American Economics Thread

KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
Where are the working links? I scrutinize both data and collection.
It's the 2nd and the 3rd links.
Only PhDs matter in a STEM setting
No, lol. This only is logical (even on the R&D side of things) if you think that the thesis part of the PhD is so uniquely transformative that it can't be replicated through industry experience (even though they are broadly the same thing).
So... 6/8 did, right? LOL Sounds like they know it's important. The whole family can't be smart.
Even in an extremely positively selected cohort, you had 1/4th of the cohort have non-doctorates, which goes to show that the "only PhDs matter" position doesn't hold water
Founders rely on a functioning society to protect them. Functioning society relies on science. Science is made by PhDs. If you have the a team of founders and politicians and I have a team of PhD's, my society will run yours over.
If people have uniquely high levels of STEM talent that aren't being recognized by their employer, being a founder would indeed be a way to make substantially more money. It's not happening so the current market is equilibrating quite well.
Yeah, we did this before. It's all the janitors and bullshit. Up at the PhD level, it's 50/50... in a population where Asians are like 3%. You can slice that all you want, but you can't figure out fractions of the pie without Asians calculating it for you.
Up to the PhD level in computing. You needed to find extremely thin slices of the workforce that are <100K in size to prove your point.
#7848 basically concludes exactly what I said about America's STEM composition. Why did you post evidence against yourself? Because you're mathematically illiterate?
It doesn't. What it shows (particularly if you assume that US Asians are extremely deep with human capital and thus more likely to be PhD seeking in the first place) is that PhD degree seeking is not a test of innate human capital (since they are represented per their cohort size in the US), it's primarily an immigration decision by foreigners seeking entry into the US; a decision that is irrelevant to US citizens (who could be earning immediately money out of undergrad). It's an extremely small cohort of 7K people and to assume its unreplicable by US born people would require enormous leaps of assumption that stretch all credulity.
 

KingBroward

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They compete against each other domestically to determine the team, stupid. You don't just volunteer and go.
US high schools and school districts that have never had a program aren't going to have students participate will shockingly, not be represented. The only school districts/schools that have them are heavily Asian to begin with since the various academic olympiads are a Tiger Mom insecurity fest.
So basically, it used data that excluded the most drastic group (first gen low tier, often illegal immigrants) and you have no answer for that other than this meaningless crap.
It broadly doesn't. Undocumented immigrants generally file with ITINs which were also analyzed and excluding them doesn't really change the study findings since undocumented Asians are a small cohort (~17%) of foreign born asians (
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) and for US-born Asians (who by definition are legal), they have the same generational mobility as whites. If Asians had uniquely high levels of STEM talent, they would have higher levels of generational mobility than what is observed since generic engineering positions are still in the 70th percentile of income earners.
Well, it flew in their faces. You showed that data last time too and I showed that you cherry-picked the increases while running around the many many decreases. Then you ran away.
Total STEM earning is going up, regardless of whether you use the % of the birth cohort or aggregate counts; the idea that there's no innate human capital level in the United States flies in the face of every time series.
 

KingBroward

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If you add a quick adjustment (~30% of international graduate students are from China, Table S2-14) to the international student shares, you quickly get super minority status for applicants from China + USC/LPR Asians. The idea that US technological development is totally dependent on international students is just wholly unsupported.

