2019 India-Pakistani border clash

maint1234 · Apr 11, 2019

Hi, my first post but going through this thread and frankly not impressed.
Are most members here from China and Pakistan or is their a mix of other countries ? Since no flags are shown, its difficult to gauge.
I was going through pdf and didn't join as the discussions their were more racist and religious than defence related.
On this topic, as a Indian I would advise that india does not have a army culture. The media does not understand the working of the armed forces and except for the last few years, a serving army person would never be in the media.
So anything in our media should immediately be viewed with scepticism unless its literally telecast live, like the press conference.I was reading about the difference in coverage by ndtv and timesnow, ndtv is a Congress owned channel while Times normally parrots the ruling government, so the intentions are different.
From a armchair perceptive, 2 questions are uppermost in my mind - 1. Why did the mig21 pilot ingress so deep into pak side of loc, was it a lack of discipline ? As per my knowledge, fighter jets never hunt alone and mig21 is basically a point defense aircraft. So for me it's puzzling what he was trying to achieve unless he was in hot pursuit. But the pak general has claimed that no PAF jet crossed the LOC, so its very puzzling.
2. Why didn't the pak government just give immediate access of the balakot madrassa to the international media ? Why wait for more than a month. They could have stopped all speculation in its tracks a month back. Even if they wanted to remove evidence of its "assets" from the site, wouldn't take a month.

Mohsin77 · Apr 12, 2019

maint1234 said:
Hi, my first post but going through this thread and frankly not impressed.

As opposed to .... ?

1. Why did the mig21 pilot ingress so deep into pak side of loc, was it a lack of discipline ? As per my knowledge, fighter jets never hunt alone and mig21 is basically a point defense aircraft. So for me it's puzzling what he was trying to achieve unless he was in hot pursuit. But the pak general has claimed that no PAF jet crossed the LOC, so its very puzzling.

2. Why didn't the pak government just give immediate access of the balakot madrassa to the international media ? Why wait for more than a month. They could have stopped all speculation in its tracks a month back. Even if they wanted to remove evidence of its "assets" from the site, wouldn't take a month.

1: The Mig ingress wasn't "deep." He was probably inside the LOC for no more than 30 seconds, flying at 500 knots. These things happen fast. By the time he was probably told by GCs to turn back, it must have been too late, since he was clearly inside the kill zone set up by the PAF.

2: What "speculation"? Everyone else was convinced India hit nothing but trees (and one crow) from the initial reports, pictures of the impact craters, and then finally the satellite imagery. All of this, which came from 3rd party sources, was conclusive for the rest of the world (and even a lot of Indians.) Only pro-BJP sections of the Indian media were still "speculating." They weren't even addressing Pakistani claims in their talk shows, but were forced to counter Reuters and NY Times etc.

However, if the Pak Army had allowed the reporters inside the actual madrassah on Day Zero, even though the madrassah was still standing, the people inside it would've done all the damage themselves (lolz.) The people would've told the reporters: "Yea, this used to be a training camp for JeM and we still support its leader" etc. which would've been an embarrassing distraction. That's why the Army didn't let the reporters in.

I talked to a friend who lived near the area and he said that this site was a JeM camp many years ago, where training was given to militants. However, all that closed down and now its just a school for local children. However, the population there is still loyal to the JeM. Even though they are not active anymore in militancy. But this is too nuanced a picture for the Army to paint to international reporters. They kept it simple.

maint1234 · Apr 12, 2019

Mohsin77 said:
As opposed to .... ?

1: The Mig ingress wasn't "deep." He was probably inside the LOC for no more than 30 seconds, flying at 500 knots. These things happen fast. By the time he was probably told by GCs to turn back, it must have been too late, since he was clearly inside the kill zone set up by the PAF.

2: What "speculation"? Everyone else was convinced India hit nothing but trees (and one crow) from the initial reports, pictures of the impact craters, and then finally the satellite imagery. All of this, which came from 3rd party sources, was conclusive for the rest of the world (and even a lot of Indians.) Only pro-BJP sections of the Indian media were still "speculating." They weren't even addressing Pakistani claims in their talk shows, but were forced to counter Reuters and NY Times etc.

However, if the Pak Army had allowed the reporters inside the actual madrassah on Day Zero, even though the madrassah was still standing, the people inside it would've done all the damage themselves (lolz.) The people would've told the reporters: "Yea, this used to be a training camp for JeM and we still support its leader" etc. which would've been an embarrassing distraction. That's why the Army didn't let the reporters in.

