No, it only shows you have no clue & understanding at all!
Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
No, it only shows you have no clue & understanding at all!
Serial numbers are somewhat arbitrary and we shouldn't automatically assume that just because we see a 36011 that means there exists 36001-36010. Sure it provides some evidence that 36001-36010 exists but it's hardly definitive evidence (like say a video of all of those aircraft would be) and it needs to be taken in context.
Given what is known of fighter development in general and PLAAF fighter development in specific as well as the current stage of the project, it is unlikely in the extreme that there current exist 11 flying prototypes all with different configurations. Not only is this far too many prototypes for this stage of development (that's probably too many prototypes in general, it's unlikely there will be 11 flying prototypes from concept to LRIP), it is very unlikely for the PLAAF to make 11 prototypes each with different configurations so early on.
All aspect broadband stealth is too good to waste on just fighting planes. Especially when the J-50 design already exists.
You can use it for any mission that requires penetrating heavy IADS.
Exactly. Guancha Trios also said in a previous podcast, "To meet so many requirements, you need to add too much advanced tech, then you'll get a very large & expensive platform. If the platform can only serve as a fighter, it's neither cost-effective nor appropriate. It should be multi-role, to make the price tag worth."
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I certainly don't doubt its multi-role performance, after all it has a 6.1m×2.15m MIWB:/
It is just possible that if at least two units are expected for static and destructive testing, then the number of our observations can be +2. And there's also the issue of recoding.
I just want to express that if this aircraft is not officially announced by the Chinese military and thrown at the air show, any changes may occur on the prototype fuselage. As we all know, the Luneburg lens of the J20 suddenly became retractable after official production.
YJ-83 will fit(if it's foldable, of course). 6.38m length is with a booster, air-launched missile doesn't have it.
Though frankly i am not exactly convinced on need to fit rather dated light ASCM inside. Maybe its future replacement?
Yes, everything is possible, even famously modifying the above encoding. As long as they're willing to fool us poor guys. I thought the old guys on this forum were used to the PLA's "evil behavior"
Need I point out a few notable changes? From the fully transparent cockpit to the reinforced frame, we even modified the shape of the canopy, the telescopic Luneberg lens, the hump behind the cockpit, the shape of the landing gear hatch, the modified tail shape, the filling materials of various access openings, the ever-changing saw teeth, etc.
我需要指出几个显著的变化吗？从完全透明的驾驶舱到加固的框架，我们甚至修改了座舱盖的形状、伸缩式龙勃透镜、驾驶舱后面的驼峰、起落架舱口的形状、改进的尾部形状、各种检修口的填充材料、不断变化的锯齿等。
Of course, they can all be considered not to be part of the "prototype".
当然，它们都可以被认为不属于“原型”的一部分。
But there is no proof of how many prototypes we counted.
但没有证据证明我们统计了多少个原型。
The convention is 6-7, perhaps excluding the one for static damage testing and static modification.
惯例是6-7，可能不包括静态损伤测试和静态修改。
I have a 2k photo, now how about you tell me if it is transparent or some kind of closed material?
我有一张 2k 的照片，现在你能告诉我它是透明的还是某种封闭的材质吗？
Of course you take the numbers you observed seriously, but the only source that tells you what happened is obviously the results of observing J10. Will J36 be used? Do you have an answer?
Not if there is a language issue between both of us, but I do not see any relevance between your image and your post: "36011 means that there is a great possibility that there are 10 prototypes between 36001-36010, and each one may change some of the above configurations."
In fact the chance is surely not ZERO esp. if the want to fool us, but IMO the chance is much greater they try to fool us with that number and it is the first aircraft than there are actually already 11!
Changes being made during the development phase is entirely normal. Nobody is saying there will not be changes. What we are saying is that this is not proof there are 11 flying prototypes.
I am not sure what you are trying to say here, I think the language barrier is a problem. What do you mean by they are "considered not to be part of the "prototype"."?
Proof of how many prototypes we counted? We only know of 1, maybe 2 if the newer video shows a different one but it could just be the previous flying prototype being modified.
Yes 6-7 over the course of development is much more reasonable. J-36 is not even close to completing development. That is why saying there are 11 flying prototypes right now is not believable.
I don't think they're trying to fool anybody. Any reasonably informed observer would find 11 currently flying prototypes at this stage to be absurd. PLAAF surely knows this wouldn't fool anybody worth trying to fool (like US intelligence community or whatever). The much more likely explanation is just internal quirks of the serial numbering system and not some conspiracy to tell an obvious lie for no gain. In other words, it's a nothing burger, nobody is trying to fool anybody.