American Economics Thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Being able to do experimental design is indeed, very similar to a substantial amount of industry R&D with lower barriers to entry, particularly since industry capex projects are similarly years-long in duration.
Lower barriers to entry is the key term. The tech that dominates the world are very high barrier to entry and require immense knowledge, most of which you cannot figure out unless taught unless you waste your whole life learning something that they would have told you in a PhD level course. I know anybody can weld shit together in their garage and make it better throughout the years by trial and error. That's not the level of tech that determines global power, not in this modern day.
The US labor force is ~160M and even then, you can only focus on computing roles (themselves, a minority of STEM employment); while ignoring the S/E/M parts of it.
I focused on it? I didn't make the Slap-yourself chart you made with the categories you chose. I said STEM, then you made that chart to show American STEM dominated by temp visas and Asians, proving what you were arguing against.
1. The US STEM force is not "majority" Asian unless you use extremely narrow slices of the work force.
Yes, I use extremely narrow slices, the slices at the top that innovate. Your diggleberry-looking pizza-pie-dragged-down-a-mud-road definition putting all people who clean floors and stock shelves at STEM facilities as STEM personel is the exact type of data-cope that Americans use to hide their own incompetence and deficiencies.
2. No, it doesn't. The % Asian isn't negatively correlated whatsoever with the % foreign-born.
Yeah, it does. The US native force is what you're talking about and that is the population represented as the total when one says the US is 7% Asians. Temp visas are an extremely small sliver of the overall US population but a massive overrepresentation of the US STEM force. Therefore, the total Asian vs US native population has to be taken as the number of Asians vs the number of native US, non-temp VISA, NOT the total of the two.
USC/LPR Asians don't pursue PhDs because they simply don't need to.
Oh that shit again. Americans don't work hard at school because they don't need to. They can do drugs and wander the streets because they're confident the government/economy will take care of them LOL
They have abundant
Not that abundant. Looks like you ran out of excuses when writing, left it open to come back to, then drew a blank. Don't worry; that tends to happen a lot when people try to twist shit and end up debating me.
Yes, IRCA only makes it civilly illegal to directly hire (but not indirectly contract) undocumented labor. It is entirely legal for undocumented immigrants to own their own LLCs and file taxes with an ITIN (and they generally do so since filing an ITIN creates evidence of US residence for any potential future amnesty and because tax fraud is a deportable crime).
Oh my gosh this went past your head so hard, a jumping toad came closer to catching a plane (other than a Boeing) than you did of getting the point. Low class, often illegal immigrants refer to people who often get paid by cash per day. They're not worried about any tax issues cus their money goes into their hands and out of their hands; you'd have to be a tapeworm in their bellies to find the tax fraud. The IRS isn't even interested; they can't afford mssed tax paybacks anyway; they might even end up being owed money because of how poor they are. If they have own their own company and file taxes, that means that they were never that poor to begin with. Poor immigrant, dumbass. Not slick criminal ones. Comprende?
It doesn't matter. If Asians were all the STEM wunderkind's you claim, the graph should intercept at p70 since those are where intro engineering salaries land. That is...not the case
1. No, they're not all. There's people like Filipinos, etc... I mean mostly Chinese, Koreans, Indians, oddly enough, not as much Japanese.
2. What is this made-up theoretical p70 from a dude who can't calculate percentages? I told you, STEM does not mean the highest pay even though it is the most important. That matters no matter how many times you make up p70.
They weren't. This entire conversation is the belief that US STEM requires a selected cohort of 7000 people that are unreplaceable anywhere else in a birth cohort of 4 million.
Don't know where those numbers are from. Did you pull it out of the same hole you got p70 from?
Having foreign-born talent in the United States isn't bad (nor evidence of native-born deficits), particularly on these super small scales (given that graduate enrollments writ large are supermajority US born)
Except when they defect and cause information leaks and brain drain, which is much much more likely to happen in an immigrant than a "suburban white" boy. Quoting cus that's what you said represents America.
it's really just that US citizens do not need PhDs to stay in the United States and will not spend years of their lives on an NPV negative degree.
Oh yeah, this sour grapes shit again. That's why immigrants become engineers and Americans become drug addicts. Right, it's because immigrants need to have their shit together to stay in the US and Americans can roll around in the streets doing meth knowing ICE doesn't care.
Yes, the entire STEM workforce is dependent on 3,000 PhD earners per year (largely, whom aren't "students" as much as they are immigrants). If that's the position you want to take, that's fine.
I didn't say 3,000 but take out the number, and know that it's not total dependence but a heavy reliance. And you'd be there.
It's just plainly ridiculous.
You know what you should do to show that? Make the next chart in your Slap-Yourself Chart Series to further prove it again LOL
It's also facially contradictory to your point that US science is super Asian ("Chinese") when they are at best, a superminority.
Ah, yes, the importance of your last Slap-Yourself chart comes to light again. 20-25% Chinese in the total, then take away the 40-60% from the temp visa so we're at 20-25% out of the 40-60% left representing US citizens, which is basically half, maybe a sliver less. Superminority=/<49.9%, is an assumption that is par for a person who thinks that a 168% increase is less than doubling.
Even if you take the position that only PhDs matter for innovation, at best, it's a cohort that's at most 30% Chinese.
30% is a fuckton. 1.6% of the US population is of Chinese blood. That blew up to an imaginary 30% at the PhD STEM level, but that's mostly due to your miscalculation, missing the actual number which is closer to 45%.
1. If 30-45% of your speartip workers quit tomorrow, your business is screwed.
2. 1.6% of the general population that is Chinese blows up to 30-45% at PhD level STEM; that is a 20-30 fold increase in likelihood to STEM gravitation over the population average. This shows an extremely strong Chinese affinity to STEM over the general population.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The labor market outcomes of International Math Olympiad winners are either a large number of software developers at Google and quant firms (like D.E.Shaw or Citadel) or pursue academic careers but generally fairly standard academic careers (with <2 publications at their time of PhD graduation and average H factors of 0.4-0.6). Math olympiad winners thus have fairly similar labor market outcomes to well performing students anywhere in the United States, with nothing particularly notable or unique (joining the ranks of FANGMAN SWEs, professors, investment bankers, lawyers, management consultants, and research & development staff of the endless number of innovative US firms)

