AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

4Tran said:

There seems to be one gigantic flaw with this position. I think it's fine and even responsible for powers to be concerned about what a growing superpower might do as it gains more ability to exert its strength. However, it's a terrible idea to navigate this superpower by provoking it. So far, Australia has been lucky that China is almost infinitely patient and hasn't gotten too upset so far, but what the hell would Australia do if China decided to bear a grudge?

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They provoke because in their hearts they are not yet ready to accept an inferior position. As long as the US stands and retains it's global standing, all Anglos believe that they share the same status by association. Thus, countries like Australia see themselves as at least China's equals, because the US currently is.
When the US loses it's position, there will be a short duration of teeth gnashing, before acceptance sets in. At that time, for Australia at least, there will be a reconciliation of all the lessons put upon them in the last 15 years, and they will face reality and admit "we were wrong".

tygyg1111 said:

They provoke because in their hearts they are not yet ready to accept an inferior position. As long as the US stands and retains it's global standing, all Anglos believe that they share the same status by association. Thus, countries like Australia see themselves as at least China's equals, because the US currently is.
When the US loses it's position, there will be a short duration of teeth gnashing, before acceptance sets in. At that time, for Australia at least, there will be a reconciliation of all the lessons put upon them in the last 15 years, and they will face reality and admit "we were wrong".

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The dumbest part about all of this is that China doesn't even want Australia to be in an inferior position to begin with. China is perfectly happy buying Australian goods and resources. So the whole "China is a threat" thing is made up by Australian politicians to score domestic points. And even with all this, China still doesn't care, and won't care as long as Australia is happy making money.

But that all changes if there's a conflict in the Western Pacific. What the Australians are unwilling to think about is that if they become belligerent, they lose regardless of the outcome of such a conflict. Obviously if they lose, then China is going to be able dictate terms. But even if they win, then their biggest customer has just suffered a big loss and will be unable to buy as much Australian goods!