AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region.

As for the Filipinos, ask them why they feel the way they do about the Chinese, geopolitics notwithstanding. The Chinese coming to the Phillipines behaving like they own the place have gone a long way in tarnishing their country’s image.

Add to that, that historicaly, Chinese were never that liked to begin with, as they held a grossly disproportionate amount of wealth in the South East Asian countries they lived in.
So?
 

FireyCross

New Member
Registered Member
This is a story of geopolitically driven military procurement gone mad.

Australia is an island nation whose very survival is dependent upon its ability to access strategic sea lines of communication (SLOCs) so that critical commerce links can operate on a sustained basis. In short, if any nation or group of nations were to cut off Australia’s sea links to the rest of the world, the country would eventually wither away and die.

Despite its impressive land mass, Australia is a relatively small nation, with a population of just under 26 million (making it 55th in world rankings) with a GDP of US$1.3 trillion (13th in the world.) The 2021 defense budget had Australia spending 2.1% of its GDP, or around AU$44.6 billion. Just under AU$16 billion of this was spent on the Australian Navy, which is comprised of nearly 50 commissioned vessels and over 16,000 personnel...


The beauty of the US-UK proposal is that there are no messy details attached – how much the program will cost, how Australia will operate advanced nuclear power systems when it has no indigenous nuclear power experience to draw upon, and, perhaps most importantly, how Australia plans on manning eight large submarines when it can barely field four crews for its existing Collins-class fleet?

Moreover, beyond the US-dictated operational premise of “challenging the Chinese,” the record is silent on how the acquisition of large nuclear-powered submarines will advance Australian national security. It is the silence and maneuverability which made the Collins-class submarine such a potentially lethal weapon. Any Australian fleet equipped with nuclear submarines will find it difficult to operate in the shallow waters that define the majority of the SLOCs they will be required to defend. Moreover, the noise and bulkier configuration of a nuclear-powered submarine will mean any future Australian force will be far less capable when it comes to killing a modern naval opponent, and far more likely to be detected and destroyed.

The reality is the US-UK offer to provide Australia with nuclear submarines is little more than domestic politics projected onto a theoretical geopolitical map of the US’ making. Australia was facing a fiscal crisis due to the exploding budget associated with the French-designed replacement for the Collins-class submarine, one that could threaten to bring down the government of Scott Morrison. Boris Johnston remains desperate for a platform from which he can project an image of UK geopolitical relevance. And Biden is in desperate need of being able to do the same for an American constituency reeling after the humiliation of losing a 20-year conflict in Afghanistan.

But the fact remains that the US has no meaningful military counter to China, the UK is not capable of sustaining any credible military presence in the Pacific, and Australia cannot afford to acquire and operate a force of eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The Australian nuclear submarine project is a dangerous joke that only further exacerbates the existing geopolitical crisis with China by injecting a military dimension which will never see the light of day.

Scott Ritter


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Yep. My thoughts exactly. Northern Australia and large, inflexible vessels like the Virginia class aren't a good mix. I wouldn't describe the Collins as quiet, but it sure as hell is nimble and agile. In the hands of a good crew, it's proven itself incredibly capable against far more advanced adversaries in exercises with the Americans by using that agility and small size to its advantage. All that experience and sound tactics would be lost... It's a shame, her sailors skill and know how with their vessels should be respected. They deserve better than being shouldered with the results of some BS American obsession over a new cold war.
 

FireyCross

New Member
Registered Member
The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region.

As for the Filipinos, ask them why they feel the way they do about the Chinese, geopolitics notwithstanding. The Chinese coming to the Phillipines behaving like they own the place have gone a long way in tarnishing their country’s image.

Add to that, that historicaly, Chinese were never that liked to begin with, as they held a grossly disproportionate amount of wealth in the South East Asian countries they lived in.