Scientometrics (2024), 129:3484-3486
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Don't you remember you tried this shit before? If you're gonna bring back old defeated crap over and over again, why didn't you just continue the last conversation instead of running away like you will again from this one? You're not smart enough to be doing this with me.

"We have found that the career paths of IMO medalists depend on their home country, despite their similar levels of mathematical talent."

When it comes to China, the article references the 2009 paper written by Zhou and Liu:
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This paper follows Chinese Olympiad Champions up to 1995, where most of them became professors, often at US or foreign universities. Actually, in their chart, only 1 was in Peking University; the vast majority were in American universities and a handful in Europe. That already shows that Chinese Champions are not your average winners, whom don't rise far beyond average (according to you; I don't even bother to check this because I don't care about non-Chinese). But the data terminates in 1995, at time when China had much much worse talent retention than today.

The paper itself has data up to 2005 and found similar results, although the number of Chinese winners who stay in foreign universities has dropped to 68%.

This data shows that firstly, Chinese olympiad champions are atypical of your common cohort but the vast majority make it to the peak of the academic world. Secondly, it shows that today, China's own universities and general environment are far stronger in STEM than 20-30 years ago and even those who go abroad for higher education are increasingly returning home. A separate paper in the recent few years actually showed that >80% of the general Chinese international student population end up returning home. That's not to mention all the older professors who actually might have been similar to the 1995 cohort who today, decide to go back.

Also, the value of saying that the Chinese dominate the math olympiads is not specifically in those few individuals who became champions. The true value is that they represent only the tip of the iceberg that is China's STEM talent. And there is no question that they have been more productive for China's technological rise in the recent years and any other group has been for their country.
US GDP revised upwards to 3.1% which highly suggests there are structural changes afoot in the US economy that have turbocharged productivity growth
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Pffffftt There you go again with your funny words for small numbers. 3.1% is turbocharged? What do you call 4%, hyperwarped? China's 5% God particle speed?
 
