China still has some finals in rowing/kayaking. You need to check to be sure. They are in team synchronized swimming, but most likely Russia will win, and China will be second.
If China is to lead in the gold medal count after the conclusion of the Olympics it needs to win at least 3 more gold medals imo, but more like 5 to be very confident.
I can't imagine that out of 11 gold medal finals the US is participating in that they lose the great majority of them. Their teams in most of these finals are more dominant than their opposition. To be safe, assume they win 8 gold of 11 finals.
US total gold count would then be 39 and China would need to win 4 gold to lead.