Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

[tphuang]

Curiously, while Cute Orca is rather cautious/reserved on his views on the Chinese military aircraft engines, he's unusually optimistic (or based on my viewpoint) regarding this:

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Do NOTE the bolded and underlined phrase "my personal guess" (个人猜测).

Perhaps the registration number we saw on the J-36 during its first flight (36011 instead of 36001) could be indicative of the aircraft being a more advanced demonstrator/prototype than previous expectations, which may have been a factor in such a deduction.

Though, I think I'd be more inclined to believe that the J-36 would join the test and evaluation squadron/brigade by 2029/2030, and combat squadron/brigades by 2031/2032.

As a side note: The J-XDS wouldn't be far off the J-36, IMHO. The carrier-based variant might add 2-5 years, unless it is also developed and tested concurrently with the land-based counterpart.

That's definitely more aggressive than I would've expected, but J-36 did fly with something closer to the final design than when J-20 first flew.

I do think there is a difference between entering service vs developing full combat capabilities though. Many of the things that I've been hoping to see on J-36 like controlling UCAVs and becoming a major EW platform are things that take more years to fully develop and likely not reaching "FOC" until much later.

 

[AndrewS]

Many things may happen much earlier than we used to believe. If we take No.36011 as mature as J20's No.2011 prototype (2014), then there are only 3 years before we see J36 enters service. If that's the case, J36 then may just be equipped with 3 WS-15 (may slightly modified to suit higher trust & altitude), better sensors and are stealthier compared to existing 5th gen fighters. More of a 5++ gen aircraft. The full version of J36 may appear years after service.

Even with WS-15 engines, I think it would still qualify as a sixth gen aircraft.

Future adaptive engines would mean about a 10% thrust difference and some range.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

A year ago, I doubt most here would have expected Chinese 6th gens to be unveiled so soon.

Time and again, their pace has surpassed expectations (though not in all areas). Perhaps it's time to revise the assumed rate of change.

 

[siegecrossbow]

To be fair Yankeesama claimed that J-36 is a bit like F-14 in the early 70s — the Soviets expected it to be an F-111B replacement but were shocked by the generation leaping capabilities it provided. However, the F-14 is also an early fourth gen aircraft that retained some 3rd gen characteristics. I think that early J-36 will be similar in the same sense. As the platform matures and PLAAF and AVIc figures out additional characteristics of “sixth gen” it will improve incrementally, like the J-20 did for the past decade.