it must be a signatory to some nuclear regulatory agency or they wouldn't be able to build foreign nuclear power plants which it has done. In order to be able to do that, one has to follow a lot of rules which includes allowing outside independent inspectors into the country and allow them to go anywhere they want. If China has a facility to produce fissile material, then it would have to be legal since no one but the Indians are complaining about it. The Indians are the only ones to discover it? The US stockpiles fissile material so they can't really complain if China does too.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
China trades in nuclear power technology so it must be a signatory to some nuclear regulatory agency or they wouldn't be able to build foreign nuclear power plants which it has done. In order to be able to do that, one has to follow a lot of rules which includes allowing outside independent inspectors into the country and allow them to go anywhere they want. If China has a facility to produce fissile material, then it would have to be legal since no one but the Indians are complaining about it. The Indians are the only ones to discover it? The US stockpiles fissile material so they can't really complain if China does too.
Not all production facilities can be inspected. Only those facilities that receive nuclear fissile-able material from the "market" - other signatories like Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia etc - can be inspected. Also include technologies for processing bought from signatories.

So if China is mining its own nuclear materials and running them centrifuges and enriching them with its own tech then it's A-OK.

Atleast that's what I've read.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
China trades in nuclear power technology so it must be a signatory to some nuclear regulatory agency or they wouldn't be able to build foreign nuclear power plants which it has done. In order to be able to do that, one has to follow a lot of rules which includes allowing outside independent inspectors into the country and allow them to go anywhere they want. If China has a facility to produce fissile material, then it would have to be legal since no one but the Indians are complaining about it. The Indians are the only ones to discover it? The US stockpiles fissile material so they can't really complain if China does too.

Another issue with the assumption that they would know from the independent foreign investigators is that China's nuclear technology mastery is deep and long. The country is also vast.

Looking for nuclear facilities that are not declared is absolutely impossible particularly if those facilities are intended to be hidden. Every major military and tech power has a lot of hidden ability and facilities doing stuff that people even within its own government wouldn't know about if they don't hold those clearances.

For all we know (including those in the low clearance public office), nuclear weapons as some MAD guarantee is already long superceded by superior weapons in China. Nukes are kept around but are far from the be all end all WMD.

Hiding activity and purpose of facilities, even their size and locations is really all but too easy for China. There are ways around SAR satellites gaining valuable information or any sort of effort to measure details below dedicated material used for these purposes. You can't hide a carrier being constructed but you can hide nearly everything else well enough. Then there's jamming and blinding satellites which China's been able to do since the 2000s if not earlier... if American complaints on those abilities hold any truth.

If it were that easy to measure and expose strategically important things, everything flying in Area 51 and whatever other facilities used for testing aircraft and missiles in the US would be totally exposed to the Chinese and Russians since the 1980s and earlier for the Russians/Soviets. There are so many ways to counter satellites the US have not retired the U-2 and surely have long had an in service replacement for the SR-71. The US is truly the only other capable nation as it is the only other one that doesn't show and tell everything it has. The Russians are beginning to be like the Indians with the whole "I have this and that and I'm really strong so please respect my power!" lol.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Not all production facilities can be inspected. Only those facilities that receive nuclear fissile-able material from the "market" - other signatories like Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia etc - can be inspected. Also include technologies for processing bought from signatories.

So if China is mining its own nuclear materials and running them centrifuges and enriching them with its own tech then it's A-OK.

Atleast that's what I've read.
As recent news has reported China has a French nuclear power plant. The only way France would be able to sell to China and China be able to buy it from France is if both are signatories. That's how they control who gets nuclear power technology because one of the rules is allowing outside inspectors in to count how much each country has i.e. how much uranium. Yes if a country has a domestic supply it would be harder to track. But for countries that don't have a domestic supply, inspectors can and do track accountable supplies. If some is missing from the last inspection, then they know something has been done and are subject to action.
 
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