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KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
Yeah so turbocharged that they are dropping interest rates?
The math doesn't make sense, no matter how much some posters like to cope with mental masturbation.
Because keeping interest rates high serves no purpose when inflation is solved. It restrains the size of the economy for no good reason. Productivity shocks are deflationary
 

KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
Ah, yes, the importance of your last Slap-Yourself chart comes to light again. 20-25% Chinese in the total, then take away the 40-60% from the temp visa so we're at 20-25% out of the 40-60% left representing US citizens, which is basically half, maybe a sliver less. Superminority=/<49.9%, is an assumption that is par for a person who thinks that a 168% increase is less than doubling.
No, it's "Asian" so the Chinese proportion is even smaller. Chinese are ~25% of US Asians so split the US Asian number as well.
30% is a fuckton. 1.6% of the US population is of Chinese blood. That blew up to an imaginary 30% at the PhD STEM level, but that's mostly due to your miscalculation, missing the actual number which is closer to 45%.
1. If 30-45% of your speartip workers quit tomorrow, your business is screwed.
2. 1.6% of the general population that is Chinese blows up to 30-45% at PhD level STEM; that is a 20-30 fold increase in likelihood to STEM gravitation over the population average. This shows an extremely strong Chinese affinity to STEM over the general population.
Eh. It really is not. They are nothing more than immigration decisions of an extremely small cohort of less than a few thousand graduates a year (doctorates lead to EB-1 and EB-2 NIW green cards). You can read into it more than is actually there. It doesn't show affinity for STEM, it just shows that Asians are poor and like to immigrate to the US but that immigration channels are narrow and shows an affinity for migration. You seem to be soothing your racially resentful ego after some white kids at Lowell did some racial taunts with the fact that you have a PhD. That all it seems to be lol.
 
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KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
Don't you remember you tried this shit before? If you're gonna bring back old defeated crap over and over again, why didn't you just continue the last conversation instead of running away like you will again from this one? You're not smart enough to be doing this with me.

"We have found that the career paths of IMO medalists depend on their home country, despite their similar levels of mathematical talent."

When it comes to China, the article references the 2009 paper written by Zhou and Liu:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This paper follows Chinese Olympiad Champions up to 1995, where most of them became professors, often at US or foreign universities. Actually, in their chart, only 1 was in Peking University; the vast majority were in American universities and a handful in Europe. That already shows that Chinese Champions are not your average winners, whom don't rise far beyond average (according to you; I don't even bother to check this because I don't care about non-Chinese). But the data terminates in 1995, at time when China had much much worse talent retention than today.

The paper itself has data up to 2005 and found similar results, although the number of Chinese winners who stay in foreign universities has dropped to 68%.

This data shows that firstly, Chinese olympiad champions are atypical of your common cohort but the vast majority make it to the peak of the academic world. Secondly, it shows that today, China's own universities and general environment are far stronger in STEM than 20-30 years ago and even those who go abroad for higher education are increasingly returning home. A separate paper in the recent few years actually showed that >80% of the general Chinese international student population end up returning home. That's not to mention all the older professors who actually might have been similar to the 1995 cohort who today, decide to go back.

Also, the value of saying that the Chinese dominate the math olympiads is not specifically in those few individuals who became champions. The true value is that they represent only the tip of the iceberg that is China's STEM talent. And there is no question that they have been more productive for China's technological rise in the recent years and any other group has been for their country.
If IMO talent was truly uniquely talented, they would have better publication records than they do, they wouldn't even be a minority among Fields medal winners, among others. Top of the class landing as being professors is nothing unusual or unique (even ignoring the large proportion of IMO winners that don't go anywhere but to the absolute normieworld of FANGMAN SWE). IMO medalists being used as a proxy for anything other than their own cohort (particularly in the United States).
China's 5% God particle speed?
China's 5% is just quite slow catch-up growth from capital deepening gains.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No, it's "Asian" so the Chinese proportion is even smaller. Chinese are ~25% of US Asians so split the US Asian number as well.
Yeah, you just did that calculation in the second Slap-Yourself you posted. And last time, you used 30% so I can assume you're just making shit up as you go.
Eh. It really is not.
An answer to which point?
They are nothing more than immigration decisions of an extremely small cohort of less than a few thousand graduates a year (doctorates lead to EB-1 and EB-2 NIW green cards). You can read into it more than is actually there. It doesn't show affinity for STEM, it just shows that Asians are poor and like to immigrate to the US but that immigration channels are narrow and shows an affinity for migration.
No actually, you read into it more than is actually there. Asians got STEM PhDs because we're good at STEM, and have a culture of excellence. And you imagined that that we did that for US immigration because Americans like to imagine that the world revolves around them. The enormous number of Chinese STEM degrees that have never applied to go to the US and the supermajority of which whom return to China after foreign studies prove you wrong, although your theory was so unreasonably American-centric that it was the one that needed proving in the first place, not the counter-argument.
You seem to be soothing your racially resentful ego after some white kids at Lowell did some racial taunts
You're the one who brought up "suburban white children" as the representative of the US. Before that, I just said "American." Lowell? The hardware store?? I don't even know where you got that from.

