I don't know how much PLAN's budget accurately, maybe 80~100 bn USD or more every year.
In the 13th five year plan.
1 type-003 7.3 bn
8 type-055 7.3 bn
16 type-052d 8.6 bn
10 or more type-054A 2.1 bn
I think the total cost of ship building is no more than 10bn every year.
So the cost of ship building is not the major expenditure of military budget. So I think if the rate goes to 3.4%, at least the tonnage will be more than 4 times than today. We can see 4 carriers under constuction at the same time.
I've got 1.8 Billion RMB as the cost of a Type-054A
But I see you have 1.3-1.4 Billion RMB for them?
Also, where the did the Type-003 cost come from?
Also note there are more auxiliary and other ships being built
Plus remember that each Type-003 airwing (based on 60aircraft) is going to cost more that $5 billion
You've also got ongoing maintenance and operations costs which will start increasing rapidly with more ships and aircraft
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If both Dalian and Jiangnan were to dedicate one slot for carrier assembly, I think they could each produce a proven carrier design in 30 months. The John C Stennis carrier previously took 32months for the blocks to be assembled at Newport News. The first of the Roosevelt carriers took 36months.
But if you have 4 carriers simultaneously under assembly as suggested, you're looking at 4 carriers in 3 years
Then another 4 carriers in the following 2.5 years
That just seems too high to me, particularly since the KJ-600 AWACs and J-35 stealth fighters need at least 5 more years of development
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With a higher Chinese military budget, I reckon a vast expansion in nuclear submarine construction is the way to go
That is based on the 2 new assembly halls, plus the strategic benefits of a brand new SSN fleet for distant power projection and sea denial at maritime chokepoints
Given the Astute submarines cost $2 Billion, let's say Chinese SSNs cost $1.5 Billion each.
If China did end up doubling military spending because of deteriorating relations with the USA, then Chinese SSN production could be ramped up to 10 per year. But that still would only cost $15 Billion per year in construction costs
There would also be about $50M per year in operating costs per submarine, based on the Virginia SSN costings
So after 5 years, you'd be looking at 50 new Chinese SSNs. And after another 5 years, there could be 100 new SSNs in total. But I reckon construction would slow down to something more sustainable.
But anyway, the current situation looks like China will continue with a modest level of military spending at 1.7% of GDP
After all, there are still many priorities in terms of domestic economic development
