Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?

To be fair, it's premature to speculate just how the J-36 will stack up against the NGAD, assuming both programs will enter service.

In fact, no one will really know for decades on how things really stack up, especially in terms of all aspect stealth and broadband stealth, outside of a SCIF or SAPF.

However, considering the current state of the NGAD program, and the rapid progress that the Chinese aviation industry has made in bridging its technological gap with the US, no reasonable person should be surprised if the PLAAF fields a comparable 6th generation fighter or fighter/bomber around the same time as or even before the USAF.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?

It’s tortoise and hare. They’ve dicked around so much with the massive generational advantage they had that, well, today happened.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?
Claims without footage is simply ultimately not worth much. It's the same as with H-20 development, it was claimed as flown many times or progressed here or there, but there's nothing to back up that it exists out of a design and powerpoints.

In the end US (just as one can say China too, hence why I never trusted H-20 claims) has things to gain from making oversized claims, and it has arguably a very spotty record when it comes to being truthful. I would say if US feels so provoked that it is now behind China or at least so by public perception, they can easily reverse it just by showing that they have similar or better prototypes. If they don't, well either there isn't anything to show, or maybe they're content knowing that both parties are still neck to neck and they will show something once they have it presentable.

US embarrassed itself a little imho by claiming a lot with B-21. But we should remember that after the Mig-25 came the F-15 and after F-15 came the Flanker. Who is to say final NGAD will not be to J-XX aircraft like Flanker ended up being to all the F-teens? US should never be assumed to be out of the race, but if they don't show something relevant, then we have no choice but to assume they're behind for the moment. (but it doesn't mean they're out, far from it)
 

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
However, considering the current state of the NGAD program, and the rapid progress that the Chinese aviation industry has made in bridging its technological gap with the US, no reasonable person should be surprised if the PLAAF fields a comparable 6th generation fighter or fighter/bomber around the same time as or even before the USAF.

Absolutely agree with this!
 

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?
And what make you think China haven't flown secret demonstrators before the US did too?

I think some people need to realize everyone has black projects, I think someone need to realize if China flew an aircraft in broad daylight above a city of 20 million people all with smartphones, imagine what China has that they haven't shown.

The fact that US sent NGAD back to the drawing board tells you pretty conclusively that, they'd rather you never see it, than see it and realize just how behind US is.

1735258802673.png
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?
We don’t know what flew for the US. At least the CAC fighter seems to contain a whole lot of complete systems. If the NGAD that supposedly flew was a subscale aerodynamic mockup then it’s not really a comparable achievement. If the NGAD program is under review and about to get overhauled (for like the third time mind) that would suggest whatever flew wasn’t even a committed design. Burden of proof etc etc.
 

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
US is going to lose because of cost, not a technology issue. The reason US wants to build b21 because B2 is way too expensive (1+billion per piece).. B21 is not much cheaper.. I just looked up the cost. It is 700m+ per piece for b21.

U.S intended to build 130+ B2 but not possible due to high cost. B21 will end up the same fate as B2.

Year after year, cost will go up. 700m+ at today's cost will be 800m+ in a few years.
It is very much a technology issue, there's nothing about a subsonic two engine standard altitude bomber that make it remotely capable of serving in the role of NGAD.

China has GJ-11 and other flying wings and China used a J-20S CCA controller as chase plane, this is them telling you no, China does not consider B-21 or CCA to be advanced.
 

SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think some people need to realize that the US has already flown demonstrators for NGAD as far back as about five or so years ago. Yes, the program was put under review, but I don't think the revealing of these aircraft indicates China is ahead of the US. Imagine if we had gotten pictures of those demonstrators when they first flew? How different would the narrative be surrounding the flight these aircraft today?
My impression is that the J-36 is comparable, in terms of development process, to the F-22 EMD that first flew in 1997. Meanwhile, the NGAD tech demonstrators are only comparable to the YF-22 that first flew in 1990.

I believe that a Chinese 6th gen tech demonstrator already flew a couple years ago, namely this one:
J-XX.jpg
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
Ultimately there’s no real utility in the argument who flew its 6th gen first. It’s who starts operating them that counts. Also it’s kind of crazy that “who flew 6th gen first” is a serious question people are asking it just goes to show how far China has come in military aviation development.
 
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