A US 3% growth rate vs. China's 5% growth rate would mean it would take 2-3 decades for China to converge to US GDP levels despite China having a 4x population of the United States
1. Taking 2-3 decades to catch up is better than getting run down in 2-3 decades.
2. In PPP, China is already much larger than the US and outgrowing it further. This is the much better indicator of domestic economic size. Nominal GDP is entirely at the mercy of exchange rate fluctuations which China can change if it wishes to be larger or smaller.
I'm not going to reply to everything else since it's largely pointless
Yeah, because you get smothered every time in counter facts.
but the 80% return rate isn't doctorates, it's mostly a gigantic surge in Chinese undergraduate seeking in other countries, but undergraduate degrees do not have paths to permanent residency in the United States (more generally). PhD earners largely stay in the US but regardless,
2024 numbers, >80% for all students, rising but unspecified numbers for STEM PhD. You also have to consider that someone doing a STEM PhD is in pursuit of knowledge and that really only starts, rather than ends at the PhD phase. So it is normal to stay longer and learn more through post doc or work experience. When STEM PhDs return with a decade or 2 of work experience, they are really packed with mental goodies.
the US economy is not make or break on ~3-4K replaceable students
Its tech relies on what those students become; at about 50%, more if you add other temp visas.
Capital deepening vs total factor productivity growth are different.
When it comes to the economy, China's grows faster. When it comes to technological advancement, robot density, productivity, China grows faster and is already in many areas more advanced than the US. Excuses for why 3 is higher than 5 is why you have no chance against China's rise.
The US economy is substantially larger and more competitive than China's
That's not what your article says. The US economy is much smaller than China's at PPP, the real economic indicator, and its GDP growth and technological level are being outstripped by China.
(even ignoring how China's growth discontinuity has resulted in substantially decelerated growth that has yet to recover -
)
"Consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world's economic gravity will substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India."
States that this is a dissenting opinion to the consensus.
"China's growth record in the past 35 years has been remarkable, and nothing in our analysis suggests that a sharp slowdown is inevitable. Still, our analysis suggests that forecasters and planners looking at China would do well to contemplate a much wider range of outcomes than are typically considered."
States that this is very iffy and China could just blow right past it like everyone else says. Basically, the article was written just to bring up a side possibility.
