Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....
Most people in China view real estate as money making object, not as a place to live. It's creating a huge bubble.
Local government to satisfied GDP requirement, keep on building empty office buildings.
Build what's needed, not base on future projections.
My friend, from what you have written here... obviously you have no idea what is happening in the real world. Stop hiding in your study room and come out, then look around you for once.
Take this simple scenario... if you are a manufacturing company who wanted to set up a manufacturing factory in a place. What will you look to? what is the most important factor to consider?
1) Supporting infrastructure - readied roads, water supplies, buildings that you could lodge your workers in, electricity, etc
2) Security and stability - stable government, stable and secured environment
3) Supporting industries - it is needed for your surrounding - preferably within 3 hours driving distance, to have supporting industries for your factory or products.
4) Government incentive - in the form of tax incentive, rebates, even double tax treaties with your individual country (if you are a foreign investor).
Of course there are other consideration like skilled workers availability, etc. But I am not here to give you a free lecture, so the abovementioned will do for now.
So lets come to point one - if china is only going to build what you need for now and not the future projections, how would you actually expect or even hope investor from moving inwards into China and enable a uniform growth? You can bet your ass, that people will continue to try to migrate to the already overcrowded coastal cities... and what will happen?
1) Social problem - many will be jobless... and left stranded there.
2) Economic overheating - especially in the real estate area.
3) Unbalanced developement whereby coastal areas were mighty rich and the rest of the country is in slump.
4) Unbalance distribution of resources - whereby manufacturing areas needed more resources and so snatched up a larger chunk... when I say resources, I don't just means skilled workers here... but water (factory use and for human consumption, electricity, etc).
5) Unbalance tax system and income for the country (the coastal area will have to support more and so increases in the tax... which could sometime be unbearable)
6) etc, etc.
So you tell me, is it important to build up the infrastructure... also if the infrastructure are thoroughly built up and more investment and factories are set up in the inner china, people will start migrating back to their respective homeland... so a more distributed population, and without that much people in those overheating cities in the coastal areas, do you still think it would be profitable for real estate agents to keep building buildings that will not sell?
All these are kind of a common sense stuff, you do not need a professor or an airforce officer to tell you that. All you need to do is to look around the current trend and thats it.
