Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

[siegecrossbow]

Ultimately there’s no real utility in the argument who flew its 6th gen first. It’s who starts operating them that counts. Also it’s kind of crazy that “who flew 6th gen first” is a serious question people are asking it just goes to show how far China has come in military aviation development.

More like who can operate them at scale efficiently that matters.

 

[iewgnem]

Ultimately there’s no real utility in the argument who flew its 6th gen first. It’s who starts operating them that counts. Also it’s kind of crazy that “who flew 6th gen first” is a serious question people are asking it just goes to show how far China has come in military aviation development.

This is US Air Combat Command chief said back in 2022

“I cannot tell you today what’s going on in China except they’re planning for their 20th National Party Congress [in October]. But I can tell you what’s not happening. They’re not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance. And I can also tell you they’re on track,” ACC commander

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said during a roundtable with reporters at the Air and Space Force Association’s Air, Space and Cyber conference last week.

The US Air Force needs to “make sure we get to six-gen air dominance at least a month prior to our competitors,” Kelly said.

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China flew the 1st 6th gen, China also flew the 2nd 6th gen, that's just how it is.
The fact that China can afford two while US can't afford one means the race is already over.

IMO the debate should really be did CAC flew the world's first 6th gen or did SAC flew the world's first 6th gen.

 

[zyklon]

Claims without footage is simply ultimately not worth much.

While I wouldn't trust most members of Congress to watch my dog, the uniformed senior leadership at the USAF remains reasonably credible, at least when it comes to a binary question like whether a NGAD prototype has flown or not.

However, it's obvious whatever they have as is isn't satisfactory, otherwise Frank Kendall wouldn't have put the program on "pause."

One scenario that would trigger or at least contribute to such a "pause" would be if NASIC or some other agency with a good view of Chengdu realized that their Chinese counterparts had progressed to a point that was more than what they had anticipated or were prepared for with their existing bids.

 

[Xiongmao]

I'm calling it, NGAD first flight is propaganda and they only tested a couple components or flew a subscale demonstrator

And the project got halted because it turned out their tech is junk

You heard it first here folks

I can believe this. The US has lost the competency to pull off large projects. They can't even get back to the moon even though they did it 50 years ago. When was the last non-military thing that the US did that knocked your socks off? For me it was the Space Shuttle back in the early 80s.

 

[latenlazy]

Ultimately there’s no real utility in the argument who flew its 6th gen first. It’s who starts operating them that counts. Also it’s kind of crazy that “who flew 6th gen first” is a serious question people are asking it just goes to show how far China has come in military aviation development.

I mean if we’re being forthright the reason the argument is even being brought up is because these two flights indicate China will be fielding its 6th gen platforms before the US does. Arguing about who flew first is just an attempt to shoot down the notion that this is what will happen. We can all judge for ourselves how meaningful those points are to real forecasting though.

 

[sndef888]

I can believe this. The US has lost the competency to pull off large projects. They can't even get back to the moon even though they did it 50 years ago. When was the last non-military thing that the US did that knocked your socks off? For me it was the Space Shuttle back in the early 80s.

It makes complete sense

Kendall did not precisely specify how long the service’s plans to field the

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fighter may be pushed out, casting the pause as consistent with previous comments on taking a “hard look” at the jet’s design. But he did share that officials are “tak[ing] a few months right now to figure out whether we’ve got the right design and make sure we’re on the right course.”

People are just not thinking it because we're still subconsciously affected by propaganda of America being competent

 

[latenlazy]

People are just not thinking it because we're still subconsciously affected by propaganda of America being competent

Heh we’ve had more than a decade of US program delivery failures now. F-35, hypersonics, next generation ships, take your pick…

 

[Blitzo]

Heh we’ve had more than a decade of US program delivery failures now. F-35, hypersonics, next generation ships, take your pick…

B-21 however seems to be progressing well and at budget or below budget.

The US remains far from incompetent in big ticket military procurement and development.


That said this is also off topic, and overall doesn't change the fact that expectations of military tech competition between the PRC and US has now evolved to a new phase of genuine competition afoot.

 

[valysre]

I can believe this. The US has lost the competency to pull off large projects. They can't even get back to the moon even though they did it 50 years ago. When was the last non-military thing that the US did that knocked your socks off? For me it was the Space Shuttle back in the early 80s.

I Can't Believe It's Not Butter! is pretty impressive too, but that's also early 80s.

Dumb jokes aside, recent (for a given value of 'recent', the issue goes back almost 40 years now) projects all seem to have gone quite pear-shaped. I look forward to watching the American's mad scramble to produce a credible 6th generation fighter by next Christmas.

 

[iewgnem]

B-21 however seems to be progressing well and at budget or below budget.

The US remains far from incompetent in big ticket military procurement and development.


That said this is also off topic, and overall doesn't change the fact that expectations of military tech competition between the PRC and US has now evolved to a new phase of genuine competition afoot.

The fact that the cheap B-2 restart now cost $800M per frame is not that different from failure....