Behind the China Missile Hype

escobar · Feb 5, 2012

IronsightSniper said:
Well, anything to the US DoD threatens it, really

How big of a threat is really the issue. Certainly however, the DF-21D, being the first AShBM, is going to pose a threat. But is the threat as damning as some would claim (to the extent that U.S. supremacy in the Pacific has ended)? Absolutely not. But can the DF-21D challenge the USN and any of it's CBG in the region? Absolutely.

Like plenty have iterated, the DF-21D is not the "wunderwaffe" of the PRC. It is simply another tool in it's arsenal, and though a large and powerful tool, it certainly doesn't end US dominance of the region.

Nobody said or even think that DF-21D role is to end USN dominance in the pacific.
It is a deterrence weapon: Make USN think twice before sailing carrier up to the coast.
And it is doing his job without a single over-water test.

peterAustralia · Feb 5, 2012

Chinas economy is set to match that of the US by 2016. After that it will have a higher total GDP. You can be that China is spending billions on advanced sensors, radars, technolgy and missiles. The DF21 is just another tool in their arsenal. In the past US carriers could pass close to the Chinese Coast and feel relatively secure. Now they have to sail ever further away to enjoy the same feeling of security.

Note that the new Chinese steath aircraft (J20?) could provide up to the second targeting information for all Chinese weapon systems. Be that anti ship missles launched by aircraft, anti ship missiles lauched by submarnines, torpedos launched from submarines and also ballistic missiles. What happens if the J20 is equipped with a supersonic and or stealth cruise missile?

Keep launching enough missiles and eventually some are going to get through. Additionally just this one missile system the DF21, is going to cause a lot of headaches to the US, forcing them to spend billions of dollars on a countermeasure which might work.

Note that with the US still in deficit, and China in surplus, it forces the US to spend money that it does not have. Note that 100 years ago the largest Navy in the world was the Royal Navy. Over time the British economy could not sustain such a large military spending, and they had to cut their military spending simply to remain solvent. Thus military power is linked to economic power. Until the US gets its finances in order it will have problems sustaining its military financially. The slope migh take decades but in time China will have more warships than the US simply because its economy will be that much larger. They are investing billions in technology and graduates, eventually their technological deficit will narrow down to very little. Where are plasma TVs made? Which country makes the most cars? Which country has the worlds fastest super computer.

The important issue is the trend. The gap between China and the US is narrowing. The time when US carriers could cruise the coast of China with impunity is coming to an end. When was the exact time it was no longer safe to do so, was is 5 years ago, is it 3 years from now? Put your clock forward to the year 2017, would any US Navy Admiral put a carrier within 500km of the Chinese coast if there were hostilities, I very much doubt it.

delft · Feb 5, 2012

Hendrik_2000 said:
There are thousands of patents purportedly to solve some problem but never panned out and languishing in patent office.The patent office doesn't evaluate effectiveness of an invention It only criteria is whether it violate the law of physics that all. So it doesn't say anything about effectiveness

Again this supposedly magic weapon is developed in 2002.This device look like small canister now how much smoke can it generate to cover 1000 ft behemoth . 9 years has passed and the Chinese also have equivalent called bodyguard system. So they know the physics and can developed counter measure .

Yeah smoke and aerosol solve all your problem ok then no ABM no SM3 missile just generate the smoke and sleep well at night nothing to worry.All the new missile like Brimstone are rendered useless
.

Hendrik_2000, you'r an optimist. Only a few years ago patent offices decided not to allow perpetual motion machines, so they do now look at violations of the second law of thermodynamics, but I doubt if they consider any other physical law. Otherwise I agree with you.

---------- Post added at 03:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:33 PM ----------

AssassinsMace said:
Apples and oranges. How the army uses "smoke" is not the same as the navy? Again you can't control the weather on the high seas. You would have to deploy a lot of smoke with this added agent to cover a fleet of ships.

Also how much smoke can you deploy in the minutes you discover an ASBM is launched? Are you going to stand still and hope the weather is still so the smoke hangs around or are you going to get your butt out of there at full speed to leave the smoke behind you?

If you make full speed the missile might well recognize the wave pattern you make and hit you.

escobar · Feb 5, 2012

Note that the new Chinese steath aircraft (J20?) could provide up to the second targeting information for all Chinese weapon systems. Be that anti ship missles launched by aircraft, anti ship missiles lauched by submarnines, torpedos launched from submarines and also ballistic missiles. What happens if the J20 is equipped with a supersonic and or stealth cruise missile?

