China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

Where did you get the 1k number? Most pundits I've read/heard say China only has around 200-400 hundred nukes. One American expert said something about 3k nukes hidden in thousands of km tunnels, but he's an outlier.

Nobody know the number of Chinese warhead because China doesn't publish the production of U 235 or Plutonium unlikeany other state
The number often quoted are guesstimate by Jeffrey Lewis
He is the one that give that number and regurgitated ad infinum by think tank, congressional research ,media
He use to work for concern scientist for proliferation of atom bomb. And he did estimate the plutonium production of China in 80 coauthor with an exchange chinese scholar who work at MIT in 80's who actually work of Chinese nuclear program. But it is an old estimate!
Dr. Lewis is the author of Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (MIT Press, 2007) and publishes

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, the leading blog on disarmament, arms control and nonproliferation. He also contributes a regular column on nuclear issues to Foreignpolicy.com

And very much against proliferation of war head and for dismantling of atom bomb So he has agenda that is why he put the lower number on Chinese warhead

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Here is where he used to write blog about China nuclear program

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

He still active

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[FORBIN]

True when the US was the only nuclear super power back than before both the Soviet Union and than China has their own nukes program and weapons development. Today, the US or anybody with nukes for that matter won't dare use the same nuclear bravado as before.

Ofc the numer is know he say anything... ! not to a warhead ofc FAS do excellent reports if you want i give you later the link.
About 250 warheads the number increase but very low.
But exist also magazine paper and no link for it and Masters Jeff or Popeye don' t give link in general and i trust

 

[Blackstone]

Nobody know the number of Chinese warhead because China doesn't publish the production of U 235 or Plutonium unlikeany other state
The number often quoted are guesstimate by Jeffrey Lewis
He is the one that give that number and regurgitated ad infinum by think tank, congressional research ,media
He use to work for concern scientist for proliferation of atom bomb. And he did estimate the plutonium production of China in 80 coauthor with an exchange chinese scholar who work at MIT in 80's who actually work of Chinese nuclear program. But it is an old estimate!
Dr. Lewis is the author of Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (MIT Press, 2007) and publishes

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, the leading blog on disarmament, arms control and nonproliferation. He also contributes a regular column on nuclear issues to Foreignpolicy.com

And very much against proliferation of war head and for dismantling of atom bomb So he has agenda that is why he put the lower number on Chinese warhead

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Here is where he used to write blog about China nuclear program

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

He still active

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I agree we in the public don't have good knowledge of who has how many nuclear weapons, but for purposes of discussions, CNN has a table of estimated nukes by country, based on multiple creditable sources, and it lists China at 260 nukes. Based on that, I'm very skeptical of the 1k number.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

First test Most recent test Total tests Estimated warheads

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1945 1992 1,054 7,200

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1949 1990 715 7,500

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1952 1991 45 215

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1960 1996 210 300

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1964 1996 45 260

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1974 1998 6 110-120

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1998 1998 6 120-130

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

2006 2016 (claimed) 3 Fewer than 10

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

No confirmed test No confirmed test No confirmed test 80

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

No confirmed test No confirmed test No confirmed test 0
Sources: Federation of American Scientists, CIA World Factbook, Nuclear Threat Initiative, U.S. Census Bureau

 

[Equation]

I agree we in the public don't have good knowledge of who has how many nuclear weapons, but for purposes of discussions, CNN has a table of estimated nukes by country, based on multiple creditable sources, and it lists China at 260 nukes. Based on that, I'm very skeptical of the 1k number.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I am very skeptical of CNN "sources". Western media just can't be trusted when it comes to the subject about today's China in anything.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I agree we in the public don't have good knowledge of who has how many nuclear weapons, but for purposes of discussions, CNN has a table of estimated nukes by country, based on multiple creditable sources, and it lists China at 260 nukes. Based on that, I'm very skeptical of the 1k number.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Well, the whole discussion here is about how much surplus China has above its declared stock, which is 260. Of course, all the official sources say 260 is the number because they take the official declared number. They haven't really put any thought into what the real number is and they probably weren't particularly interested in doing that when they made their values; the purpose was to simply list everyone's declared value. That study by Georgetown was a serious attempt to unmask the real number hidden by extensive underground tunneling and they say up to 3,000. I don't know what the number is; I don't even pretend to be able to guess with any accuracy. But I'm simply writing this to say that the "credible" sources that list 260 aren't really any authority on the actual number of Chinese nukes because they don't even attempt to address the question of a difference between declared value and true value.

Heck, maybe the true number is the declared number and the tunnels are only there to put enough doubt about the true number that further deterrence is achieved. Nukes that achieve their value in deterrence are never used so who's to say they need to truly exist anywhere except in the enemy's mind? (Of course it could instantly put you in a very bad spot if enemy spies were to discover this.)

