Behind the China Missile Hype

delft

Brigadier
Also it should be pointed out that the DF-21D's warhead will be glowing whitehot as it re-enters the atmosphere and offers an inviting target to any IR sensor and IR guided weapon within range
The re-entry vehicle might be water cooled. This was developed at Technical University Delft some 15 years ago.
 

IronsightSniper

Junior Member
The SM3 is tested against... targets which path and launch was known; so if you consider that "tested" then why not the Chinese tests on stationary targets for the DF21 as "Tested"?

Well there's a difference actually, this comes from again, velocity. The SM-3 was able to hit the malfunctioning USA-193 satellite that which was falling to earth at about Mach 23. Though the trajectory of the satellite was known, the trajectory of the terminal stage of the DF-21D is most likely predictable also, as the exoatmospheric intercept window for the DF-21D should be wide enough so that the warhead bus would not be readjusting it's course for impact against the target.

In comparison, the DF-21D was tested against a rotating concrete slab that happened to be the size of the Nimitz. If that concrete slab was programed to maneuver in an unpredictable course at 35 knots, that would be a valid test of the DF-21D's guidance system and accuracy. However, it was simply, a rotating concrete slab. So although the test did demonstrate the DF-21D's accuracy against a rotating ship, it did not demonstrate it's accuracy against a moving and rotating ship, which is the most realistic example.

Unless you have been missing the entire discussion on KE warheads, A 600 KG warhead at Mach 12 no matter KE or PE, will hit at the force equivilant of ~1000 tonnes of TNT by shear impact. Sub munitions at 2 KG each, traveling at that speed is estimated to be able to penetrate 1000 - 2000 mm of solid armor grade steel.

With that speed, you can basically shoot through the thickest part of USS Iowa and out the other side of the ship.

lol. There is no solid estimation of the penetrative power of "2 kg submunitions" at Mach 12. They can penetrate 25 mm of steel or a 1,000 mm of steel, we just don't know because there's no equation (that I know of) to estimate the penetrative power of a spherical object.

And it's unlikely anything would go straight through the Iowa other than an EFP. KE projectiles will tend to deform mid-way, if it doesn't blow up, that is.

And if you read earlier, we calculated and tried 30 mm WHA balls, which can penetrate around 200 mm of armor ~2000 balls. If it hits, the crew will be shreaded

Again, no one did any calculations pertaining to the penetrative power of spherical sub-munitions. It's also unlikely that a small diameter submunition (such as a 0.5" ball of DU) would penetrate enough armor and sheer space to actually do much damage to the crew.

Which also means, that the traditional advantage a carrier held -> ability to deliver a shit load of munition is lost; hence DF21 would be successful already. IT means, that the CVN will have serious issues trying to protect landing ships, or other assets which may be trying to interfere with China's

Not exactly. The USN has already started and made plenty of headway into arsenal ships. In fact, IIRC, there's about 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles that's on board some Ohio class SSGNs that's patrolling within launch range of the PRC. Not to mention that because the USN's ships have modular VLS, who's to say that the Ticonderoga or Arleigh Burke class ships that are escorting the CV wouldn't also be loaded with Tomahawks themselves.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Whitehot is irrelevant since it's moving at mach 10. What does it say about the SM-3 that some other missile will do the job with infrared? Why did they need the SM-3 or any ABM if anything with a heat-seeker will do the job? It's because someone is throwing everything out there and just blowing smoke again. How's this for counter smoke? Whitehot burning through the atmosphere means it generates plasma and thus will be stealthy and undetectable.
 

IronsightSniper

Junior Member
Whitehot is irrelevant since it's moving at mach 10. What does it say about the SM-3 that some other missile will do the job with infrared? Why did they need the SM-3 or any ABM if anything with a heat-seeker will do the job? It's because someone is throwing everything out there and just blowing smoke again. How's this for counter smoke? Whitehot burning through the atmosphere means it generates plasma and thus will be stealthy and undetectable.

Because you need range, too :D
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
let me just say this, to be true OPERATIONAL, the test HAS to conduct in an environment the missiles was design for. so far china haven't test that yet. but SM3 was test it many time in the environment it was design for.