Thank god the Americans know better, and would never do such a thing....
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yep. My thoughts exactly. Northern Australia and large, inflexible vessels like the Virginia class aren't a good mix. I wouldn't describe the Collins as quiet, but it sure as hell is nimble and agile. In the hands of a good crew, it's proven itself incredibly capable against far more advanced adversaries in exercises with the Americans by using that agility and small size to its advantage. All that experience and sound tactics would be lost... It's a shame, her sailors skill and know how with their vessels should be respected. They deserve better than being shouldered with the results of some BS American obsession over a new cold war.
The AUKUS deal covers underwater drones, it is mentioned explicitly along with AI and Quantum technology sharing.
Northern Australia is ideal for drones of all sizes.
 

nlalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Add to that, that historicaly, Chinese were never that liked to begin with, as they held a grossly disproportionate amount of wealth in the South East Asian countries they lived in."

You make it seems like the Chinese ethnic groups in those ASEAN countries that found and made the success despite facing massive discrimination, often times hostile and fatal receptions from the indigenous population with tacit approval from their respective national government are still the Chinese fault for being successful despite their hurdles. Would you be saying that shit observation if the Chinese population are not in the billion but rather in the millions and say our tribe is from Israel a.k.a. Jews/Jewish people. How is the Filipino-Chinese acting or behaving like we owned the country, again what specific actions did the Chinese diaspora do or doing in the Philippines to warrant the charge that they are acting like they own the country. I mean, I have lived in the Philippines for a number of years, I know and learned how to speak 2 of their major languages (Tagalog, Bisaya/Cebuano the same language Duterte speaks) so I do have some ideas and first hand experience what the country is like.
I was speaking of the nouveau riche mainlanders who visit the Philippines and act like they own the place. Those are the people who give China a bad image.

As for the diaspora: it was not a shit observation nor a moral judgment. I was stating the facts and you and @ansy1968 corroborated them. Call it racism or envy or whatever, but the fact is the Chinese diaspora was historically not that much liked in the SEA countries.
"The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region."

What aggressive and selfish behavior actions specifically are you talking about that the PRC has taken in the SCS to support your allegation because last I checked China was late in the game amongst all the SCS claimants that includes Vietnam and the Philippines.
One example that came to my mind: they managed to antagonize Indonesia who is not even a claimant in the SCS dispute. The Chinese Coast Guard obstructed the Indonesians on several occasions from enforcing their EEZ rights.
 
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nlalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
A hurdle that the governments in these countries would have to overcome should they choose to align with the PRC. Unless the PRC is prepared to make concessions to their claims in the SCS, it might be a hard sell to the domestic audiences.
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
A hurdle that the governments in these countries would have to overcome should they choose to align with the PRC. Unless the PRC is prepared to make concessions to their claims in the SCS, it might be a hard sell to the domestic audiences.
I wonder if economic improvements via the Belt-and-Road Initiative will be enough to mollify the ASEAN population, with promises from China for more development if the SCS issues become resolved. Essentially, trading SCS claims (which, lets be honest, isn't really an economic engine for most of these countries) for Chinese investment on the homeland (which will directly create jobs, improve infrastructure, and lead to a better quality of life).
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thank god the Americans know better, and would never do such a thing....
That's not how it works. Americans abroad draw upon the power of their PR machinery which China doesn't have. Americans misbehaving abroad can be excused and get away with it as individual transgression but China can't.

China's opaque legal and political systems work against it as people outside of it have no idea how things work there.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
I was speaking of the nouveau riche mainlanders who visit the Philippines and act like they own the place. Those are the people who give China a bad image.

As for the diaspora: it was not a shit observation nor a moral judgment. I was stating the facts and you and @ansy1968 corroborated them. Call it racism or envy or whatever, but the fact is the Chinese diaspora was historically not that much liked in the SEA countries.



One example that came to my mind: they managed to antagonize Indonesia who is not even a claimant in the SCS dispute. The Chinese Coast Guard obstructed the Indonesians on several occasions from enforcing their EEZ rights.
If these tourists were such a problem as you say then they would have been banned. It’s a non issue. On wealth distribution, racism against Chinese can not be the foundation of any possible alliance for China, it’s a nonstarter.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
A hurdle that the governments in these countries would have to overcome should they choose to align with the PRC. Unless the PRC is prepared to make concessions to their claims in the SCS, it might be a hard sell to the domestic audiences.
Most of the 11 SEA countries don’t have territorial disputes with China. Those with less racist views of Chinese will be more easily align with China. As for the anti Chinese racists they should be kept out.
 
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