A US 3% growth rate vs. China's 5% growth rate would mean it would take 2-3 decades for China to converge to US GDP levels despite China having a 4x population of the United StatesEven if you assume all US' 3% growth is healthy and not simply inflation stacking, it's still a mathematical impossibility to catch up with China, which is accelerating away at 5%+.
Only hope US has at this point of catching up with China is the ww2 German strategy I.e. annexing lands into itself lol
Trump actually has that idea with Canadabut Canada alone still does not make up for the GDP gap between the 2 global major powers. Maybe try all of the EU...
American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
US can never converge in gdp unless China slows down a lot.
And so far every single black swan like 2008 or covid all hurts US way more than China.
I'm not going to reply to everything else since it's largely pointless but the 80% return rate isn't doctorates, it's mostly a gigantic surge in Chinese undergraduate seeking in other countries, but undergraduate degrees do not have paths to permanent residency in the United States (more generally). PhD earners largely stay in the US but regardless, the US economy is not make or break on ~3-4K replaceable students
Capital deepening vs total factor productivity growth are different.
The US economy is substantially larger and more competitive than China's (even ignoring how China's growth discontinuity has resulted in substantially decelerated growth that has yet to recover - )
Then why it drop it even further? Lol
Powell literally said they he doesn't expect any more interest rate drop due to inflation creeping up.
Interest rates moving too quickly in any one direction can cause financial sector chaos since a substantial amount of the financial sector borrows at fixed rates and lends at floating rates
No chaos. This is why the fixed rate is lower. This is why there are Swap agreements. Your view is very simplistic.
Wholesale borrowing (brokered deposits/CDs/commercial paper/etc) tends to be the treasury rate plus a spread. Swap agreements don't diffuse risk as much as they just push it to another place in the financial sector (the Reserve Primary Fund writing a CDS on Lehman CP didn't remove the risk of a Lehman default, it just pushed it to AIG)
Nah, he signaled that he is concerned about inflation in his speech.
Credit card defaults are on the rise. They need to lower interest rates to help out.
US GDP is inflated mainly by its health care expenditure which is significantly inflated. Also caused people to go into debt to pay medical bills.
Without the over inflated health care, their GDP would be substantially lower
We're back to pretending record US deficit spending unlocked a US growth hack.
My sustainable, worldbeating, high quality deficit spending vs your wasteful, low productivity, capital deepening.