American Economics Thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
tl;dr Despite what some on twitter may say, the supermajority of US talent is home-grown and is not Asian
LOLOL Why do you waste your time surveying undergrads in fields where only PhDs matter? Better yet, why start new drivel when you ran away from every one of our previous conversations where I proved again and again that American STEM is nothing with Asian (Chinese) blood, which dominates the STEM speartip of every advanced nation right from student competitions? Go pick up from there if you can. Look at your own math team; it's indistinguishable from China's. No word diarrhea from any number of accounts can save you from that.
Most suburban white children will grow up and half-ass their way into a business degree before working in a back office administrative position (sales, marketing, communications, accounting, whatever) and breach 6 figures by middle-age by working as a real estate manager for Caseys General Stores or an investor relations manager for California Resources or whatever and stay that way until they retire in their cute fancy suburb.
Most try to do that. Most don't get that, which is why America's average income is nowhere near 6 figs. And the fact that most try to do that should alert you that America's economy is a house of cards completely dependent on the Asian STEM grads to do the heavy lifting and nation building while white suburban kids are nothing but mouth their whole lives.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
The Census "Asian" definition includes those from India and China (among other countries) but you bringing out a twitter poaster as evidence if anything is dumb.

The H1-B debate is mostly an extension of conservative griping that the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act remove racial (Asian and Latin) barriers to immigration resulted in a country that was less white as well as universities that want int'l students and corporates that want an easier recruitment cycle (as well as liberals belief that immigration is some sort of cosmic racial reparation). Nothing more. Nothing less.

Most suburban white children will grow up and half-ass their way into a business degree before working in a back office administrative position (sales, marketing, communications, accounting, whatever) and breach 6 figures by middle-age by working as a real estate manager for Caseys General Stores or an investor relations manager for California Resources or whatever and stay that way until they retire in their cute fancy suburb.
More likely to be some sort of warehouse or waiter service drone, you're right about the eventual 6 figure net worth however, a majority coming from having to pay inflated rent and other pointlessly inflated expenses. And then keep working until they die at an age earlier than Cubans.
 

KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
LOLOL Why do you waste your time surveying undergrads in fields where only PhDs matter?
It's not a survey of undergrads. It's a survey of graduate students based on undergraduate field of study since the Census does not ask about graduate field of study (nor does any other federal survey instrument).

The contention that "only PhDs matter" is ridiculous on its face - non-PhDs are employed at firms that want to minimize payrolls and PhDs are effectively 2 years of courses and 3-5 years of experiments/lab work (which can similarly be gotten through by employment).
Go pick up from there if you can. Look at your own math team; it's indistinguishable from China's. No word diarrhea from any number of accounts can save you from that.
Even if we were to assume small niche competitions offered only in select school districts were representative (lol no); it's just not representative of anything. It's just reflective of a highly unrepresentative immigrant stream of poor people from poor countries that managed to make their way into the United States - they'll adopt their scarcity mindset in the US and thus adopt "Tiger Mom" parenting of their children and make them study since that's what got them, their parents into the United States. For US families whom have had high incomes and stable employment since 1945, the downside risks of their children doing poorly in school are just not there - they'll go to an open-enrollment community college, transfer to a regional university, major in [whatever], and then take a job working for their uncle's mid-sized business in Gaithersburg or Snohomish.

See slides 27-28 - there really isn't much difference between Asian and White integenerational mobility - any hypothesis of uniquely deep Asian human capital is scant.
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
LOLOL Why do you waste your time surveying undergrads in fields where only PhDs matter? Better yet, why start new drivel when you ran away from every one of our previous conversations where I proved again and again that American STEM is nothing with Asian (Chinese) blood, which dominates the STEM speartip of every advanced nation right from student competitions? Go pick up from there if you can. Look at your own math team; it's indistinguishable from China's. No word diarrhea from any number of accounts can save you from that.

Most try to do that. Most don't get that, which is why America's average income is nowhere near 6 figs. And the fact that most try to do that should alert you that America's economy is a house of cards completely dependent on the Asian STEM grads to do the heavy lifting and nation building while white suburban kids are nothing but mouth their whole lives.
Suboids are not nearly the same quality as Asian (even if they're geographically located in the Asian supercontinent). I don't think they're necessary to carry American STEM. Statistically they're not better than local Americans, there's just more of them located in India, giving a quantity that has a quality on its own.

