China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[sinophilia]

1. MIRVs

2. How do you know how many TELs are parked indoors?

3. China launches 100+ rockets per year including 'solid state launch vehicles' which have nearly zero commercial advantage over liquid fueled (but are much better for launching 'payloads' without preparation). Any orbital launch vehicle can deliver even more payload to a sub-orbital trajectory. Lacks delivery mechanisms?

No need for the snark. I am asking a legitimate question because I am curious.

US estimates have been pretty consistent for a while, yet they keep saying China is the second coming of Lucifer, and that China will quadruple or even quintuple their stockpile over the next decade. They do the China scare BS tactic with everything, even civilian tech, so I am wondering why they would think China's total number of warheads can't exceed 300.

A lot of people here have said they think it's because America is trying to make China look weak. That is weird considering they try to make China look strong in every other realm, in both civilian and military tech.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

No need for the snark. I am asking a legitimate question because I am curious.

US estimates have been pretty consistent for a while, yet they keep saying China is the second coming of Lucifer, and that China will quadruple or even quintuple their stockpile over the next decade. They do the China scare BS tactic with everything, even civilian tech, so I am wondering why they would think China's total number of warheads can't exceed 300.

A lot of people here have said they think it's because America is trying to make China look weak. That is weird considering they try to make China look strong in every other realm, in both civilian and military tech.

it is a typical fascist tactic: the enemy is very strong but if you give us power we can destroy them easily.

 

[Red Moon]

It was the Soviets who thought about attacking the Chinese nuclear facilities. They asked if the US would object, which it did because of the possible effect of fallout on its regional allies. The US also told the PRC what the Soviets were thinking, which in part led to the Sino-Soviet split.

Your time-frame is all wrong. Kissinger told the Chinese about this in the early 70's, and I wouldn't assume Zhou En Lai believed it. The Sino-Soviet split developed between 1958 and 1962. The US itself was considering using nukes on China during this period.

 

[Maikeru]

Your time-frame is all wrong. Kissinger told the Chinese about this in the early 70's, and I wouldn't assume Zhou En Lai believed it. The Sino-Soviet split developed between 1958 and 1962. The US itself was considering using nukes on China during this period.

If only you'd read my subsequent posts...

 

[bustead]

I should point out that even if China is not producing any HEU/Pu at all for now, it still has 2.9 tons of weapon grade Pu-239 and 18 tons of HEU. This will be more than enough for 1000 warheads. The current Western estimate of 200-300 warheads is quite flawed. However, also keep in mind that China is not only maintaining a deterrent against the US. Some warheads need to be reserved for other adversaries such as India.

 

[siegecrossbow]

It’s no windmill…

 

[zgx09t]

But that only apply for imported nuclear technology meaning in order to secure export license China must sign nuclear non proliferation treaty. With their attending inspection etc. PWR, Candu, Westinghouse belong to this category of nuclear plant

But that does not apply for reactor to generate plutonium for weapon purpose which most likely a graphite moderated nuclear power plant.

China is the original 5 nuclear power along with US, Britain, French, soviet as such there is no prohibition to built warhead . The restriction only apply to the late comer . So there is no inspector in China weapon production facility!

Indeed, China bought 10's of 1000's of tons in uranium from open market since last decade taking full advantage of falling prices due to confluence of Fukushima disaster and Russian-US megaton to megawatt deal. Once these uranium crossed Chinese border, no questions asked about their whereabouts or status, and no need to say or explain anything on China's part as well. One of the perks of being a P5.

 

[windsclouds2030]

ok

OK I'll just waste a bit of time on your trolling subject.

it goes back at least to the 1970s, I read the story on the "reference news" when I was a little boy. the Soviet noticed it, they told their story: it's the US wanted to nuke China, the Soviet refused it. the collapse of the Soviet Union didn't give any evidences to support either sides story, it's just disinformation.

and it seems you have a good collection on it.

Indeed I also read such piece around 15 to 20 years ago about some top official from the US State Dept. proposed to the USSR government to nuke China's nuclear research and testing facility in Xinjiang (near to Lop Nur iirc) but Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev just totally ignored such proposition. I didn't read it from the Russian source but from some Western resource, perhaps .edu or the like, and such reference was merely few paragraphs of bigger topic so it'll be very hard to find such reference again, can't remember exactly, can't locate such link either. But I remember vividly that it's was Nikita Khrushchev era, and Xinjiang was the proposed target! If some day I can find such similar reference I promise to post it here even after quite a time.

 

[LesAdieux]

Indeed I also read such piece around 15 to 20 years ago about some top official from the US State Dept. proposed to the USSR government to nuke China's nuclear research and testing facility in Xinjiang (near to Lop Nur iirc) but Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev just totally ignored such proposition. I didn't read it from the Russian source but from some Western resource, perhaps .edu or the like, and such reference was merely few paragraphs of bigger topic so it'll be very hard to find such reference again, can't remember exactly, can't locate such link either. But I remember vividly that it's was Nikita Khrushchev era, and Xinjiang was the proposed target! If some day I can find such similar reference I promise to post it here even after quite a time.

there're different versions of the story. given the gravity of the matter, if it's real, it won't fade away. I think they are disinformations.

 

[plawolf]

Like I've said it's not exact but people are speculating how much potential nukes a country has. You at least get a potential minimal number.

Except that’s not where the silly 300 nukes number came from.

Also, under IAEA NSG framework agreements, it is only the outputs of involved civilian nuclear reactors that are up for inspection. Domestic civilian reactors not using nuclear materials imported under NSG are not open for inspection, never mind military reactors.

The entire purpose of NSG and NPT is to prevent non-nuclear powers from obtaining nuclear weapons while not denying them civilian nuclear energy.

It never has and never will place any meaningful limitations or restrictions on existing nuclear weapons powers to expand their weapons stockpiles as much as they wish, and that is very much a feature not a bug.

It also gives zero meaningful insight into how much weapons grade material an existing nuclear weapons state can make other than maybe an irrelevant theoretical amount that they can make by refining spent fuel rods from civilian reactors that are operating under the NSG. But that’s basically entirely irrelevant for China since it has both alternative supplies of nuclear raw materials and its own massive domestic nuclear industry.

Simply put, the west has no magic mirror they can consult on just how many nukes China has or can make.