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2017 total doctoratesInternationalUS citizen/LPR Asian% temp visa30% of temp visa% Asiantotal (30% temp visas, + % Asian)
Aerospace Eng.
342​
128​
26​
37%​
11%​
8%​
19%​
Chemical Eng.
1169​
606​
86​
52%​
16%​
7%​
23%​
Civil Eng.
1246​
776​
51​
62%​
19%​
4%​
23%​
Electrical Eng.
2669​
1923​
163​
72%​
22%​
6%​
28%​
Industrial Eng.
380​
238​
21​
63%​
19%​
6%​
24%​
Materials Eng.
877​
440​
57​
50%​
15%​
6%​
22%​
Mechanical Eng.
1498​
844​
78​
56%​
17%​
5%​
22%​
Computer Sciences
1934​
1089​
100​
56%​
17%​
5%​
22%​
Mathematics
1925​
943​
127​
49%​
15%​
7%​
21%​
12040​
6987​
709​
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It's the 2nd and the 3rd links.
They all don't work just like your logic. But we don't need these anymore. You screwed yourself with your 2 homemade tables. We'll go on those.
No, lol. This only is logical (even on the R&D side of things) if you think that the thesis part of the PhD is so uniquely transformative that it can't be replicated through industry experience (even though they are broadly the same thing).
LOL yes, I think that. Because industry experience in the lab at an assistant level is repeating that 1 procedure you do over and over again and turn in the results to your superiors for analysis while a PhD requires you research and design all your own experiments to answer a large question. You didn't know that?
Even in an extremely positively selected cohort, you had 1/4th of the cohort have non-doctorates, which goes to show that the "only PhDs matter" position doesn't hold water
What cohort? Just being there doesn't mean they matter. There's always more work grunts than brains.
If people have uniquely high levels of STEM talent that aren't being recognized by their employer, being a founder would indeed be a way to make substantially more money.
Reread sentence. Part A and B are not logically connected.
It's not happening so the current market is equilibrating quite well.
So obviously C, the conclusion, is meaningless.
Up to the PhD level in computing. You needed to find extremely thin slices of the workforce that are <100K in size to prove your point.
<100K is a thin slice? LOL The real people who matter to a country's national STEM power are probably in the hundreds at most; the rest do coding for these people.
It doesn't. What it shows (particularly if you assume that US Asians are extremely deep with human capital and thus more likely to be PhD seeking in the first place) is that PhD degree seeking is not a test of innate human capital (since they are represented per their cohort size in the US), it's primarily an immigration decision by foreigners seeking entry into the US; a decision that is irrelevant to US citizens (who could be earning immediately money out of undergrad)
1. We are in agreement now that the US STEM force is substantially, and in some cases, in majority Asian. You've lost that point already which you previously claimed as not true.
2. The percentage of USC/LPR Asian was taken as a percentage of the total, which is heavily immigrant Asian. If you were to compare that with the Asian population of the US (7%), that number would somtimes double or triple because they would need to be compared to a total that does not include the temp visa population.
3. It also shows that American culture dumbs down. This can be corroborated with the data that America produces far less STEM students per capita compared to China.
US high schools and school districts that have never had a program aren't going to have students participate will shockingly, not be represented. The only school districts/schools that have them are heavily Asian to begin with since the various academic olympiads are a Tiger Mom insecurity fest.
They don't have these programs because they're too stupid to have them. It's a loop.
It broadly doesn't. Undocumented immigrants generally file with ITINs
Undocumented immigrants file their illegal earnings? What?
which were also analyzed and excluding them doesn't really change the study findings since undocumented Asians are a small cohort (~17%) of foreign born asians (
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)
That group is what shows the highest mobility. The others groups have already moved about as high as they can go based only on STEM without supporting politics.
and for US-born Asians (who by definition are legal), they have the same generational mobility as whites.
OK, I said it before and it's come true. Third time: STEM and management aren't the same even if they have similar mobility by pay.
If Asians had uniquely high levels of STEM talent, they would have higher levels of generational mobility than what is observed since generic engineering positions are still in the 70th percentile of income earners.
Total STEM earning is going up, regardless of whether you use the % of the birth cohort or aggregate counts; the idea that there's no innate human capital level in the United States flies in the face of every time series.
70% is not that high; it's reached by Asians in most cases. But law, investment, sales, etc... can skew the number much higher than any STEM career.
If you add a quick adjustment (~30% of international graduate students are from China, Table S2-14) to the international student shares, you quickly get super minority status for applicants from China + USC/LPR Asians. The idea that US technological development is totally dependent on international students is just wholly unsupported.

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2017 total doctoratesInternationalUS citizen/LPR Asian% temp visa30% of temp visa% Asiantotal (30% temp visas, + % Asian)
Aerospace Eng.
342​
128​
26​
37%​
11%​
8%​
19%​
Chemical Eng.
1169​
606​
86​
52%​
16%​
7%​
23%​
Civil Eng.
1246​
776​
51​
62%​
19%​
4%​
23%​
Electrical Eng.
2669​
1923​
163​
72%​
22%​
6%​
28%​
Industrial Eng.
380​
238​
21​
63%​
19%​
6%​
24%​
Materials Eng.
877​
440​
57​
50%​
15%​
6%​
22%​
Mechanical Eng.
1498​
844​
78​
56%​
17%​
5%​
22%​
Computer Sciences
1934​
1089​
100​
56%​
17%​
5%​
22%​
Mathematics
1925​
943​
127​
49%​
15%​
7%​
21%​
12040​
6987​
709​
Oh you had to edit the last table cus you realized that was ugly? LOL So now we have:

1. American STEM is heavily dependent, oftentimes over 50% on temp visa and Asians.
2. Asians are heavily overrepresented in STEM doctorates compared to their general population, which supports natural affinity to STEM.
3. Chinese people represent a fourth to a fifth of the STEM doctorate force in the US, and that's including immigrants. Compared to non-immigrants, that's gonna be about 50%.

Yo, make another chart to slap yourself again. Come on!
 