I talked to a friend who lived near the area and he said that this site was a JeM camp many years ago, where training was given to militants. However, all that closed down and now its just a school for local children. However, the population there is still loyal to the JeM. Even though they are not active anymore in militancy. But this is too nuanced a picture for the Army to paint to international reporters. They kept it simple.

Appreciate your answer. But you didn't answer my doubt. Why did he cross over even for 30 seconds? Because unless you have a target whether in the air or ground, you don’t just fly your plane into enemy territory. And what happened to his partner ? No videos of the 2nd mig21. Some ppl claim he was disoriented due to jamming, but his partner would suffer the same jamming. Just trying to understand what made him fly into heavily defended airspace.why not just use the bvr missiles like the Pakistanis did ? Can't believe he wandered alone into PoK and started looking around for targets. Maybe it was just a brain fade.

Regarding the madrassa access,, why wait for 40 days to allow the media. Why close the madrassa for 20 days ? After 40 days did the locals become less supportive of jem ? Not plausible. The Pakistani army could replace the locals in a few days. Why wait for 40 days ? And Pakistani support for militants is not really a secret.. A Singaporean TV channel had a program a few weeks back, where they openly interviewed anti India militants in Pakistan. And the TV Crew eventually had to run from the interview spot.

And another thing, has this balakot bombing demolished the nuke deterance that Pakistan had ? Do you think that India has changed the playbook. And now any part of Pakistan is open season for punitive bombing runs in case of terrorist attacks ? Because now India knows that Pakistan is not going to go all wmd and at max will try to get parity by a revenge attack ?

PiSigma · Apr 12, 2019

maint1234 said:
Appreciate your answer. But you didn't answer my doubt. Why did he cross over even for 30 seconds? Because unless you have a target whether in the air or ground, you don’t just fly your plane into enemy territory. And what happened to his partner ? No videos of the 2nd mig21. Some ppl claim he was disoriented due to jamming, but his partner would suffer the same jamming. Just trying to understand what made him fly into heavily defended airspace.why not just use the bvr missiles like the Pakistanis did ? Can't believe he wandered alone into PoK and started looking around for targets. Maybe it was just a brain fade.

Regarding the madrassa access,, why wait for 40 days to allow the media. Why close the madrassa for 20 days ? After 40 days did the locals become less supportive of jem ? Not plausible. The Pakistani army could replace the locals in a few days. Why wait for 40 days ? And Pakistani support for militants is not really a secret.. A Singaporean TV channel had a program a few weeks back, where they openly interviewed anti India militants in Pakistan. And the TV Crew eventually had to run from the interview spot.

And another thing, has this balakot bombing demolished the nuke deterance that Pakistan had ? Do you think that India has changed the playbook. And now any part of Pakistan is open season for punitive bombing runs in case of terrorist attacks ? Because now India knows that Pakistan is not going to go all wmd and at max will try to get parity by a revenge attack ?

Demolished Pakistan's nuke deterance? What! How did you make that up? You do realize the couple hundred nukes Pakistan got are all mobile, and don't park together right?

Mohsin77 · Apr 12, 2019

maint1234 said:
Appreciate your answer. But you didn't answer my doubt.

I'm not trying to answer your "doubts." I'm merely pointing out the obvious here.

Can't believe he wandered alone into PoK and started looking around for targets.

Well, that's what your pilot said, on camera.

And he has had ample opportunity to change his statement since he's been back in India, but he hasn't.

And what happened to his partner ?

You mean "wingman." You should ask the IAF this question.

After 40 days did the locals become less supportive of jem ?

The timing is obviously political (indian elections.)

Do you think that India has changed the playbook

If by "changing the playbook" you mean completely destroying one's own tactical credibility, then yes, India has definitely changed the playbook.

And now any part of Pakistan is open season for punitive bombing runs in case of terrorist attacks ?

.......... wow. lolz.

maint1234 · Apr 12, 2019

PiSigma said:
Demolished Pakistan's nuke deterance? What! How did you make that up? You do realize the couple hundred nukes Pakistan got are all mobile, and don't park together right?

