China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Blackstone
Brigadier
CNN sourced Federation of American Scientists, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, and their numbers are close to US intelligence assessments of 200-250 nukes. Why then do you say CNN's numbers are as good as pulled from thin air?
Blackstone
Brigadier
So, if you think China has increased its nuclear weapons, pray tell how much do you think they have and unless it's just a pure guess, kindly link your sources.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Gee all the number are there Use your elementary math , you will arrive at the number it say in 2009 the plutonium production(which is wrong since modern H bomb doesn't use plutonium anymore) is 2.5-5 ton .Each bomb require 5kg so depending on high or low estimate it can vary . Let assume midway 4 ton divided by 5 is equal 800 warhead.
Now what about the intervening years from 2009to 2016 that is 7 years what is the plutonium production since then ?
Up to 2009 China is backward since then her industrial prowess grew year by year . don't you think they didn't increase the production of Plutonium or U 235 since then?
I don't care about FAS they are nothing but bunch of piece activist with primary goal of nuclear disarmament .Having China own a large war head doesn't serve their agenda . So there is incentive to lower the number
antiterror13
Brigadier
Blackstone
Brigadier
In other words, it's your personal estimates and you have no studies, white papers, or unclassified government figures to present. How's your personal guestimates better than CNN's 260 nukes number, which came from well known sources like the Federation of Scientists and Nuclear Threat Initiative?
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Do you know how to read post?. Those number are taken from the classified DOE leak to the press long time ago. Click the link below "Guangyang Plutonium production"
Those number from FAS,CNN is the same regurgitated number from Jeffrey Lewis It has no value ZIP ZERO. Read the reference I give it to you before you answer!
Read even those number are ESTIMATE!. And another thing Plutonium derived A Bomb is outdated people doesn't use it anymore. Look at the date it is from 2006 but for some reason the number is stuck to 250 forever! not logical Does it mean China suddenly stop manufacturing warhead? from 2006 to 2016?. They are the same number because they come from the same source just like any news about China come from Reuter, AFP,AP and CNN, New York times etc quote from the same sources
Just take a look at plutonium, production. A classified DOE estimate of Chinese plutonium production, leaked to the press, places Chinese Pu stockpile at . This is consistent with unclassified estimates by Gronlund and Wright (2-5 metric tons) and Albright et al (4.8 metric tons). For more information, see my post , November 9, 2006.
Assuming 3 to 5 kilograms of plutonium per warhead, 1.7-2.8 tons of plutonium could support a force of 340 to 930 weapons. If China uses substantially more than 5 kilograms per warhead
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Blackstone
Brigadier
CNN quoted sources that estimated PRC nuclear weapons at about 260, and your linked source above, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, lists China as having 250 nukes in 2014 (). That number is in line with most open source estimates of about 200-400 I've seen. Given China's official "no first use" posture, it's not likely they went on a nuclear weapons building spree.
The bottom line is just because China produced enough weapons grade material to build around 900-ish weapons doesn't mean they actually did. Nothing you said above successfully challenged current mainstream estimates, and you've offered no believable evidence to the contrary.
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