China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: DF-41 Missile\

C'mon now gents. Delbert is asking a legitimate question...And I ask >>> what nation would put a weapon system into service without testing the same? This is a ASBM. It needs to be proven.

This is why so many people are skeptical about this weapons system. No proof of testing.

China is one of the few country that has active missile testing. Most probably the missile is tested already Here is the defense report dated 2008. It is hard to distinguished one missile test from the other

The latest Pentagon report on China is a sobering tale of advancing capability and aggression intentions inside Beijing. The report also illustrates newly developed weapons being fielded by the Chinese military based in part on advanced technology exported by the United States.


"China has the most active ballistic missile program in the world. It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading certain missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses," notes the 2008 Defense Department report."
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

Thanks Hendrik 2000, for posting that wonderful quotation from DoD's '08 China report! (...though I do not subscribe to your analysis that Beijing is currently inclined to a strategy of aggression.)

Note how the sentence is cleared of any precise information (Most active?? How many DF-11/15/21/25/31/41 tests were actually conducted?) for sounding somewhat concerned but certainly not alarmist. :D
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: DF-41 Missile\

Thanks Hendrik 2000, for posting that wonderful quotation from DoD's '08 China report! (...though I do not subscribe to your analysis that Beijing is currently inclined to a strategy of aggression.)

It is not my opinion I just copy it from Newsmax the mouthpiece of right wing I do agree with you there is no advantage for chinese military adventure. They need peace to improve the living standard of their people but reserve the right for self defense
 

kroko

Senior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

US IC (intelligence community) guys potentially in a position to shed some light on that´mystery´ are evidently not allowed to talk.

Harping on PLA's weapons tests by some ´die hard´ Pentagon/IC relics would be obviously counterproductive for its undermining of a mutually beneficial business relationship.

im sorry, but what you stated above is not true. there is an awful lot of people related to the powerful military-industrial complex who want congress to fork out money to it. Presenting china´s military as powerful as possible is good for them.

The French made heavy use of supercomputer simulation, instrumented ranges and short range dummy stage testing during the development of M51 so China has probably decided to learn something from them...

Does china has acess to a supercomputer with that capacity?
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: DF-41 Missile\

im sorry, but what you stated above is not true. there is an awful lot of people related to the powerful military-industrial complex who want congress to fork out money to it. Presenting china´s military as powerful as possible is good for them.



Does china has acess to a supercomputer with that capacity?

Kroko kroko you are way behind the curve, China has been for years simulating the nuclear blast using super computer. How do you think they improve the design of nuclear bomb without testing it Nowadays you don't actually need to test anymore

Domestic supercomputer has been installed in many research laboratory

Here is one example

Local computer world's 10th fastest


2008-11-18


CHINA'S most powerful domestically made supercomputer has been ranked as the 10th fastest in the world, the Shanghai Economic Committee said yesterday.

The Dawning 5000A, or "Magic Cube," was jointly developed by the Institute of Computer Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Dawning Information Industry Co and the Shanghai Supercomputer Center, where it resides.

The development of the Cube made China only the second country capable of building supercomputers whose processing speeds reach multi-hundred trillion floating-point operations per second, according to the committee. Floating points represent a method of encoding numbers.

The Cube is China's second supercomputer to rank among the world's top 10. A Dawning 4000A took 10th place in 2004.

The Dawning 5000A is the most powerful system outside the United States.

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2008-6-26

CHINA'S leading supercomputer, 20 times more powerful than the current one, will have a home in Shanghai by the end of this year.

A supercomputer demonstrates a country's IT development level because it is used for daily life, academic studies and industrial applications such as weather forecasts and gene studies, the Shanghai Supercomputer Center said yesterday.

The supercomputer, code-named Dawning5000, costs 200 million yuan (US$29 million), with the central and Shanghai governments contributing 100 million yuan each.

Dawning5000 has achieved a peak performance of 230 teraflops, or 230 trillion calculations per second. The computing capacity is based on how many calculations can be performed within one second.

It occupies 75 square meters and used 6,600 AMD quad-core chips, 20 times faster than the previous model Dawning4000 but only increasing power consumption by 50 percent.

"Now we invite people to give the model an impressive name, such as IBM's Blue Gene/L, before it's properly installed in Shanghai," said Xi Zili, the supercomputer center director.

At present the world's most powerful supercomputer is the IBM-developed Roadrunner with a peak performance of 1.026 petaflops, five times faster than Dawning5000.