Last edited:

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
De-dollarization is going to happen any day now, just you wait
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Funnily enough, the chart is a rorschach test to weed out agenda pushers.
When 'credible' people start posting this, it just reveals they're just 'smart' and 'confident', but not actually having any domain knowledge of what they post. Nor are they curious enough to understand what the chart is about!

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The boring explanation is that the data series has changed because the ECB updated the message type on SWIFT for an existing type of account transfer. So nothing has changed in reality.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 18:
For many living in the United States, economic conditions are already so bad that it feels like a recession has already begun:
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In August, roughly 60% of Americans said they believed the U.S. was in a recession, according to
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. Further, in October, more than half of Americans said they were worse off than they were four years ago, according to
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.
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The Biden administration keeps saying inflation is under control, but the truth is that core consumer prices have risen for 53 consecutive months:
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The inflation story is far from over… no matter what The Fed or The White House claims…

For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%…
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Bank of America is saying that the share of the US population living paycheck to paycheck increased by 12% from the beginning of 2022 through the second half of 2024:
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However you define “paycheck to paycheck,” more of us seem to be living that way.

In the Bank of America surveys, the share of consumers who said they lived from paycheck to paycheck has gradually risen, from about 35% in early 2022 to 47% in the third quarter of 2024.
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At this point, more than 20 percent of all U.S. renters already have to use “all of their regular income” just to pay rent:
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Just over one in five (22%) U.S. renters say all of their regular income goes directly to paying their rent, according to a recent Redfin-commissioned survey.

Working a second job is also a fairly common way for renters to pay housing costs, with 20% of renters citing that method. Nearly the same share (19%) say they have worked a job they hated to afford rent.
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In a desperate attempt to stay afloat, many Americans are accumulating staggering amounts of debt. According to the New York Federal Reserve, total credit card debt in the U.S. has just hit another all-time high:
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Americans’ credit card debt continues to climb, hitting a fresh record at the end of September, according to a new report from the New York Federal Reserve.

Total credit card debt rose to $1.17 trillion during the third quarter, an increase of $24 billion from the previous quarter, according to the report. It marks the highest level on record in Fed data dating back to 2003.
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One of the largest private employers in the entire US has decided to lay off thousands of workers:
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Sticking with the job market, approximately 8,000 pink slips are about to go out at Cargill. The privately-held company said it is laying off 5 percent of its global workforce. The job cuts are coming as one of America’s largest private companies is grappling with falling food prices.
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Most Americans are being forced to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of rapidly aging vehicles. As a result, the average age of passenger vehicles on U.S. roads has reached an all-time high:
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This should be the best of times for the people who help keep America’s cars running.

There have never been as many on the road—around 290 million light vehicles—and they have never been so old. One reason for that is good news: They are better made. Getting the odometer past 100,000 miles has gone from being noteworthy to normal. Thirty years ago the average passenger car was about 8.4 years old and today that is 13.6 years.
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A USA Today article that discussed the fact that the average family in Miami spends $327 at the grocery store per trip:
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Many longtime Miamians say they’ve felt this way since the pandemic transformed much of their city. As New Yorkers and Californians faced lockdown orders and restrictions, many flocked to Florida, with the largest increase of New Yorkers moving to Miami where they could benefit from tax and mandate breaks while working remotely. But along with having the largest net population gain of any state in the country came exploding living and housing costs. Housing prices have risen almost 50%, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index released last month.

Grocery prices shot up. (An average household spent about $327 per trip). So did electric bills. A carton of eggs last year cost $5.
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A collapse in job vacancies that is absolutely unprecedented...
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The U.S. lost a total of 78,000 manufacturing jobs during a recent three-month period:
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The manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs in October, bringing its tally of job losses to 78,000 over the past three months.

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday released its jobs report for October, which found that the manufacturing sector lost 46,000 jobs last month, according to the agency’s preliminary analysis.

That followed a loss of 6,000 jobs in September, which is also a preliminary figure, as well as a decline of 26,000 jobs in August.
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The number of people filing initial unemployment claims has increased much more than experts projected:
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The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped significantly last week (from 225k to 242k – well above expectations of 220k) – the highest since the first week of October.

On an un-adjusted basis, claims exploded higher (highest since January)…
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Inflation is starting to rise again, and a recent survey found that about a third of all U.S. households have been forced to cut spending just to keep the lights on:
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With the cost of things like food and housing still straining people’s budgets, many U.S. households over the past year have found themselves having to pare their spending on basic necessities just to keep the lights on at home.

That’s according to a recent Lending Tree study which analyzed U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data from Aug. 20, 2024 to Sep. 16, 2024 to find the percentage of Americans 18 and older that had cut back on necessary expenses to pay their energy bill, kept their home at an unsafe or unhealthy temperature, or was unable to pay the full amount on an energy bill at least once over the preceding 12 months.