Of course American STEM is not realistically able to compete with Northeast Asians, no matter how many suboids or euros are spammed into the US system. Let's not even look at China, even Japan would on a per capita level be stronger in STEM than US. There's just less Japanese than American + Hindus + whatever random third world.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It's not a survey of undergrads. It's a survey of graduate students based on undergraduate field of study since the Census does not ask about graduate field of study (nor does any other federal survey instrument).
It's actually a survey of nothing. Now that I go to check your data, I see you posted links that lead to nowhere. Why did you run away so many times before? Can't you complete those arguments? I already put data there that you cannot refute and I don't like looking for them again...
The contention that "only PhDs matter" is ridiculous on its face - non-PhDs are employed at firms that want to minimize payrolls
Yeah, lesser jobs require lesser ability. Only PhDs matter at the top levels of engineering. I remember last time you posted some crap about America's STEM workforce being mostly home-grown and when I checked the data, it included everyone from janitors to cooks working at STEM institutes. Only PhDs matter.
and PhDs are effectively 2 years of courses and 3-5 years of experiments/lab work (which can similarly be gotten through by employment).
Not really. You know nothing about science. Lab assistants do a lifetime of lab work and experiments assigned to them. They never think or innovate like PhDs. They did nothing other than do what they are told while thinking about what's for dinner. Those who break through, think and innovate, publish and get their PhDs.
Even if we were to assume small niche competitions offered only in select school districts were representative (lol no); it's just not representative of anything. It's just reflective of a highly unrepresentative immigrant stream of poor people from poor countries that managed to make their way into the United States - they'll adopt their scarcity mindset in the US and thus adopt "Tiger Mom" parenting of their children and make them study since that's what got them, their parents into the United States. For US families whom have had high incomes and stable employment since 1945, the downside risks of their children doing poorly in school are just not there - they'll go to an open-enrollment community college, transfer to a regional university, major in [whatever], and then take a job working for their uncle's mid-sized business in Gaithersburg or Snohomish.
We did this shit before. Chinese STEM is on top in every first world country. Internationally, China's Chinese kids lead the international Chinese kids. If you don't use Chinese kids to compete, you finish 134 out of 156 teams. That's your big data, but that's only a small sliver of Chinese dominance in STEM. We've went through the other ones and you ran away every time.
See slides 27-28 - there really isn't much difference between Asian and White integenerational mobility - any hypothesis of uniquely deep Asian human capital is scant.
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This study has no conclusion or introduction. Data collection methods were through income tax returns, which fail to show low pay/illegal immigrants often paid with cash. The most drastic upward mobility in Asians is the "first gen dishwasher, second gen doctor/engineer." This is weeded out by data collection through tax filings.

Also, you falsley equate income with STEM capability. Like you said, suburban white kids like to do sales, real estate, investment, law basically fluff on top of a working economy. Those are well-paid.

But Asians do computer science, engineering, biological sciences, etc... They are often paid less but the backbone to all advanced society.
 

KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
It's actually a survey of nothing. Now that I go to check your data, I see you posted links that lead to nowhere. Why did you run away so many times before? Can't you complete those arguments? I already put data there that you cannot refute and I don't like looking for them again...
It's a general population survey, the UI appears to have broken when they've migrated to a new one but the item-level responses are still there. Play with the microdata if you want, it's there for the taking. The fact of the matter is that in graduate enrollments, the majority of enrollments are supermajority non-Asian native born.
Yeah, lesser jobs require lesser ability. Only PhDs matter at the top levels of engineering.
No, it's not. PhDs are NPV-negative for most US citizens and the idea that 5 years of lab work on an academic campus is somehow unusually transformative that 5 years of lab work on an industry campus is not is truly dumb. The idea that only "PhDs matter" is dumb (heck, even 2 of the 8 founders of Fairchild didn't have a PhD), nor do a large number of founders, even when you ignore the obvious endogeneity problem with PhDs and most education research in general (people that pursue higher studies are more capable to begin with and thus they would've achieved more at any level of education).
I remember last time you posted some crap about America's STEM workforce being mostly home-grown and when I checked the data, it included everyone from janitors to cooks working at STEM institutes. Only PhDs matter.
You can slice and dice it all you want, ~16% of the US workforce is foreign-born and so unless your looking at exceedingly narrow slices of the workforce, it's all going to be supermajority US-born including, inter alia, the STEM workforce.
We did this shit before. Chinese STEM is on top in every first world country. Internationally, China's Chinese kids lead the international Chinese kids. If you don't use Chinese kids to compete, you finish 134 out of 156 teams. That's your big data, but that's only a small sliver of Chinese dominance in STEM. We've went through the other ones and you ran away every time.
Yeah, because its a competition only Chinese people really care about. Most US students, including at highly ranked majority white school districts simply don't have it as an offering. The idea that a self-selected cohort of a few dozen people is something you can run inferential statistics on is lulzy. An opt-in competition that is completely unnecessary and irrelevant to the academic careers will unsurprisingly, not result in
This study has no conclusion or introduction. Data collection methods were through income tax returns, which fail to show low pay/illegal immigrants often paid with cash. The most drastic upward mobility in Asians is the "first gen dishwasher, second gen doctor/engineer." This is weeded out by data collection through tax filings.
Yes, the paper itself (the 100+ one that got published in the QJE) noted that foreign-born Asians may be different because of language ability and whatnot (including tax sheltering) and once you merge it with US-born Asians and their parents - the income convergence disappears conditional on parental income percentile. Thus the idea that there's unique human capital persistent in Asian culture or whatnot is dumb.
Also, you falsley equate income with STEM capability. Like you said, suburban white kids like to do sales, real estate, investment, law basically fluff on top of a working economy. Those are well-paid.

But Asians do computer science, engineering, biological sciences, etc... They are often paid less but the backbone to all advanced society.
Yeah, the key word there is "human capital". Asians are overrepresented in STEM (in large part from how the 1965 Immigration Act played out). They are still a minority in STEM. The idea that "suburban white kids" can't do STEM is also dumb; it flies in the face of surging CS enrollments and successful completions and a massive growth in the US software publishing sector, or the large increase in engineering enrollments following the National Defense Education Act.

If the Asian STEM advantage was truly as large as you claim, there should be a large wave of Asian founders and companies founded by Asians should have substantial excess equity returns compared to other similar businesses. That doesn't exist. Plus, it's entirely logical - US human capital development has moved on by leaps and bounds since 1965, yet even before 1965 when Asians were completely banned from the country, the United States was still far and beyond on the technological frontier (see Nasa moon landing, Kitty Hawk, the Interstate Highway System, etc).

You seem to have some racial resentment towards white people that seems to have evolved into "lol only Asians matter". Maybe you and Vivek can go together to therapy. Yes, Asians are a high performing minority (~6% of the total US population) in the United States, but at best ~0.5StDevs above the population mean and in no way all clustered at the right tail in any academic field. An entire argument based on extremely narrow slices of the labor market and an extremely niche competition simply do not have any statistical power.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
LOLOL Why do you waste your time surveying undergrads in fields where only PhDs matter? Better yet, why start new drivel when you ran away from every one of our previous conversations where I proved again and again that American STEM is nothing with Asian (Chinese) blood, which dominates the STEM speartip of every advanced nation right from student competitions? Go pick up from there if you can. Look at your own math team; it's indistinguishable from China's. No word diarrhea from any number of accounts can save you from that.

Most try to do that. Most don't get that, which is why America's average income is nowhere near 6 figs. And the fact that most try to do that should alert you that America's economy is a house of cards completely dependent on the Asian STEM grads to do the heavy lifting and nation building while white suburban kids are nothing but mouth their whole lives.
The key word is "average". Meaning statisticians are also counting high earners on 300K++ amongst those on 50K. Liars and politicians and damned statisticians use average when trying to gaslight a weary public.

The key term to look for is "median" ie the most common occuring figure and you'll find that most americans are more likely to be on sub 50K than making six figs.
 

KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
The NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates (NSF SED) asks about the citizenship status, and race of every doctoral degree earner (but not graduate degree) in the United States and published results in Table S2-11.

Some fields (Electrical Eng., Industrial Eng., Mech. Eng., and CS) have a majority of international students and US citizen Asians are generally consistent with their shares of the population (~6%) across PhD cohorts regardless of how large the international cohort is.