The International Supercomputing Conference released last week in Dresden, Germany, the latest rankings of the world's most powerful supercomputers and Dawning would have been there.

Nie Hua, vice president of Dawning Information Industry Co, said yesterday in an interview with Xinhua: "A delay in the delivery of AMD Barcelona quad-cores chips made us miss the latest rankings."

In 2004 a Dawning 4000A was ranked the tenth fastest in the world.

While the IBM Roadrunner was built for unspecified military applications, the Chinese system focuses on commercial use, Xinhua reported. Dawning showcased its eye-catching performance by processing a 36-hour weather forecast on Beijing and its environs within three minutes.

Li Guojie, Dawning Information Industry Co's chairman, said China is researching a 1-petaflop supercomputer and the model will be available around 2010.

In 1995 Chinese computing scientists built the country's first supercomputer.
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

@kroko:
The famous ´military industrial complex´ of the US has steadily declined measured in its share of GDP and of federal government expenditure since the 80's. Even the post 9/11 security spending spree of the G.W.Bush administration has not budged the general trend (ratio to nominal GDP) if the massive Iraq/Afghanistan war budgets are viewed separately. However the volume of trade between ´Greater China´ and the US has exploded to more than $ 400 billion annually, direct and financial investment has cumulated to a similar sum and by holding a $ trillion of US state and private debt PRC has become the primary lender of the US.

Just watch how Obama will be ´all smiles´ during his upcoming China visit (early November) in order to get China on board for rescuing the US's ailing economy and he will probably go to great lenghts to prevent any spoiler to talk about ´nasty´ things. :china:

Make no mistake, Cold War schemes are obsolete ´yesteryear games´, they would have been already three decades ago if the USSR had been the biggest trade and investment partner of the US back then!:D

As for your question about PRC's supercomputer capabilities:
go and check top500.org a very informative website with detailed information about the world of high performance computing. China has currently according to top500.org database more supercomp's than Japan but is lagging somewhat behind UK, France and Germany (naturally US is way in the lead) in cumulative performance. Note that the list does not include highly classified systems as e.g. any NSA ´number crunchers´ do not appear on the US ranking and especially the number of high performance systems in China is probably substantially higher than the 15 units given. :coffee:. (Also Russia's position appears to be understated for similar reasons...)
 
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Red Moon

Junior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

I think the notion of "top secret" computers is nonsense. I would expect the top500 list to be the actual top supercomputers. This list evolves very quickly, so that whatever was number 1 this year could be 4,7, or 10 next year. Any user, other than one specializing in supercomputing, that tries to always have the best will have to be upgrading, re-testing their systems, re-writing some of their software, etc., every few months. This is hardly worth it. NASA, or whatever "classified" user would never be able to get to their real "top secret" work.
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

@Red Moon:
There are some more slight discrepancies between NSA and NASA than only an additional vowel:D, I am convinced that such a wise guy like you will certainly figure that ´riddle´ out.
Perhaps you need a tiny hint: The guys working there are very publicity averse and are very very busy scanning through vast amounts of binary numbers. And they are not using an abacus for their work...;)

Moreover there are also in China many diligent people hard at work in Chengdu, Xian or even in a mysterious city called Mianyang and surprisingly they are not really into using that cumbersome abacus too.

(Irony mode off:D: top500.org is only a group of scholars and enthusiasts, though they are supported by the industry and many universities. The list produced by them semi annually is without doubt authoritative but they have of course no access to secret locations and classified projects.)
 
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Roger604

Senior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

Funny, the diameter seems to be the same as the DF-31 but apparently the canister is a lot longer.

That is exactly the point. PLA avoids showing the length of the canisters when they intentionally "leak" those photo. But in the 60th anniversary parade, the DF-31A was explicitly named and showed. Makes one wonder if the length on the offroad vehicle is the same as the one road-mobile TEL in the parade.

In any event, it is obvious enough that the DF-31A has been mass produced. There were 12 in the parade and it is not conceivable that China would divert a large portion of its deterrence away from duty for long. So likely there are at least 8x to 10x of "what we saw" in the parade.

I think the next generation ICBM will be either a rail-based DF-41, with a much larger payload (enough for 16 MIRV's?) or simply an improved DF-31B with same dimensions as DF-31A but larger payload (6-8 MIRV's?).
 
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RedMercury

Junior Member
Re: DF-41 Missile\

Um, I highly doubt those TELs actually had rounds in them. It would be just asking for a first strike to put your deterrence all in your capital, along side all your key leaders. They were just TELs, and TELs are cheap.
 
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