---------- Post added at 10:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 AM ----------

The re-entry vehicle might be water cooled. This was developed at Technical University Delft some 15 years ago.

not gonna happen with that speed, area, and heat. you mean water cool the internal system??

people still forgot the diffcult part is detect, id, and track the carriers. if DF21 is fired, that means 80% of job is already done. its easier to stop DF21 by disable its weakest link.
 
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NikeX

Banned Idiot
Do have hearing problem or what?. 4 different peoples have come out and said it has been tested overland and they have high confidence that it will work. Navy intel chief Jack Dorsett, Admiral Mullen, Gen Gen Bingde,Taiwan Intel chief Tsai Der Sheng

If the DF-21D is decided to be used it will be against a MOVING TARGET OPERATING AT SEA. So far this missile has not been tested even to the point of firing at a stationary target at sea.

Shoot it at a deserted island or sandbar and end the speculation. A demonstration like that would go along way to making the world believe that DF-21D is a viable weapon system. The fact that nothing like this has happened causes doubts to surface about the effectiveness of this miracle weapon

As far as testing on a target on land that simulates a carrier, then why haven't the Chinese created a wooden mockup of the carrier, mounted that on railway tracks and hit it with this DF-21D while the target was moving?

They haven't because they cannot. DF-21D is a bluff.

Remember the Chinese are attempting to do something that noone has ever tried. And there is a reason for that

These pictures you posted mean nothing. Using PS anyone can try and convince the world that they have 'tested' the DF-21D on a carrier sized target but you know in your heart that it is just hype.

Oh and the words of these Navy people can easily be explained as fear mongering designed to pump up a threat needed when asking for a larger budget for when the military goes before Congress.

---------- Post added at 12:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:05 PM ----------

The re-entry vehicle might be water cooled. This was developed at Technical University Delft some 15 years ago.

Water is heavy. Every pound of water carried to cool the warhead is a pound less of explosive needed to engage the target. Think!

---------- Post added at 12:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:08 PM ----------

I thought you said there would be cloud cover protecting carriers. Now you say it's not just so you can say Chinese satellites will be shot down? Love your contradictions. Satellites for China are only a factor. China isn't as dependent on satellites as you are. Also you forget Chinese subs will get within torpedo range because that has happened before and not on paper. And also launch anti-ship missiles too. Remember like the obsolete Seersucker that hit Kuwait City without anyone ever detecting it in the middle of a war.

Your lack of knowledge caused you to misinterpret what was being said. To clarify what is being stated just look at this picture of the Varyag sailing in the Yellow Sea and imagine the cloud cover being just a bit heavier. The DF-21D would have a tough time finding this ship while traveling at Mach 10. And they were not even attempting to hide

Regarding Chinese submarines the CVN is escorted by at least one or two very quiet Los Angeles class or Virginia class subs which would be sure to take care of any Chinese subs attempting to get too close to the CVN.

Try again

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---------- Post added at 12:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 PM ----------

Which is 3000 km from the Chinese launch site. meaning with the F35 with a combat radius of 1100 km.... will mean the carrier is combat ineffective -> mission killed.

What was meant was this. The ability of the F-35 to DETECT the launch of a DF-21D as soon as it cleared the horizon.

So some how the smoke is tailored to Chinese frequencies and not american ones? Won't the Chinese radar just operate on American frequencies then to bypass the smoke? more fantasy than science; if you can see through the smoke, I bet someone else could too.

The smoke has particles suspended that act like chaff. And like chaff it is tailored for certain frequencies of radars that would be used to home in on the CVN. I have posted this article several times. I wish somebody would read it since it answers all the questions you and others are raising about the modern use of smoke or as it is known today: OBSCURANTS. Please note the bold parts of the quote. There are only so many ways to home in on a target. And like the Pershing 2 where the Chinese came up with the idea for a DF-21D, the homing radar is in the millimeter portion of the spectrum band

"....The application of obscurants on the modern battlefield has been widely examined by U.S. Army strategists and operators for over a decade and a half; (2) obscurants are firmly imbedded in U.S. Army doctrine. (3) Moreover, the effectiveness of obscurants against a panoply of terminal homing systems, from the visual to the millimeter-wave spectrum, is proven. In simple terms, the particles suspended in the medium of smoke can be adjusted in size to absorb and diffuse radar waves emanating from the seeker heads of incoming antiship missiles, thereby denying any homing information to the missile. In the modern naval battle space, where antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are a principal threat, adapting obscurant systems and developing tactics and operational schemes for their use at sea is prudent. Given the stark potential of antiship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), this adaptation may be essential. (4)

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Now do some math before concluding, when the DF21 is red hot, it will be what? 20 km up? 20 km is only 5 seconds of flight time. try to detect, locate, launch countermeasures and intercept at a safe distance in 5 seconds.