J-20 role is Air-superiority not strike ships with AShCM. You can't fit a cruise missile in his bay. He could do some ISR operation
but i don't think it is designed to do that

Note that with the US still in deficit, and China in surplus, it forces the US to spend money that it does not have. Note that 100 years ago the largest Navy in the world was the Royal Navy. Over time the British economy could not sustain such a large military spending, and they had to cut their military spending simply to remain solvent. Thus military power is linked to economic power. Until the US gets its finances in order it will have problems sustaining its military financially.

USA economy will be fine in the long term. True they have to cut their military spending in this decade.
But after the DoD will get his money back.

The important issue is the trend. The gap between China and the US is narrowing.

Yep the issue is not today china conventional military weakness against US but the military gap-narrowing trend.

NikeX · Feb 5, 2012

So you are trying to argue that a SM3 is not hype that it can defeat a DF21, while a DF21 is a hype that cannot threaten a carrier?

SM3 has been tested over and over again. And it has been tested for the world to see. DF-21D has been a subject of speculation as the world is not even sure it even can perform its stated mission

In other words lets see what this fantastic weapon can do and have it come out of the shadows.

An untested weapon system with as complex a mission as is claimed for DF-21D is just hype. Many people believe that the DF-21D cannot deliver.

---------- Post added at 03:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:26 PM ----------

And you have not addressed most of the things I have brought up just because of the existence of the DF21D.

- Reaction time of a ballistic missile defense system
- KE and sub munition on a ballistic missile
- That the CVBG needs to be sailing within 1000 km for her strike aircraft to operate -> 2-4 minutes reaction time, if further, the carrier is already mission killed
- If smoke is deployed, it obstructs and prevents the operation of the carrier aircraft, therefore mission killing it.

Let me respond to them now:

Reaction time of an ABM system is measured in minutes. Remember the Russians and Americans are old hands at developing ABM systems, while the Chinese have never developed a ASBM even in theory. This system here will provide even better warning time of a ASBM launch towards the carrier.

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'......Membrane Optic Imager Real-Time Exploitation (MOIRE) program under contract to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Ball Aerospace is incrementally demonstrating technologies needed to develop a large, lightweight geosynchronous space-based telescope using advanced diffractive optics membrane to provide persistent, real-time, tactical video to the war fighter'

That is real time as in watching ALL THE TIME for a launch signature

"...It would be able to image an area greater than 100 x 100 km with a video update rate of at least one frame a second, providing a 99% chance of detecting a Scud-class missile launch.

How will the DF-21D hide its launch signature towards the CVN?

Its another headache for the DF-21D

AssassinsMace · Feb 5, 2012

And China would just shoot down or dazzle those satellites. And then Aegis or aircraft would have to come within range of plenty of other weapons to detect any launches.

NikeX · Feb 5, 2012

Lezt said:
- Reaction time of a ballistic missile defense system
- KE and sub munition on a ballistic missile
- That the CVBG needs to be sailing within 1000 km for her strike aircraft to operate -> 2-4 minutes reaction time, if further, the carrier is already mission killed
- If smoke is deployed, it obstructs and prevents the operation of the carrier aircraft, therefore mission killing it.
.

Sub munitions might inflict some damage on the carrier, if they manage to spread their payload pattern in a way that includes the carrier. But as accidents on the CVN have shown, several 500 and 1000 pound bombs can go off on the flight deck and the carrier can remain mission capable. It is unlikely that the sub munitions can deliver the explosive power of several 500 and 1000 pound bombs. They are just too small

Advances in damage control will make it more difficult for any munition to knock out the carrier. This includes advanced firefighting techniques on the flight deck and through out the ship

And with advanced warning the CVN can be prepared for any sub munition attack

---------- Post added at 04:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:20 PM ----------

AssassinsMace said:
And China would just shoot down or dazzle those satellites. And then Aegis or aircraft would have to come within range of plenty of other weapons to detect any launches.

Then the reply would be to shoot down or dazzle Chinese sea surveillance satellites thereby blinding the most important part of the DF-21D kill chain. Its called tit for tat

Without the ability to detect and track the CVN by Chinese sea surveillance satellites the DF-21D is useless

---------- Post added at 04:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:24 PM ----------

Lezt said:
And you have not addressed most of the things I have brought up just because of the existence of the DF21D.

- Reaction time of a ballistic missile defense system
- KE and sub munition on a ballistic missile
- That the CVBG needs to be sailing within 1000 km for her strike aircraft to operate -> 2-4 minutes reaction time, if further, the carrier is already mission killed
- If smoke is deployed, it obstructs and prevents the operation of the carrier aircraft, therefore mission killing it.
.