The incredibly small number of PhD holders in any given year, should however, indicate how silly this entire exercise is. There were ~7K total international doctoral earners in Engineering, Math, and CompSci in 2017. The idea that there of US birth cohorts with ~4M people, you can't find 0.175% more of them to complete a doctorate out of solely academic considerations is plainly ridiculous and it would require the presumption that the top ~30% of any given masters cohort can go onto achieve a PhD but the top ~35% of any given masters cohort cannot.

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2017 total doctoratesInternationalUS citizen/LPR Asian% temp visa% USC/LPR Asiantotal temp visa + USC/LPR Asian
Aerospace Eng.
342​
128​
26​
37%​
8%​
45%​
Chemical Eng.
1169​
606​
86​
52%​
7%​
59%​
Civil Eng.
1246​
776​
51​
62%​
4%​
66%​
Electrical Eng.
2669​
1923​
163​
72%​
6%​
78%​
Industrial Eng.
380​
238​
21​
63%​
6%​
68%​
Materials Eng.
877​
440​
57​
50%​
6%​
57%​
Mechanical Eng.
1498​
844​
78​
56%​
5%​
62%​
Computer Sciences
1934​
1089​
100​
56%​
5%​
61%​
Mathematics
1925​
943​
127​
49%​
7%​
56%​
12040​
6987​
709​
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It's a general population survey, the UI appears to have broken when they've migrated to a new one but the item-level responses are still there. Play with the microdata if you want, it's there for the taking.
Where are the working links? I scrutinize both data and collection.
The fact of the matter is that in graduate enrollments, the majority of enrollments are supermajority non-Asian native born.
The fact of the matter is that the only ones who matter are the Asian and mainly Chinese STEM.
No, it's not. PhDs are NPV-negative for most US citizens and the idea that 5 years of lab work on an academic campus is somehow unusually transformative that 5 years of lab work on an industry campus is not is truly dumb.
That you're uneducated but think you know is truly dumb. What you said is basically that a factory assembly person with 10 years experience is the same as a trained engineer.
The idea that only "PhDs matter" is dumb
Saying that a 168% increase is less than doubling is truly dumb. How's that?

Only PhDs matter in a STEM setting. I didn't say that PhDs run the top ecelons of the world.
(heck, even 2 of the 8 founders of Fairchild didn't have a PhD),
So... 6/8 did, right? LOL Sounds like they know it's important. The whole family can't be smart.
nor do a large number of founders, even when you ignore the obvious endogeneity problem with PhDs and most education research in general (people that pursue higher studies are more capable to begin with and thus they would've achieved more at any level of education).
Founders rely on a functioning society to protect them. Functioning society relies on science. Science is made by PhDs. If you have the a team of founders and politicians and I have a team of PhD's, my society will run yours over.
You can slice and dice it all you want, ~16% of the US workforce is foreign-born and so unless your looking at exceedingly narrow slices of the workforce, it's all going to be supermajority US-born including, inter alia, the STEM workforce.
Yeah, we did this before. It's all the janitors and bullshit. Up at the PhD level, it's 50/50... in a population where Asians are like 3%. You can slice that all you want, but you can't figure out fractions of the pie without Asians calculating it for you.
Yeah, because its a competition only Chinese people really care about.
Then don't go. You go, you lose, then you say you don't care? LOLOL Yeah, you soon won't care about global power either.
Most US students, including at highly ranked majority white school districts simply don't have it as an offering. The idea that a self-selected cohort of a few dozen people is something you can run inferential statistics on is lulzy. An opt-in competition that is completely unnecessary and irrelevant to the academic careers will unsurprisingly, not result in
They compete against each other domestically to determine the team, stupid. You don't just volunteer and go.
Yes, the paper itself (the 100+ one that got published in the QJE) noted that foreign-born Asians may be different because of language ability and whatnot (including tax sheltering) and once you merge it with US-born Asians and their parents - the income convergence disappears conditional on parental income percentile.
So basically, it used data that excluded the most drastic group (first gen low tier, often illegal immigrants) and you have no answer for that other than this meaningless crap.
Thus the idea that there's unique human capital persistent in Asian culture or whatnot is dumb.
That you equated income with STEM contribution/capability is dumb. That you did it against after I told you once is dumb. That you won't be able to escape it but will try to say it again will be dumber.