Nike-X which became SPRINT accomplished these types of warhead intercepts decades ago. Check out SPRINT. It had 21 successful intercepts of incoming warhead. A remarkable piece of technology that has not been equaled even today

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delft

Brigadier
you mean water cool the internal system??
I mean having a steel heat shield cooled on the inside by a steam generator and exhausting the steam over the outside of the heat shield. If you want to reduce the IR signature of you re-entry vehicle, well here is way to do it. It was developed to reduce the weight of the heat shield system so I suppose you can add to the weight of explosive.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
I mean having a steel heat shield cooled on the inside by a steam generator and exhausting the steam over the outside of the heat shield. If you want to reduce the IR signature of you re-entry vehicle, well here is way to do it. It was developed to reduce the weight of the heat shield system so I suppose you can add to the weight of explosive.

consider the size of missile cone, speed, temperture reach upto 7000 kelvin, water cooling the exterior is not possible. you need ALOT water to cool that kind of tempture and surface area, the missile has to hold other stuff like guidance, warhead, sensor, electronic etc. no matter how much it cool, it still gonna generate IR signature, not enough space and not worth it. beside its not only IR sensor the missile has to worry about, there is RF, and other type of sensor to detect missiles.

also its the Air got heat up by the friction, so the AIR itself is hot, not just the heat shield
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Your lack of knowledge caused you to misinterpret what was being said. To clarify what is being stated just look at this picture of the Varyag sailing in the Yellow Sea and imagine the cloud cover being just a bit heavier. The DF-21D would have a tough time finding this ship while traveling at Mach 10. And they were not even attempting to hide

Regarding Chinese submarines the CVN is escorted by at least one or two very quiet Los Angeles class or Virginia class subs which would be sure to take care of any Chinese subs attempting to get too close to the CVN.

Try again

Aren't you the one hiding behind smoke as the all-purpose defense against every weapon ever created? That was your one argument. Now since your smoke screen has so many holes in it, you've moved on. What does that say?

And you're clearly in denial that the fact is the speed of the ASBM makes your smoke nonsense and weather irrelevant and that's why there's alarm over it. The ASBM moves faster than weather and you wouldn't get up your smoke screen fast enough to which you're in a panick because you can't decide to be sitting still hoping the weather is calm and the smoke hangs around or get your butt out of there leaving the smoke trailing behind you. When the Chinese spot the carrier it will most likely be because of clear weather so no chance of cloud cover to protect you. So why are you showing a picture of the Varyag? Is this you taunting that the Varyag can be spotted by satellites or are you saying God is on your side because he gives the Varyag clear weather to be spotted while everyone's elses are covered in clouds? That's what you've been basically arguing that you control the uncontrollable.

Is this more factual information you don't know? Ever hear of the Kitty Hawk incident? They had sub escorts and a Song submarine surfaced within torpedo range without being detected to say hello. That trumps whatever non-real war tests you give evidence. Can't detect a noisy Chinese sub and add the more advance than the obsolete Seersucker that wasn't detected anti-ship missiles in China's arsenal and you can understand your hyped invulnerablity is in the realm of fanboy fantasy. Again if your arguments were true, why is there any alarm over inferior China? You wouldn't need to take steps. Remember the one Gotland SSK that sunk the entire Royal Navy in an exercise. I would believe the Royal Navy has some pretty advanced stuff too.
 
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delft

Brigadier
consider the size of missile cone, speed, temperture reach upto 7000 kelvin, water cooling the exterior is not possible. you need ALOT water to cool that kind of tempture and surface area, the missile has to hold other stuff like guidance, warhead, sensor, electronic etc. no matter how much it cool, it still gonna generate IR signature, not enough space and not worth it. beside its not only IR sensor the missile has to worry about, there is RF, and other type of sensor to detect missiles.

also its the Air got heat up by the friction, so the AIR itself is hot, not just the heat shield
Between the hot air and the heat shield there is that layer of steam.
 
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