- That the CVBG needs to be sailing within 1000 km for her strike aircraft to operate -> 2-4 minutes reaction time, if further, the carrier is already mission killed

Answer: With systems like these the carrier can use it aircraft to standoff and launch strikes. This is being launched from a F-35

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Note: the further away the carrier is from the DF-21D launchers the longer the flight time of the missile to the CVN and the more time the CVN has to react

The smart thing is too operate on the extreme edge of the DF-21D's range and dare them to launch at you.

- If smoke is deployed, it obstructs and prevents the operation of the carrier aircraft, therefore mission killing it.

Answer: Sorry but the radar opaque smoke is no different that cloud cover as far as air operations on the CVN are concerned. The carrier would NOT deploy smoke that would blind itself.

Meanwhile the poor DF-21D with its limited onboard radar is confused trying to look through this radar hiding countermeasure as it tries to accomplish its mission screaming in at Mach 10

---------- Post added at 04:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:42 PM ----------

Also it should be pointed out that the DF-21D's warhead will be glowing whitehot as it re-enters the atmosphere and offers an inviting target to any IR sensor and IR guided weapon within range

Another headache.

Hendrik_2000 · Feb 5, 2012

NikeX said:
SM3 has been tested over and over again. And it has been tested for the world to see. DF-21D has been a subject of speculation as the world is not even sure it even can perform its stated mission

In other words lets see what this fantastic weapon can do and have it come out of the shadows.

An untested weapon system with as complex a mission as is claimed for DF-21D is just hype. Many people believe that the DF-21D cannot deliver.

Do have hearing problem or what?. 4 different peoples have come out and said it has been tested overland and they have high confidence that it will work. Navy intel chief Jack Dorsett, Admiral Mullen, Gen Gen Bingde,Taiwan Intel chief Tsai Der Sheng

Navy intel chief: Chinese missile is effective

By Ben Iannotta - C4ISR Journal
Posted : Wednesday Jan 5, 2011 20:31:25 EST

Officials were surprised by China’s rapid development of a ballistic missile thought capable of striking ships at sea, but the jury is still out as to whether Internet images of a purported Chinese stealth fighter are evidence of a similar breakthrough in the air, the Navy’s intelligence director told reporters Wednesday.

“Their anti-ship missile — we underestimated when they would be competent and capable in delivering a technological weapon of that type,” said Vice Adm. Jack Dorsett, the deputy chief of naval operations for information dominance and the service’s intelligence director.

Dorsett was referring to development and testing of the Dong Feng 21D, a land-based anti-ship ballistic missile that officials now say has reached its initial operating capability. Analysts said the missile leaves U.S. aircraft carriers vulnerable to attack, and Dorsett seemed to agree, although he did not discuss carriers specifically.

“The technology that the Chinese have developed and are employing in their DF 21D missile system has increased their probability of being able to employ a salvo of missiles to be able to hit a maneuvering target,” he said.

At the same time, Dorsett said it is unclear how proficient China would be at targeting ships with the missiles in an actual fight. “They’ve certainly test fired it over land” but “to our knowledge they have not test fired this over water against maneuvering targets,” he said.

Dorsett declined to discuss whether Aegis-guided rockets on destroyers and cruisers would be able to knock down the DF 21Ds, or whether U.S. carriers would have to be kept out of range of the missiles.

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AssassinsMace · Feb 5, 2012

Then the reply would be to shoot down or dazzle Chinese sea surveillance satellites thereby blinding the most important part of the DF-21D kill chain. Its called tit for tat

Without the ability to detect and track the CVN by Chinese sea surveillance satellites the DF-21D is useless

I thought you said there would be cloud cover protecting carriers. Now you say it's not just so you can say Chinese satellites will be shot down? Love your contradictions. Satellites for China are only a factor. China isn't as dependent on satellites as you are. Also you forget Chinese subs will get within torpedo range because that has happened before and not on paper. And also launch anti-ship missiles too. Remember like the obsolete Seersucker that hit Kuwait City without anyone ever detecting it in the middle of a war.

Lezt · Feb 6, 2012

NikeX said:
SM3 has been tested over and over again. And it has been tested for the world to see. DF-21D has been a subject of speculation as the world is not even sure it even can perform its stated mission

In other words lets see what this fantastic weapon can do and have it come out of the shadows.

An untested weapon system with as complex a mission as is claimed for DF-21D is just hype. Many people believe that the DF-21D cannot deliver.

The SM3 is tested against... targets which path and launch was known; so if you consider that "tested" then why not the Chinese tests on stationary targets for the DF21 as "Tested"?

