Behind the China Missile Hype
- Thread starter navyreco
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AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
They had to deal with guided missiles in 1917? Are you forgetting the ASBM will be coming from the top not from the side?
I mean, sure, let the SM3 or counter measures intercept my cheap scud, how many SM3 do a CVBG carry? 400? after 400 scuds, what are you using to intercept?
And so this is also where the merit of KE warheads come in, What use would it be to hit a 600 KG DU rod with some small kinetic kill vehicle? Its like a bug on a wind screen.
Whats the system response time for the BMDS? whats the optimal strike distance of carrier strike aircraft? A F/A 18 have a strike range of less than 1000 km, that means the carrier have to be within 1000 KM of the Chinese coast, for a... 2-4 minute flight time for the ballistic missile.
I have significant doubts that any anti ballistic missile system can react and intercept. A SM3 travels at more or less the same speed as the DF21, given it must be launched after the DF21 is launched, it would mean, that the DF21 had already reach past it's apex and is already gaining speed via gravity. It also means that the DF21 would have separated already - Which the SM3 have shown issues of successful intercept. //edit i mean intercept seperated targets, not the DF21//
Effectively, if this means that a CVBG needs to stay out of it's aircraft strike range of China and her Assets, to stay relatively safe, had the DF21 not achieved it's task if the CVBG cannot launch strikes against Chinese targets?
AKA, The USA losses the ability of sailing a CVBG in the Taiwan straits as in 1996; being less than 200 km from Chinese shores will mean a ASBM flight time of less than 30 secs. <- good luck intercepting them; by physical means.
Are you forgetting that the aircraft can fly OVER the CVN task force? You seem to be grabbing at straws.Try to think outside the box.
Now lets see this DF-21 fly before we proclaim this ASBM the answer to China's problem of dealing with aircraft carriers
Using obscurants to screen ships at sea is a proven tactic that has worked long before there was something called DF-21.
And China has no answer for this defensive tactic
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
So you think China just fires at any opportunity? Can your carrier keep up with mother nature to hide under her shield? Weather is a lot more of a problem for you.
I guess your curtain of smoke will obscure SM- 3s from working too.
And people have significant doubts that the DF-21D can deliver the performance the Chinese claim. So far all we are hearing is bluff. Fly one and show the world what it can do
---------- Post added at 11:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 PM ----------
How's that?
DF-21, if it even exists, is more limited by weather and cloud as it tries desperately to find the CVN. Meanwhile the CVN is a proven all weather weapon's system.
Is the DF-21D just hype?
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
So your going to have an aircraft with your magic smoke up in the air 24/7 waiting to drop the curtain of smoke. If it's on deck ready to take off then can you get the curtain up by the time the ASBM hits the carrier? Again do you control the weather so it doesn't blow your curtain away? You seem to can't decide if standing still or going at 35 knots is better. Either way you don't control the weather to have your smoke screen on top of the carrier.
Grabbing at straws? You have only one straw and that's just blowing "smoke."
What you can't seem to understand is the ASBM moves faster than weather but a carrier doesn't. Can a carrier find cloud cover in 15 minutes or less? What happens if the clouds are moving away? Can your 35 knots catch up? And you want us to think China's only oppotunity to fire is with cloud cover. I've got news for you the Pacific Ocean is not 100% covered in clouds 24/7. Plenty of windows that will be open.
When will China spot a carrier? When there's clear weather. If a satellite spots the carrier, it will because of clear weather. When will OTH radar spot a carrier? When it's clear weather because according to your own logic, radar can't see through cloud cover. So how will OTH radar spot a carrier? Because it's clear weather. How can any reasonable person cannot see that? But somehow bad luck will always be on China's side and clouds will obscure which means according to you China just fires blindy into the Western Pacific for no reason because why? Carriers will always have cloud cover to protect them and China likes to waste ASBMs and look like a fool firing blindly into the Western Pacific hoping they'll hit a carrier. Might as well say God is on your side and that's why China fires an ASBM always when there's only cloud cover at something they can't even see is there in the first place.
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True, a DF21 have not been battle tested as the SM3 was never battle tested.
So you are trying to argue that a SM3 is not hype that it can defeat a DF21, while a DF21 is a hype that cannot threaten a carrier?
I don't think anyone here claim that the DF21 makes the carrier obsolete, but does it seriously threaten a Carrier? absolutely. Heck, outdated coastal artillery sank the Blucher in 1940 - which theoretically cannot threaten her.
And you have not addressed most of the things I have brought up just because of the existence of the DF21D.
- Reaction time of a ballistic missile defense system
- KE and sub munition on a ballistic missile
- That the CVBG needs to be sailing within 1000 km for her strike aircraft to operate -> 2-4 minutes reaction time, if further, the carrier is already mission killed
- If smoke is deployed, it obstructs and prevents the operation of the carrier aircraft, therefore mission killing it.
Would an American admiral think more than twice to sail his CVBG up the Chinese coast just to see if his SM3s can intercept DF21s? If not, then the DF21 have achieved its purpose as a area deterrent weapon; even without being fired.
//edit// oh this is before other exotic detection methods like EM resonance, Quantum detection; they may or may not work, but lets just say, it is much harder to make something which exist physically disappear, then to see through disguises and distractions.
IronsightSniper
Junior Member
Well, anything to the US DoD threatens it, really 
How big of a threat is really the issue. Certainly however, the DF-21D, being the first AShBM, is going to pose a threat. But is the threat as damning as some would claim (to the extent that U.S. supremacy in the Pacific has ended)? Absolutely not. But can the DF-21D challenge the USN and any of it's CBG in the region? Absolutely.
Like plenty have iterated, the DF-21D is not the "wunderwaffe" of the PRC. It is simply another tool in it's arsenal, and though a large and powerful tool, it certainly doesn't end US dominance of the region.
How big of a threat is really the issue. Certainly however, the DF-21D, being the first AShBM, is going to pose a threat. But is the threat as damning as some would claim (to the extent that U.S. supremacy in the Pacific has ended)? Absolutely not. But can the DF-21D challenge the USN and any of it's CBG in the region? Absolutely.
Like plenty have iterated, the DF-21D is not the "wunderwaffe" of the PRC. It is simply another tool in it's arsenal, and though a large and powerful tool, it certainly doesn't end US dominance of the region.