I mean India did not cross the LOC even during kargil which was by any measures was a much more serious action by pakistan, and now it has actually bombed mainland Pakistan.
The restraint was explained by rationalising that it could lead to a major war and Pakistan army and politicians would wave the nuke button after even a threatening comment from India.
But now we see that Pakistan in their own words "deliberately " missed Indian army posts in retaliation. Just compare the 2 statements, India says we bombed mainland Pakistan and killed Pakistanis while Pakistan is downplaying and saying nothing happened and we did not even try to target Indian facilities. Not a very effective detterent in my view to future Indian punitive attacks.

manqiangrexue · Apr 12, 2019

maint1234 said:
I mean India did not cross the LOC even during kargil which was by any measures was a much more serious action by pakistan, and now it has actually bombed mainland Pakistan.

And Pakistan bombed India and then shot down at least one of its jets. I see absolutely no backing off here.

maint1234 said:
But now we see that Pakistan in their own words "deliberately " missed Indian army posts in retaliation. Just compare the 2 statements, India says we bombed mainland Pakistan and killed Pakistanis while Pakistan is downplaying and saying nothing happened and we did not even try to target Indian facilities. Not a very effective detterent in my view to future Indian punitive attacks.

You can't compare how aggressive the comments are without knowing the truth. If what happened was that India missed its target in Pakistan, then Pakistan will say so and an embarrassed India will insist it didn't despite claiming so without evidence. What should Pakistan do? Make up the number of deaths and plant fake dead bodies at the scene to justify war when India bombed an abandoned lot?

By your logic, India was much more reserved than Pakistan because Pakistan said they shot down an India jet and produced the wreckage while pilot and India says it accidentally shot down its own chopper killing 7. Not very effective Indian deterrent to prevent Pakistan from waging future air strikes if you ask me.

ougoah · Apr 13, 2019

maint1234 said:
Hi, my first post but going through this thread and frankly not impressed.
Are most members here from China and Pakistan or is their a mix of other countries ? Since no flags are shown, its difficult to gauge.
I was going through pdf and didn't join as the discussions their were more racist and religious than defence related.
On this topic, as a Indian I would advise that india does not have a army culture. The media does not understand the working of the armed forces and except for the last few years, a serving army person would never be in the media.
So anything in our media should immediately be viewed with scepticism unless its literally telecast live, like the press conference.I was reading about the difference in coverage by ndtv and timesnow, ndtv is a Congress owned channel while Times normally parrots the ruling government, so the intentions are different.
From a armchair perceptive, 2 questions are uppermost in my mind - 1. Why did the mig21 pilot ingress so deep into pak side of loc, was it a lack of discipline ? As per my knowledge, fighter jets never hunt alone and mig21 is basically a point defense aircraft. So for me it's puzzling what he was trying to achieve unless he was in hot pursuit. But the pak general has claimed that no PAF jet crossed the LOC, so its very puzzling.
2. Why didn't the pak government just give immediate access of the balakot madrassa to the international media ? Why wait for more than a month. They could have stopped all speculation in its tracks a month back. Even if they wanted to remove evidence of its "assets" from the site, wouldn't take a month.

There could be so, so, so many reasonable explanations for both 1 and 2 that we simply cannot list them all out here. Suffice to say, there are plenty enough to not treat such "anomaly" as conspiracy or aiding in India's claims?

maint1234 · Apr 13, 2019

ougoah said:
There could be so, so, so many reasonable explanations for both 1 and 2 that we simply cannot list them all out here. Suffice to say, there are plenty enough to not treat such "anomaly" as conspiracy or aiding in India's claims?

Thank you for your valuable input.

maint1234 · Apr 13, 2019

manqiangrexue said:
And Pakistan bombed India and then shot down at least one of its jets. I see absolutely no backing off here.

You can't compare how aggressive the comments are without knowing the truth. If what happened was that India missed its target in Pakistan, then Pakistan will say so and an embarrassed India will insist it didn't despite claiming so without evidence. What should Pakistan do? Make up the number of deaths and plant fake dead bodies at the scene to justify war when India bombed an abandoned lot?

By your logic, India was much more reserved than Pakistan because Pakistan said they shot down an India jet and produced the wreckage while pilot and India says it accidentally shot down its own chopper killing 7. Not very effective Indian deterrent to prevent Pakistan from waging future air strikes if you ask me.

But you must accept that Pakistan has a habit of hiding its losses.
We have seen this in kargil.
In awacs case where they lost 3 planes.
In LoC where their minister said in Parliament that troop losses cannot be disclosed as it would effect morale of the army.

What makes you think they are being transparent now ? 20 minutes media visit after 40 days.!!

2019 India-Pakistani border clash

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