If we use the same standard, the SM3 *Can* hit targets and depending on who you cite, the SM# have a sucess rate of 10%-84%

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NikeX said:
Let me respond to them now:

Reaction time of an ABM system is measured in minutes. Remember the Russians and Americans are old hands at developing ABM systems, while the Chinese have never developed a ASBM even in theory. This system here will provide even better warning time of a ASBM launch towards the carrier.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

'......Membrane Optic Imager Real-Time Exploitation (MOIRE) program under contract to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Ball Aerospace is incrementally demonstrating technologies needed to develop a large, lightweight geosynchronous space-based telescope using advanced diffractive optics membrane to provide persistent, real-time, tactical video to the war fighter'

That is real time as in watching ALL THE TIME for a launch signature

"...It would be able to image an area greater than 100 x 100 km with a video update rate of at least one frame a second, providing a 99% chance of detecting a Scud-class missile launch.

How will the DF-21D hide its launch signature towards the CVN?

Its another headache for the DF-21D

Which is fine, reaction in minutes, meaning if the CVN is within 1000 KM of China, the DF21 will arrive at the carrier within 4 minutes. lets hope the detection till interception is less than 4 minutes - or even less if it is to intercept the missile before it separates or have multiple warheads/ missile strikes. The common quoted reaction time online, is less than 5 minutes. the common quoted speed of a DF21 is mach 10-12, but it could also be as well as faster too.

NikeX said:
Sub munitions might inflict some damage on the carrier, if they manage to spread their payload pattern in a way that includes the carrier. But as accidents on the CVN have shown, several 500 and 1000 pound bombs can go off on the flight deck and the carrier can remain mission capable. It is unlikely that the sub munitions can deliver the explosive power of several 500 and 1000 pound bombs. They are just too small

Unless you have been missing the entire discussion on KE warheads, A 600 KG warhead at Mach 12 no matter KE or PE, will hit at the force equivilant of ~1000 tonnes of TNT by shear impact. Sub munitions at 2 KG each, traveling at that speed is estimated to be able to penetrate 1000 - 2000 mm of solid armor grade steel.

With that speed, you can basically shoot through the thickest part of USS Iowa and out the other side of the ship.

NikeX said:
Advances in damage control will make it more difficult for any munition to knock out the carrier. This includes advanced firefighting techniques on the flight deck and through out the ship

And with advanced warning the CVN can be prepared for any sub munition attack

Lets just say, if it hits, the CV is mission killed already; 1000 lb bomb going off on the armor deck is very different from it going off inside the ship. Many ships were sunk with less. Many ships were broken into 2 with a 600 kg warhead.

And if you read earlier, we calculated and tried 30 mm WHA balls, which can penetrate around 200 mm of armor ~2000 balls. If it hits, the crew will be shreaded

NikeX said:
Answer: With systems like these the carrier can use it aircraft to standoff and launch strikes. This is being launched from a F-35

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Which also means, that the traditional advantage a carrier held -> ability to deliver a shit load of munition is lost; hence DF21 would be successful already. IT means, that the CVN will have serious issues trying to protect landing ships, or other assets which may be trying to interfere with China's

NikeX said:
Note: the further away the carrier is from the DF-21D launchers the longer the flight time of the missile to the CVN and the more time the CVN has to react

The smart thing is too operate on the extreme edge of the DF-21D's range and dare them to launch at you.

Which is 3000 km from the Chinese launch site. meaning with the F35 with a combat radius of 1100 km.... will mean the carrier is combat ineffective -> mission killed.

NikeX said:
Answer: Sorry but the radar opaque smoke is no different that cloud cover as far as air operations on the CVN are concerned. The carrier would NOT deploy smoke that would blind itself.

So some how the smoke is tailored to Chinese frequencies and not american ones? Won't the Chinese radar just operate on American frequencies then to bypass the smoke? more fantasy than science; if you can see through the smoke, I bet someone else could too.

And flight ops on a carrier deck covered with smoke?

NikeX said:
Meanwhile the poor DF-21D with its limited onboard radar is confused trying to look through this radar hiding countermeasure as it tries to accomplish its mission screaming in at Mach 10

Also it should be pointed out that the DF-21D's warhead will be glowing whitehot as it re-enters the atmosphere and offers an inviting target to any IR sensor and IR guided weapon within range

Another headache.

Now do some math before concluding, when the DF21 is red hot, it will be what? 20 km up? 20 km is only 5 seconds of flight time. try to detect, locate, launch countermeasures and intercept at a safe distance in 5 seconds.

Behind the China Missile Hype

escobar

Brigadier

peterAustralia

New Member

delft

Brigadier

escobar

Brigadier

NikeX

Banned Idiot

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

NikeX

Banned Idiot

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Lezt

Junior Member