2023 Pakistan Civil Unrest

Dalit

New Member
Registered Member
The US didn't do anything serious. It just gave some empty promises, said some good words, and that's what it all took for the coup to happen. Its hilarious and pathetic at the same time to witness how easy it was for the US to disrupt them.



Same. In theory every country in the world is suitable for BRI. In practise though, the problems start with politics. Do they have a stable political system? Even if your bureaucracy is shit, even if your laws are shit, if your political system is stable China can use trade as a way for local businesses to lobby for better laws or better regulations to smooth business, investment and trade links with China.

That's how normal politics work. You have local interests lobbying for their own benefits

The problem on Pakistan is that due to their intelligence agency being under military control lol, the military is basically the leader of the country, has firm control on politics, and they can easily ignore civilian and business pressure. Local interests have to go to the military first and not to the civilian government to argue their case. And what does the military know about economics and business? Nothing!
Which is partly why Pakistan's economy is what it is today.

Unless a major systemic change happens, I don't see much hope with Pakistan. China can invest all it wants in CPEC but if the military leadesrhip coups and destroys Pakistan's economy every decade or so, it won't do much.

It was easy because the military allowed it to happen. In Pakistan nothing happens without the approval of military generals. The Pakistani generals think that they are the ultimate authority with regards to political matters. You are absolutely correct.
 

Dalit

New Member
Registered Member
I never really have a high hope for BRI in Pakistan or should I say CPEC. Pakistan is too unstable for long term projects and development. Imran Khan initally didn't fully embrace CPEC which has slowed down many projects for years. After he restarted those projects and finally committed to CPEC, the coup happened.

Although the military government and the new administration have fully embraced CPEC. Pakistan is on brink of a major catastrophe that would make further investment very risky for China.

However, BRI is a very long term projects that requires decades to bear fruits. Any derailing or setback isn't going to fundamentally change things on the ground forever. Trade is still booming with most BRI nations even without the interconnect routes that got delayed due to politics. As long as China has Russia in the North and ASEAN in the south, BRI might not be as vital for China in the short term.

However, it is just sad to see how easy for the US to destabilize Pakistan. US is not even trying but all those Pakistan politicians and military establishment felt that they would make a coup without any consequences with the US blessing.

In Pakistan political parties despise each other. The military also likes to politically interfere. The Americans have figured out that the only way to control Pakistan is through the military. The Americans have controlled much of the political proceedings throughout Pakistan's existence with the help of the Pakistani army.

For much of the past decade the Pakistani military and the US have been at loggerheads during the war in Afghanistan. Although the Pakistani military always holds a soft spot for the Americans. You have to realise that many highly placed Pakistani military officials receive training in the US. There are military exchange programs between the US and Pakistan. Many Pakistani military officers retire in the US. Many relatives and family members belonging to Pakistani military officers reside in the US. Pakistani military officials and Pakistani elites have businesses in the US. You can understand the conflict of interest.

As soon as the the US/NATO war in Afghanistan ended, the Americans realised that the only way to leverage Afghanistan would be through the Pakistani military. The CIA began to rebuild covert relations with the Pakistani army. Imran Khan was ousted. It is no secret that the US disapproved Imran Khan's way of politics.
 

Dalit

New Member
Registered Member
That's because the Pakistani elite are all invested either in the Gulf states or in the UK/US/CA/AU. They don't actually care about what's best for their own country. They only care about personal enrichment.

The previous COAS (Chief of Army Staff) of Pakistan, Bajwa, had a couple of brothers who all apparently ran a bunch of Domino's Pizza joints in the US. This is how petty the elite in Pakistan is.

The lesson for China would be that it's a country you can't trust because the elite is thoroughly corrupt and bought off by Western interests. The most popular politician, Imran Khan, is not but he's also without much support among the army and the ISI.

Throwing more money into Pakistan when large parts of its elite are bought off by Western interests is a mistake. Better focus on ASEAN or other countries.

