China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Equation

Lieutenant General
CNN quoted sources that estimated PRC nuclear weapons at about 260, and your linked source above, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, lists China as having 250 nukes in 2014 (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
). That number is in line with most open source estimates of about 200-400 I've seen. Given China's official "no first use" posture, it's not likely they went on a nuclear weapons building spree.

The bottom line is just because China produced enough weapons grade material to build around 900-ish weapons doesn't mean they actually did. Nothing you said above successfully challenged current mainstream estimates, and you've offered no believable evidence to the contrary.

And you have offered no evidence that "mainstream" estimates of PRC nuclear weapons are legit. Who gives a frack what any Western institution projected estimates are just because they said so doesn't make it gold, since they don't have any access to China's real nuclear number and perhaps never will. As a result their words and opinions are just that, no better than anyone outside of China secret nuclear forces.o_O:rolleyes:
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
And you have offered no evidence that "mainstream" estimates of PRC nuclear weapons are legit. Who gives a frack what any Western institution projected estimates are just because they said so doesn't make it gold, since they don't have any access to China's real nuclear number and perhaps never will. As a result their words and opinions are just that, no better than anyone outside of China secret nuclear forces.o_O:rolleyes:
It was mentioned in the discussion thread mainstream estimates of 250+/- PRC nukes were sourced from declassified US intelligence data. If that isn't good enough for you, then link sources to better data.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
And you have offered no evidence that "mainstream" estimates of PRC nuclear weapons are legit. Who gives a frack what any Western institution projected estimates are just because they said so doesn't make it gold, since they don't have any access to China's real nuclear number and perhaps never will. As a result their words and opinions are just that, no better than anyone outside of China secret nuclear forces.o_O:rolleyes:

Those mainstream data are BS they quote each other ad infinum without clear source or DATA Phantom number. Typical of lazy journalism
You are free to stuck your head in the sand
We will only know the thru number when the shit hit the fan!
Feel free to believe in their delusion
Plutonium is not use anymore in making atom bomb It is outdated!
Concern scientist for atomic disarmament,FAS, Jeffrey Lewis are bunch of hippies masquerading as scientis they have agenda to push and purposely talk the number down. that graph tell the world exactly who they are!

My data is from leak DOE data a much more reliable number. they are the people who actually built US atomic arsenal in Lawrence Berkely lab in Livermore,CA.
They use 0.78% yield of the diffusion process for U235 from natural Uranium. Now natural uranium production data of China is available and They are growing by leap and bound since 2006. some of it went to Civilian nuclear plant but definitively some of it went for nuclear fissile. How much of percentage nobody know . Civilian only need slight enriched Uranium. Fissile material need high enriched uranium
 
Last edited:

Blackstone

Brigadier
My data is from leak DOE data a much more reliable number. they are the people who actually built US atomic arsenal in Lawrence Berkely lab in Livermore,CA.
They use 0.78% yield of the diffusion process for U235 from natural Uranium. Now natural uranium production data of China is available and They are growing by leap and bound since 2006. some of it went to Civilian nuclear plant but definitively some of it went for nuclear fissile. How much of percentage nobody know . Civilian only need slight enriched Uranium. Fissile material need high enriched uranium
Based on your claimed "leaked DOE data," how many nuclear weapons do you say PRC has? The 340-930 range isn't helpful, because one can reasonably take the low range and say it's close to "mainstream" estimates.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
It was mentioned in the discussion thread mainstream estimates of 250+/- PRC nukes were sourced from declassified US intelligence data. If that isn't good enough for you, then link sources to better data.
Anything coming out of the US "intelligence data" can't be trusted. Even they don't know exactly how many nukes China has, that's why they came up with such BS. If you want to believe in that Big Foot story than go right ahead. I will stick to the facts from Chinese officials, if they don't ever give it out to the public than c'est la vie.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Can we all just agree that no one really know how many nukes China has?
All this back and forth is meaningless because no one (except the PLA) actually knows!