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Ok an imminent ballistic test of some kind Mirved DF41 or Glide
over a large area with radius of 200km. From Henri K

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A little less than two weeks before the Chinese New Year - which will take place on January 28 this year - China could conduct a new ballistic test on Sunday, January 15 around 2:30 pm local time in the west of the country.

The analysis of the three messages to air navigators (NOTAM) shows that the scope of this test is about 2 400 km. A closed aerial segment near the Taiyuan Space Launch Center (TSLC) appears to indicate that the alleged ballistic missile will be fired from that center.

The point of impact is located south of the Taklamakan desert, in the former ballistic range of Minfeng (民丰). A zone with a radius of 200 km around the point of impact is prohibited from any overflight, whatever the altitude.

It should be noted that this zone of ballistic impact is abnormally large and measures more than 125 000 km². For comparison, during the test of the missile intercontinental DF-41 , which took place April 12, 2016, where two MiRVs were tested according to the US intelligence services, the impact zone measuring only 100 km × 60 Km, ie an area of 6,000 km², it is almost 21 times smaller than that of the test of January 15, 2017.

The size of this impact zone could indicate testing several MiRVs - the French ballistic missileM-4A can cover such a large area of 150 km × 350 km - or a maneuverable reentry vehicle type Boost- Glide.

A0113 / 17
Q) ZWUQ / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZWUQ B) 1701150630 C) 1701150645
E) THE SEGMENT Hotan VOR'HTN'-NOLEP OF ATS RTE W112 CLSD.

A0110 / 17
Q) ZBPE / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZBPE B) 1701150632 C) 1701150657
E) THE SEGMENT ERDOS VOR 'HDS'-XOGOR OF ATS RTE
W193 CLSD.

A0111 / 17
Q) ZWUQ / QRTCA / IV / BO / W / 000/999 / 3716N08433E108
A) ZWUQ B) 1701150635 C) 1701150737
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED THE AREA CENTERED AT WI N371601E0843311 RADIUS WITH THE LIMITS OF 200KM.VERTICAL : GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In yellow the aerial segments and the zone prohibited from flying over, and in white the possible trajectory of the ballistic missile. (Source: Google Earth, East Pendulum)

To be continued.

 

[Lethe]

True when the US was the only nuclear super power back than before both the Soviet Union and than China has their own nukes program and weapons development. Today, the US or anybody with nukes for that matter won't dare use the same nuclear bravado as before.

Well, the table in the book I described previously lists a number of unsuccessful attempts at nuclear coercion by the United States, extending into the recent and still relevant past: threats against Afghanistan in 1998 and 2001 attempting to coerce the extradition of Al Qaeda figures.

Unsuccessful attempts at nuclear coercion by the United States:
Vietnam 1964
North Korea 1968
Cambodia 1975
Iran 1979
Panama 1989
Iraq 1990
Serb Republic 1993
Serbia 1998
Afghanistan 1998
Iraq 1998
Afghanistan 2001

Again, successful instances of nuclear coercion (such as against the Soviet Union in 1947 to induce the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Iran) are in a separate table that is not included in the Google Books preview.

 

[Blackstone]

I am very skeptical of CNN "sources". Western media just can't be trusted when it comes to the subject about today's China in anything.

And yet we have to start discussions from some plane of reference, and since CCP hasn't seen fit to share rough numbers of their nukes, sources quoted by CNN is what's available. Unless of course you think pulling numbers out of thin air is better?

 

[Hendrik_2000]

And yet we have to start discussions from some plane of reference, and since CCP hasn't seen fit to share rough numbers of their nukes, sources quoted by CNN is what's available. Unless of course you think pulling numbers out of thin air is better?

What CNN did is exactly "pulling number from thin air" It is as good as that .
What is the basis of estimate ? When China does not publish production data on U 235
Here is the link where those number come from. It is strange that the warhead stuck at 250 over 30 years. You mean no additional warhead in the intervening years? Very strange

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

By contrast, unclassified U.S. intelligence assessments at the time suggested that China “has over 100 warheads deployed operationally on ballistic missiles. Additional warheads are in storage.” Declassified documents from the 1990s place classified estimates of the total stockpile, including a small stockpile of aircraft -delivered gravity bombs, between 200 and 250 warheads.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Even using his own estimate They should grow more than 250 since this paper is publish in 2006

Just take a look at plutonium, production. A classified DOE estimate of Chinese plutonium production, leaked to the press, places Chinese Pu stockpile at

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. This is consistent with unclassified estimates by Gronlund and Wright (2-5 metric tons) and Albright et al (4.8 metric tons). For more information, see my post

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, November 9, 2006.

Assuming 3 to 5 kilograms of plutonium per warhead, 1.7-2.8 tons of plutonium could support a force of 340 to 930 weapons. If China uses substantially more than 5 kilograms per warhead, its stockpile might only support a few hundred weapons.