Gentlemen! Surely you both know the rules of the game?
With geopolitical poker, you either go big or you go home. You are both correct in identifying Crimea as the consolation prize, but if either of you were in Putin's boots, why on earth would you be so quick to settle with this boogie prize when the whole of Ukraine is still well in play?
Perhaps you have not heard about Putin's ace in the hole? Yanukovych is safe in Russia, and that gives Putin all the edge he needs to go all in and play for the true prize.
If I was Putin, I would already be infiltrating in special forces and FSB agents into Crimea and other strongly pro Russian Ukrainian areas to set up networks and build support.
When those networks are in place, I would have Yanukovych declare, with some merit, that the Kiev Parliament had been compromised by the 'extremist thugs' who effectively overran the Capital, and that all decisions and declarations made by Parliament since had been done so under duress, and thus unconstitutional and illegal.
Yanukovych has already rejected the interim government and declared himself the true president of Ukriane, I(as Putin) would have him sneak into Crimea, to raise a clarion call to all 'true' Ukrainians to rise up against the 'extremists' that have 'hijacked' the country, and to rise up in defense of democrasy and freedom and all that good stuff the west loves to go on and on about. At the same time, Yanukovych should declare that this is an internal Ukrainian matter and demand outside powers stay out. He should also demand that the Ukrianian army adhere to their previous position of neutrality and stay out of it as well.
The previously mentioned Russian special forces and agents would signal their networks to rise up, and Yanukovych would instantly have himself a 'people's army' ready to march on Kiev.
This people's army should not have too many military grade weapons, probably just the trained soldiers and a few fillers to not make it too obvious, and will be armed mostly with clubs and sticks and other improvised weapons like the mobs in Kiev.
If the Ukriane army stays out of it, this 'people's army', buttressed by special forces armed with assault rifles and unconstrained by rules of engagement will crush the mob in Kiev with ease, take over Parliament and then Yanukovych can get the surviving MPs to rubber stamp anything he likes.
The blood he had to shed would make Yanukovych a pariah in the eyes of the west and with much of his own people, which in turn would only bind him closer to Russia, and Ukriane with him.
That's the best case scenario for Putin.
If the Ukraine military breaks its vow of neutrality and crushes Yanukovych's people's army, Putin can use the bloodshed to invoke R2P and send in the tanks.
More bloody, more obvious, less plausible deniability and more chance other foreign powers might get involved, but odds are the Russian army can crush Ukriane's army, and no western nations has the stomach to get into a head on ground war with Russia, so similar results, only a lot more messy and at a much higher price in terms of blood, treasure and diplomatic fallout.
In the unlikely event Yanukovych's people's army fails, or if the Ukriane military could somehow defeat the Russian army, Putin could always play for Crimea then. By that time, there would have been so much bloodshed, most would welcome an end to the violence and would settle for Crimea breaking away and joining Russian far easier than if Russia started off only trying to play for Crimea in the first place.
That's the optimal game plan for Putin, the only real question is whether he has the balls and ruthlessness to spill that much blood. I look him in the eyes and say yes to both accounts, and I think most world leaders would agree with me. That's what makes Putin such a dangerous opponent to play geopolitical poker with. He has the balls to go all in, and is not constrained by the moral or ethical concerns that might make other leaders bulk.