Actually, the higher you go, the less personal racism you experience and that can lull someone into complacency. The last time I heard a racial taunt, I was in elementary school, one of the worst in NYC because I barely spoke English. I heard them no more because I tested into top-placing middle school and since I went to a specialized science high school, taunting Asians would be funny since Asian was the largest racial group at the school. And obviously, at a private univeristy at the PhD level, using a racial slur is basically the same as a resignation letter so you couldn't get those thrown at you even if you tried. But this is far beyond personal; this is about the status of my country, my children and thier children in the world.
with the fact that you have a PhD. That all it seems to be lol.
That seems to be all there is in your head. You guessed wrong why I got a PhD just like you guessed wrong why the other Chinese/Asian PhDs have them. I got one because both my parents had one and I was good at my field. I don't need one to stay in the US nor do I plan to stay in the US. It is my family tradition to have STEM PhDs because my father always valued knowledge above all. He told me when I was a child he'd be proud of me if I was a PhD labrat who made $40K a year for the rest of my life but ashamed of me if I became even a millionaire Michelin chef because to him, no cook could ever trump a scientist. But you don't get that. You think I did a PhD cus I'm angry at white people or because America would throw me out of I didn't have one? LOLOL

And one more time, I'm not racist against white people. I love Russians; they're whiter than Americans. You'd need to be albino to be whiter than a Russian.
If IMO talent was truly uniquely talented,
LMFAO what?
they would have better publication records than they do, they wouldn't even be a minority among Fields medal winners, among others.
How much better? Everything can be better. Why would such a small group not be a minority?
Top of the class landing as being professors is nothing unusual or unique
For Chinese winners. Apparently unique compared with your other countries according to you.
(even ignoring the large proportion of IMO winners that don't go anywhere but to the absolute normieworld of FANGMAN SWE).
That's other countries, not China. Did you catch that from the data you tried to use?
IMO medalists being used as a proxy for anything other than their own cohort (particularly in the United States).
That's not even a sentence. What did you want it mean?
China's 5% is just quite slow catch-up growth from capital deepening gains.
Oh, this is some 5%<3% American mathematical illiteracy magic here? LOL
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
If IMO talent was truly uniquely talented, they would have better publication records than they do, they wouldn't even be a minority among Fields medal winners, among others. Top of the class landing as being professors is nothing unusual or unique (even ignoring the large proportion of IMO winners that don't go anywhere but to the absolute normieworld of FANGMAN SWE). IMO medalists being used as a proxy for anything other than their own cohort (particularly in the United States).

China's 5% is just quite slow catch-up growth from capital deepening gains.
Even if you assume all US' 3% growth is healthy and not simply inflation stacking, it's still a mathematical impossibility to catch up with China, which is accelerating away at 5%+.

Only hope US has at this point of catching up with China is the ww2 German strategy I.e. annexing lands into itself lol

Trump actually has that idea with Canada :D but Canada alone still does not make up for the GDP gap between the 2 global major powers. Maybe try all of the EU...
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Even if you assume all US' 3% growth is healthy and not simply inflation stacking, it's still a mathematical impossibility to catch up with China, which is accelerating away at 5%+.

Only hope US has at this point of catching up with China is the ww2 German strategy I.e. annexing lands into itself lol

Trump actually has that idea with Canada :D but Canada alone still does not make up for the GDP gap between the 2 global major powers. Maybe try all of the EU...
Democratic 3% is greater than authoritarian 5%
 
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