China has sincere intentions with regards to Pakistan. The Pakistani people overwhelmingly support Chinese investment and assistance in Pakistan. China is a direct neighbor of Pakistan. Pakistan is unfortunately unable to reap the full benefits of a rising China. One would have thought that after all the misfortunes Pakistan would finally learn from mistakes. Unfortunately Pakistan has not learnt. Mostly because the Pakistani elite are unreliable and untrustworthy.

China has already invested a vast amount of money in Pakistan. It would be wise for China to stay the course, but cautiously.
 

Dalit

New Member
Registered Member
Indeed. Helping Pakistan develop is a strategic decision that China has taken long time ago.
Nevermind Pakistan's politics, as long as it is not a full US vassal, China will keep supporting it and trying to make it richer and stronger.

The issue I have is that due to its unstable political system, China's help can't do as much as it could in a stable country

Don't also forget that it is in US/Indian interest to disturb the relationship between China and Pakistan. It is no secret that the US/India are vehemently opposed to China Pakistan relations in any shape or form.

It makes absolute sense from a US/Indian perspective to destabilize Pakistan economically and politically. That would make it difficult for China to develop CPEC. No country can invest in a politically and economically unstable country.

Pakistani elites are in a sense their own enemy.
 

Dalit

New Member
Registered Member
The US hand was behind the scenes. I don't blame it all to the US though. They "encouraged" it, and so the local snakes (military, political opposition) found the courage to coup him.

The US didn't dirty its hands directly, it just said a couple of sweet words, promised some stuff, and let the local interests to do the rest.

All things considered, that was a quite easy and hassle-free coup that the US instigated/encouraged.

In hindsight, the US really didn't deliver much other than probably an IMF loan. Pakistan is economically a complete mess. Pakistan heavily relies on remittances from expats in Western countries and workers in the Middle East. Even the remittances have reduced. China and Middle Eastern countries haven't come forward to bailout Pakistan as they used to. This is also very telling. One can assume that traditional allies are also sick and tired of a dysfunctional Pakistani elite.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
In hindsight, the US really didn't deliver much other than probably an IMF loan. Pakistan is economically a complete mess. Pakistan heavily relies on remittances from expats in Western countries and workers in the Middle East. Even the remittances have reduced. China and Middle Eastern countries haven't come forward to bailout Pakistan as they used to. This is also very telling. One can assume that traditional allies are also sick and tired of a dysfunctional Pakistani elite.
So in other words Pakistan elites had been coopted by the US, it's the SOP of American hegemony and I wonder why the Chinese haven't follow? it is cheaper by magnitude rather than committing billions on CPEC?
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
So in other words Pakistan elites had been coopted by the US, it's the SOP of American hegemony and I wonder why the Chinese haven't follow? it is cheaper by magnitude rather than committing billions on CPEC?
I can't really tell. My gut tells me it is not about China or US, it is about their personal reasons. It just happened to align with US interest this time.

Imran Khan is getting too popular for military junta's comfort. They removed Imran because some of his policy and orientation is unconductive of elite's interests, not that they prefer US over China in particular. All US needs is a little bit nudge here and there helping it happen. Most of the drivers are within Pakistan.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
So in other words Pakistan elites had been coopted by the US, it's the SOP of American hegemony and I wonder why the Chinese haven't follow? it is cheaper by magnitude rather than committing billions on CPEC?
Because elites the world over can immigrate their entire families to the US. China doesn’t allow immigrations except in some narrow cases.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I can't really tell. My gut tells me it is not about China or US, it is about their personal reasons. It just happened to align with US interest this time.

Imran Khan is getting too popular for military junta's comfort. They removed Imran because some of his policy and orientation is unconductive of elite's interests, not that they prefer US over China in particular. All US needs is a little bit nudge here and there helping it happen. Most of the drivers are within Pakistan.
Its the same when the US had influence, here Marcos campaign to follow Duterte's independent policy BUT deviate when in office. We all know his family history so did the American, they just pull the lever and wallah!!! a Pro US policy and the American didn't need to spend a dime...lol
 
Top