Once again, engineers may not earn as much as stock brokers and investment bankers, but they are the backbone of society. Yours is a house of cards when they are weak.
Yeah, the key word there is "human capital". Asians are overrepresented in STEM (in large part from how the 1965 Immigration Act played out). They are still a minority in STEM.
The higher the level, the less that is true. In high school, everyone studies STEM. In college, more Asians, less white. In masters, the trend continues. At the PhD level, 50% Asians in a 3% minority society.
The idea that "suburban white kids" can't do STEM is also dumb
That you've used "dumb" to describe everything you try and fail to argue against is... du... pathetic. Don't you know other words? Almost anybody can do anything; a bear can swim. But doesn't swim like a fish, which is why most bears don't spend that much time under water, just like why most suburban white kids stay away from STEM.
it flies in the face of surging CS enrollments and successful completions and a massive growth in the US software publishing sector, or the large increase in engineering enrollments following the National Defense Education Act.
Well, it flew in their faces. You showed that data last time too and I showed that you cherry-picked the increases while running around the many many decreases. Then you ran away.
If the Asian STEM advantage was truly as large as you claim, there should be a large wave of Asian founders and companies founded by Asians should have substantial excess equity returns compared to other similar businesses. That doesn't exist. Plus, it's entirely logical - US human capital development has moved on by leaps and bounds since 1965, yet even before 1965 when Asians were completely banned from the country,
The Asian STEM advantage is that large in a modern setting, but let's just say Chinese because honestly, lots of Asians don't deserve to hitchhike on this ride. The PRC was founded in 1949; China only very recently became a country with the significant capital, and it already has megacorps in tech popping up. So your observation is wrong for the timing but correct in seeing what has started.
the United States was still far and beyond on the technological frontier
We took a few hundred year nap, let the critterlings run ahead for a bit. Reeling them in now.
(see Nasa moon landing
Was that real? Do it again.
, Kitty Hawk,
What? The steam carrier? You know China's ahead of that now, right? China's electric launch system is ahead of the Ford even.
the Interstate Highway System, etc).
LOLOL What?? China has better highways, more of them
You seem to have some racial resentment towards white people that seems to have evolved into "lol only Asians matter".
Only Asians matter in STEM. Only White people matter in law/politics (in the West). I give them their due, but they are not due anything in STEM.

By the way, I meant Americans and Western Europeans. I love Russians and they do great science, especially in Russia. They're as white as it gets.
Maybe you and Vivek can go together to therapy.
I don't hang out with Indians. Did he also note your weakness in STEM?
Yes, Asians are a high performing minority (~6% of the total US population) in the United States, but at best ~0.5StDevs above the population mean and in no way all clustered at the right tail in any academic field. An entire argument based on extremely narrow slices of the labor market and an extremely niche competition simply do not have any statistical power.
How do you know about standard deviations and statistical power? I thought they taught those after percentage calculations... Your math teacher was supposed to make sure you know that anyone over a 100% increase is more than doubling before teaching you statistics or based on such a flimsly foundation, your statistics calculations just can't be trusted.

#7848 basically concludes exactly what I said about America's STEM composition. Why did you post evidence against yourself? Because you're mathematically illiterate? With this evidence, you don't even need to find those links I asked from from line 1: this is already done.
 
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KingBroward

New Member
Registered Member
The key word is "average". Meaning statisticians are also counting high earners on 300K++ amongst those on 50K. Liars and politicians and damned statisticians use average when trying to gaslight a weary public.

The key term to look for is "median" ie the most common occuring figure and you'll find that most americans are more likely to be on sub 50K than making six figs.
The most common occurring figure is the "mode", albeit you are indeed correct. The median (labor) income of any given person in the United States (and the mode) is $0 because ~39% of the US population is either too young to work (under 18) or too old to work (over 65). Outside of those, there will always be those that aren't working because they are in school, disabled, sick, have family emergencies/obligations, or are transitionally unemployed.

There are ~160 million people in the US that work, ~130 million of them full-time and ~30 million part-time (albeit sometimes for non-economic reasons such as being in school). Of those, ~160 million people that do work, 35,582,719 (~22%) of them have an income greater than 100K, 50,230,445 (~31%) of them have an income greater than 75K, and ~72,884,379 (~45%) of them have an income of greater than 50K. It's a very unequal distribution (41,373,412 (~26%) of them have an income <25K), but for those that are from a more comfortable background, their modal outcomes are near idyllic.

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