Ask anything Thread

[AndrewS]

Another thing is that the US currently has an inventory of approximately 4000 Tomahawks and 3000 JASSMs

If war with the USA was seen as inevitable and China doubled of the defence budget, then I think China would build a stockpile of at least 10000 LACMs like the JASSM-ER (900km range) and JASSM-XR (1900km range). I expect the cost of the actual missiles would be about $15-20 Billion which would be very affordable.

That pretty much guarantees that the industrial, civilian and military infrastructure can be crippled in Korea, Japan and the Philippines - if they decide to go to join the US in a war against China.

 

[banjex]

Can we pump the brakes on this claim of 10 SSN per year?! Even if one has the capacity to build so many subs, the biggest bottle neck is crew training. It's wildly unlikely to be training 10 SSN crews per year. The Soviet Navy's main strength was SSNs, as we know, and they topped out at 3-4 subs per year. 10 a year and sustained for 10 years is pure fanboism.

 

[gelgoog]

I think the facilities were built for both attack and strategic submarine production.
But they are gargantuan, and we know they already use block modular production. So the production rate could be quite high.
If they had no intended design why build such huge facilities in the first place? Double the new production halls even.
China knows they have a nuclear submarine gap against the US and they are working on it full speed ahead.

 

[Overbom]

I think the facilities were built for both attack and strategic submarine production.
But they are gargantuan, and we know they already use block modular production. So the production rate could be quite high.
If they had no intended design why build such huge facilities in the first place? Double the new production halls even.
China knows they have a nuclear submarine gap against the US and they are working on it full speed ahead.

Are the facilities also able to accommodate production of unmanned submarines?

 

[gelgoog]

Are the facilities also able to accommodate production of unmanned submarines?

They are too large to be effective at that. If it were to happen it would probably be at different facilities.

 

[AndrewS]

Can we pump the brakes on this claim of 10 SSN per year?! Even if one has the capacity to build so many subs, the biggest bottle neck is crew training. It's wildly unlikely to be training 10 SSN crews per year. The Soviet Navy's main strength was SSNs, as we know, and they topped out at 3-4 subs per year. 10 a year and sustained for 10 years is pure fanboism.

The Russians actually topped out at 8 nuclear submarines per year, which included larger SSGNs and SSBNs
This happened on a number of years during the 1970s

That is the equivalent of more than 10 SSNs per year
If China did start building 10 SSNs per year, it would be indicative of a full-scale arms race on the part of China, as US-China relations had gotten really bad and China has doubled military spending to 3.4% of GDP, which almost matches the USA

Given the timescales for SSN construction (likely 4+ years), there is time to undertake a massive personnel training and expansion programme

There is already a core submarine force with:
12+ nuclear submarines
42+ conventional submarines

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And if you look at the pace of surface warship construction in the 2021-2025 plan, it looks like China is running at almost twice the US level, or soon will be.

Eg.
20 Frigates (2x the US construction rate)
28 Destroyers/Cruisers (2.8x the US construction rate)
1x Supercarrier (currently matching the US construction rate, but I reckon this will double in the next 2026-2030 plan)

It would be very strange if nuclear submarine construction wasn't targeting a similar construction rate
China matching the US would mean 3 SSNs per year, which is what I see as the bare minimum once they ramp up

But I wouldn't be surprised if they settled on double the US, like we see on the surface fleet. That would mean 6 SSNs per year
So a spurt to 10 SSNs per year is possible, if there is a Cold War Arms Race
The 2 new submarine assembly halls have more than enough capacity to accommodate this
Theoretically they've got space for 12+8 at the same time, and assembly time would be less than a year
So just one of assembly halls could assemble 10 SSNs per year, yet they've decided to build an additional assembly hall

And could they pay for this?

China's economy is currently about 25% larger than the USA
The Australian government white papers project China to have an economy twice the size in about 10 years time.
So in a hostile Cold War, you would expect the Chinese military to build twice as many submarines per year, which takes you to 6 SSNs per year

 

[banjex]

it was the peak rate. sustainable rate was 3.
tech, especially electronics, was cheaper and simpler back then.
again, crews.
pure fanboi BS.

 

[AndrewS]

it was the peak rate. sustainable rate was 3.
tech, especially electronics, was cheaper and simpler back then.
again, crews.
pure fanboi BS.

Nope

Look at Destroyer construction in past years

In the 5 year period from 2016-2020, we saw 24 destroyers launched. That's an average of 5 per year
In the 5 year period from 2021-2025, it looks like 28 destroyers are planned. That's almost 6 per year
In 2019, we saw a total of 10 destroyers launched in a single year

5 years ago, China sustaining 3 destroyers per year was viewed as unsustainable. Yet look at where we are now

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Given the economic projections AND if there is a worsening Cold War, my view is that 6 SSNs per year would be a sustainable figure.
With 10 as a potential surge figure, but of course, it would take a few years to ramp up

Remember we've already seen similar production increases in Destroyer construction

 

[5unrise]

Does anyone know what version of the Red Banner 9 missile is currently used on the Type 52D and Type 55 destroyers? Is it the HHQ-9A or the HQ-9B? (Basically, is the HQ-9B able to be used on naval ships?)

 

[szbd]

There is actually a limit to catapult length, because the airplane tires are only rated for certain speeds

For heavily laden fighter jets, airspeed over the wings is a big issue. An F/A-18E typically has a takeoff speed of 305km/h

But an E-2D (and presumably the KJ-600 / GJ-11) has lower takeoff and approach speeds, so theoretically they wouldn't need any deck wind?

What I said is, to reach the same speed, with deck wind you can have shorter catapult.