The study found that more than 34% of respondents said they have had to cut back or skip spending on certain necessary expenses at least once over the past year in order to pay their energy bill.
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According to CNN, the US is seeing the biggest monthly increase in food prices in nearly two years:
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In November, egg prices shot up by 8.2% nationwide, logging one of the highest monthly spikes in the past two decades, according to Consumer Price Index data released last week. And it’s not just eggs — shoppers have seen jumps in beef, coffee and non-alcoholic beverages, driving up overall grocery prices to their largest monthly gain since January 2023.

And more increases appear to be coming down the pike for the pulped-paper-packed protein: Wholesale prices for chicken eggs soared by nearly 55% last month, and wholesale food prices rose by 3.1% (their highest monthly increase in two years).
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The US Census Bureau is telling us that 37% of Americans are struggling to pay even their most basic bills:
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The Census Bureau reports that 37% of Americans are struggling to pay routine bills. Add in the cost of Christmas gifts and other holiday expenses and it can feel overwhelming to keep up with the Clauses.

The National Retail Federation predicts an increase in holiday spending this year, but the rise is more indicative of the higher cost of goods than anything else. We aren’t buying more; it’s just what we are buying costs more than before.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 19:
When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases every year. In 2024, just 16% of Americans say they will spend more than last year, and 35% of Americans say they will spend less:
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Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what’s shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they’ll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they’ll spend less, down two points as well.
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The number of job openings in the US is now the lowest it has been since January 2020, but unlike January 2021, there is no pandemic to blame for the underperformance:
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US job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August.

Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.
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Manufacturing numbers are extremely grim. For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp real decline:
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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a critical gauge of the general business conditions in Philadelphia, has reported a significant drop. The actual figure stands at -16.4, a sharp decline that suggests worsening conditions for manufacturers in the region.

This figure starkly contrasts with the forecasted number of 2.9, highlighting a more severe downturn than initially predicted. Analysts had anticipated a positive shift, indicating improving conditions, but the actual data presents a different, more concerning situation.

Moreover, when compared to the previous index value of -5.5, the current reading of -16.4 further emphasizes the severity of the decline. This continuous drop indicates a concerning trend for manufacturers within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
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Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks:
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Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.
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The cost of living crisis is officially out of control. According to Bank of America, nearly a third of all households “spend more than 95 percent of their disposable income on necessities like housing costs, groceries, and utility bills.”
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Many Americans are still in a tough spot: Nearly 30% of all US households this year said they spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills, according to a Bank of America Institute report, up from 2019 levels.
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A recent survey by Lending Tree found that nearly a quarter of all households were unable to pay their energy bill in full at some point in the past year:
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LendingTree’s findings about electricity bill costs comes as it reported 23.4% of Americans experienced an inability to cover their entire energy bill or portions of it in the last year, based on Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data.
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The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to cut back on spending “on necessities” last year to pay utility costs:
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Needing to cover utility bills prompted 34.3% of Americans to curb their spending on necessary things – or eliminate some altogether – in at least one instance in the prior year, LendingTree said.
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Demand is at record levels at food banks across the U.S.…
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Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before? The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become
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that this is not true. In particular, the
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has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast. In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed. But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics. The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.
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By the end of November, more than 7,000 store closures had been announced in the United States. That’s a 69 percent increase from last year:
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According to a report from CoreSight Research, U.S. retailers had announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, which represents a 69% increase compared to the same time in 2023. These closures are spread across numerous different sectors of retail from auto parts to restaurants to pharmacies, leaving many consumers wondering which companies will survive. This brings us to GameStop, the beloved retail gaming store, which has not only been closing hundreds of retail store locations since 2020, but also appears to be on track to close hundreds more of its locations in the very near future.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Part 19:
When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases every year. In 2024, just 16% of Americans say they will spend more than last year, and 35% of Americans say they will spend less:
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-
The number of job openings in the US is now the lowest it has been since January 2020, but unlike January 2021, there is no pandemic to blame for the underperformance:
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-
Manufacturing numbers are extremely grim. For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp real decline:
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-
Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks:
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-
The cost of living crisis is officially out of control. According to Bank of America, nearly a third of all households “spend more than 95 percent of their disposable income on necessities like housing costs, groceries, and utility bills.”
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-
A recent survey by Lending Tree found that nearly a quarter of all households were unable to pay their energy bill in full at some point in the past year:
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-
The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to cut back on spending “on necessities” last year to pay utility costs:
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-
Demand is at record levels at food banks across the U.S.…
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-
By the end of November, more than 7,000 store closures had been announced in the United States. That’s a 69 percent increase from last year:
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This is the real reason for the H1B debate.
When times are good they are tolerated, but during lean times they become outlet for working class American rage, and the ruling class like it that way.
 
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