American Economics Thread

Overbom

Brigadier
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All going well in America land
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US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010​

Consumers are ‘tapped out’ after years of high inflation and as pandemic-era savings have evaporated
Defaults on US credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, in a sign that lower-income consumers’ financial health is waning after years of high inflation.
Credit card lenders wrote-off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50 per cent from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData. Write-offs, which occur when lenders decide it is unlikely a borrower will make good on their debts, are a closely watched measure of significant loan distress. “High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out,” said Mark Zandi, the head of Moody’s Analytics. “Their savings rate right now is zero.”
 

KingBroward

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LOL yes, I think that. Because industry experience in the lab at an assistant level is repeating that 1 procedure you do over and over again and turn in the results to your superiors for analysis while a PhD requires you research and design all your own experiments to answer a large question. You didn't know that?
Being able to do experimental design is indeed, very similar to a substantial amount of industry R&D with lower barriers to entry, particularly since industry capex projects are similarly years-long in duration.
<100K is a thin slice? LOL The real people who matter to a country's national STEM power are probably in the hundreds at most; the rest do coding for these people.
The US labor force is ~160M and even then, you can only focus on computing roles (themselves, a minority of STEM employment); while ignoring the S/E/M parts of it.
1. We are in agreement now that the US STEM force is substantially, and in some cases, in majority Asian. You've lost that point already which you previously claimed as not true.
2. The percentage of USC/LPR Asian was taken as a percentage of the total, which is heavily immigrant Asian. If you were to compare that with the Asian population of the US (7%), that number would somtimes double or triple because they would need to be compared to a total that does not include the temp visa population.
3. It also shows that American culture dumbs down. This can be corroborated with the data that America produces far less STEM students per capita compared to China.
1. The US STEM force is not "majority" Asian unless you use extremely narrow slices of the work force.
2. No, it doesn't. The % Asian isn't negatively correlated whatsoever with the % foreign-born. USC/LPR Asians don't pursue PhDs because they simply don't need to. They have abundant
Undocumented immigrants file their illegal earnings? What?
Yes, IRCA only makes it civilly illegal to directly hire (but not indirectly contract) undocumented labor. It is entirely legal for undocumented immigrants to own their own LLCs and file taxes with an ITIN (and they generally do so since filing an ITIN creates evidence of US residence for any potential future amnesty and because tax fraud is a deportable crime).
That group is what shows the highest mobility. The others groups have already moved about as high as they can go based only on STEM without supporting politics.

OK, I said it before and it's come true. Third time: STEM and management aren't the same even if they have similar mobility by pay.
It doesn't matter. If Asians were all the STEM wunderkind's you claim, the graph should intercept at p70 since those are where intro engineering salaries land. That is...not the case
Oh you had to edit the last table cus you realized that was ugly? LOL So now we have:
They weren't. This entire conversation is the belief that US STEM requires a selected cohort of 7000 people that are unreplaceable anywhere else in a birth cohort of 4 million. Having foreign-born talent in the United States isn't bad (nor evidence of native-born deficits), particularly on these super small scales (given that graduate enrollments writ large are supermajority US born), it's really just that US citizens do not need PhDs to stay in the United States and will not spend years of their lives on an NPV negative degree.
1. American STEM is heavily dependent, oftentimes over 50% on temp visa and Asians.
2. Asians are heavily overrepresented in STEM doctorates compared to their general population, which supports natural affinity to STEM.
3. Chinese people represent a fourth to a fifth of the STEM doctorate force in the US, and that's including immigrants. Compared to non-immigrants, that's gonna be about 50%.

Yo, make another chart to slap yourself again. Come on!
Yes, the entire STEM workforce is dependent on 3,000 PhD earners per year (largely, whom aren't "students" as much as they are immigrants). If that's the position you want to take, that's fine. It's just plainly ridiculous. It's also facially contradictory to your point that US science is super Asian ("Chinese") when they are at best, a superminority. Even if you take the position that only PhDs matter for innovation, at best, it's a cohort that's at most 30% Chinese.
 

KingBroward

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This is the real reason for the H1B debate.
When times are good they are tolerated, but during lean times they become outlet for working class American rage, and the ruling class like it that way.
Nah. It's not. The immigration debate has weak correlation with economic conditions (the economy was not particularly bad in 1924 when the Asian Exclusion Act passed, the economy was not particularly good in 1952 or 1965 when the Immigration and Nationality Acts passed, the economy was not particularly bad in 1987 when the Immigration Reform and Control Act passed, and most notably, the economy was doing very well in 1997 when the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act passed.

In fact - immigration attitudes are quite stable across time and macroeconomic conditions -
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,
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The H1-B debate as has all immigration debate since 1924, has really only ever been about race and how white to keep the United States, the 1924 Immigration Act was of course passed to maintain a white country into perpetuity by blocking the entry of Asians and Latins (
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), the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act (the main law governing immigration today was passed for a mix of racial liberalism in the era of the Voting Rights Act coupled with geopolitical motivations by the Cold War (see
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)) and Trump's twin victories largely come from racially resentful whites that dislike immigration (see
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))
 

KingBroward

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The labor market outcomes of International Math Olympiad winners are either a large number of software developers at Google and quant firms (like D.E.Shaw or Citadel) or pursue academic careers but generally fairly standard academic careers (with <2 publications at their time of PhD graduation and average H factors of 0.4-0.6). Math olympiad winners thus have fairly similar labor market outcomes to well performing students anywhere in the United States, with nothing particularly notable or unique (joining the ranks of FANGMAN SWEs, professors, investment bankers, lawyers, management consultants, and research & development staff of the endless number of innovative US firms)


Scientometrics (2024), 129:3484-3486
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MortyandRick

Senior Member
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US GDP revised upwards to 3.1% which highly suggests there are structural changes afoot in the US economy that have turbocharged productivity growth
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It's caused by credit card debt lol, debt fueled economic growth is nothing to flex about
Yeah so turbocharged that they are dropping interest rates?
The math doesn't make sense, no matter how much some posters like to cope with mental masturbation.
 

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am not going to lie, I love that Musk and Ramasawamy triggered MAGA with the H-1B comments. Ramasawamy basically said Asian people raise their children better and Musk told them in a meritocracy they would loose out to more skilled foreigners. They were absolutely livid with those comments. On top of that, Trump basically went radio silent while this was going on.
 
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