Oh most of us here had already accepted that, just that some troll refuse to give up harping on the PRC and it's government body, therefore using conjecture information they view as valid.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This article quoting global time said that China has deploy 2nd brigade of DF41 in Heilongjiang near Russina border .
Assuming 1 brigade consists of min 12 launcher and they are mirved with 4 or 5 warhead. Just this 2 brigade already has 2X12X5= 120 Warhead. Now , 4 Submarine based JL2 with 12 missile assuming 2 warhead 4X12X2=96 warhead. NOt sure about DF5 with mirved warhead assuming they have 30DF5 that mean 30X5=150 warhead. Just quick calc show that they have 360 warhead
It show the absurdity of low balling estimate of 230 warhead as propagate by western media

Dongfeng-41 will bring China more respect
Source:Global Times Published: 2017/1/23 23:28:39
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. They think this is Beijing's response to Trump's provocative remarks on China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Before Trump took power, his team showed a tough stance toward China, and in turn, Beijing will ready itself for pressures imposed by the new US government. It is logical that Beijing attaches particular importance to the Dongfeng-41 as a strategic deterrence tool. With China's rise, China's strategic risks are growing. China bears the heavy task of safeguarding national security. Nuclear deterrence is the foundation of China's national security, which must be consolidated with the rising strategic risks.

The US has the world's most powerful military strength, including the most advanced and powerful nuclear arsenal. But Trump has called for a nuclear arms build-up many times. Even Washington feels that its naval forces and nuclear strength are lacking, so how can China be content with its current nuclear strength when it is viewed by the US as its biggest potential opponent?

China's nuclear capability should be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown with China under any circumstance, and such that China can strike back against those militarily provoking it. A military clash with the US is the last thing China wants, but China's nuclear arsenal must be able to deter the US.

The US has not paid enough respect to China's military. Senior US officials of the Asia-Pacific command frequently show their intention to flex their muscles with arrogance. The Trump team also took a flippant attitude toward China's core interests after Trump's election win. Enhancing communication and mutual understanding is not enough. China must procure a level of strategic military strength that will force the US to respect it.


A China with or without the Dongfeng-41 is different to the outside world. That is the significance of the Dongfeng-41. We hope this strategic edge will be revealed officially soon. It will not bring the China Threat theory, but will only add authority to the People's Liberation Army.

And here is from RT
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Beijing has deployed advanced Dongfeng-41 ICBMs in Heilongjiang Province, which borders Russia, according to reports based on images, possibly leaked to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president.
“Pictures of China's Dongfeng-41 ballistic missile were exposed on Chinese mainland websites,” the Global Times said citing reports in “some Hong Kong and Taiwan media.” Russian news agencies identified one of them as the Apple Daily, a Hong Kong-based tabloid-style resource.

“It was revealed that the pictures were taken in Heilongjiang Province. Military analysts believe that this is perhaps the second Dongfeng-41 strategic missile brigade and it should be deployed in northeastern China,” the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the Chinese daily adds. The Global Times works under the auspices of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, though the former tends to be more controversial.

Read more
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-propellant missile, which is estimated to have a range of up to 15,000km and be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed nuclear warheads. China is yet to show the ICBM to the general public during a military parade or any similar event. Most information of the advanced weapon remains highly classified.

There is speculation that China plans to deploy at least three brigades of DF-41s throughout the country. The image leak may have been timed with Trump’s inauguration, with the new president expected to take a confrontational stance towards China, according to the Global Times’ report.

Before taking office he angered Beijing by threatening to end the ‘One China policy’, which acknowledges continental China as the only Chinese nation and rejects Taiwan’s claim to be one. He also said he would pressure Beijing on economic issues like its monetary policy and trade barriers.

China routinely uses demonstration of its military prowess to send signals to challengers like the US. For instance, it tested a railcar-launched version of the DF-41 in December 2016 just as then-Defense Secretary Ashton Carter visited the aircraft carrier ‘USS John C. Stennis’ deployed in the South China Sea.

The alleged deployment of the DF-41 near Russia’s border should not be read as a threat to Russia, military analyst Konstantin Sivkov told RIA Novosti.

“DF-41 missiles placed near Russia’s border are a smaller threat than if they were placed deeper in the Chinese territory. Such missiles usually have a very large ‘dead zone’ [area within minimal range that cannot be attacked by a weapon],” he said, adding that the ICBMs would not be able to target Russia’s Far East and most of Eastern Siberia from the Heilongjiang Province.

The Kremlin agreed with the assessment, saying that China is Russia’s “strategic partner in political and economic senses.”

“Certainly, the actions of the Chinese military, if the reports prove correct, the military build-up in China is not perceived as a threat to our country,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top