2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

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Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

A friend emailed me last night and indicated that there were rumors about an email that one of the Ukrainian officials was circulating that the Russians were sending troops to the Crimea on Russian landing ships. When you actually drilled into it it mentioned a landing craft that is already stationed at Sevestapol that has 200 Russian special forces on it.

I let him know that this was not unusual, that the ship and personnel were regullarly stationed there. It would require a much larger contingent if the Russians were "moving" on the Crimea.

Now, I know that the Crimea is very near and dear to many Russians hearts. It is also a strategic port for them on the Black Sea giving them access to the Med. 2042 is a long ways off. It is still 28 years from now at which point I will most probably be beyond any earthly concern. Lots can happen between now and then...but, IMHO, barring a fairly significant realignment in things, I do not believe that Russia will give up their base at Sevastapol now, or in the forseeable future.

Yes, the Crimea could be a flashpoint. The Russian Federation parliament voted...I believe in 1992 or 1993...to indicate their sense that the transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954 was not done appropriately and therefore took issue with it. That's another 22 yearsago and nothing was done about it.

For 60 years the Crimea has been a part of the Ukraine. But is is an autonomus region and so there is wiggle room if things get worse.

Does the Russian ehtnic population in the Crimea want to be a part of Russia again? Are they committed to it and actively seeking it? Is the rest of Ukkraine prepared to give it up? Is the rest of Ukraine willing to fight to keep it...and if they did, how many citizens in the Crimea would support the Ukraine versus Russia?

What would the EU's reaction be if any attempt to take it by force occurred? What would be the US response?

All of this will figure heavily into what the Russians plan on doing.

Putin is a strong Russian leader. When he, in essence, "liberated," or broke off the two provinces of Georgia, he was met by stiff resistance from the international community, particularly from the US and EU. I believe that stiff resistance kept Georgia from being completely taken back by Russia at the time.

Could that happen in the Ukraine with the Crimea? It is possible. It just depends on what actions Putin takes and what he bases them on, and how the people in the Crimea and in the Ukraine feel about it. It also depends on the US response. Right now the US President is viewed as weak and ineffectual...and any threats by the US may be taken fairly lightly.

Remember, Obama himself, who thought he was off camera at the time, told Putin in an meeting before the 2012 election that he would be in a poisition to be a lot more flexible with Russia and Putin if he won the elections and did not have to worry about re-election again. I am sure Putin has not forgotten that...and views Obama as weak in this regard.

Time is going to tell, But the longer it goes without a major incident, and as Ukraine gets back to some sense of normallcy and holds its elections...the chances of such an escalation will decrease.

Right and with Sec Def Hagels, "stripping" the military publicly, and Obama's little lecture to the Governors, about not pushing back on the cuts in their respective Guard units, that perspective is our present unfortunate reality, the BHO team are "loosers" on defense, the poor old Forrestal is representative of our current and future direction, "First in Defense" has become "First in Defeat". God Save the Republic!
 

chuck731

Banned Idiot
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

I think the rapidity and completeness of Yanukovitch's fall would have come as a surprise even to Putin. I think just 5 days ago, it must have seemed like Yanukovitch would survive as strong pro-Russian influence in Kiev even if he is forced to give way on preliminary steps towards integration with the EU.

So even Putin must now take his time to evaluate his options in light of sudden and unexpected collapse of his Ukrainian position, to say nothing of mobilizing his resources, military, economic, and more black and undercover varieties.

I would think Putin would try to promote independence of Russian speaking Ukrainians more obviously as a way of putting pressure on the Kiev government and forcing Kiev government to compromise, and more subtlely as a way to encourage Kiev government to overreact to the the loss of its authority and territorial integrity, and hopefully shed blood in Russian speaking eastern Ukraine to give Russia cover to impose harsh economic reprisal to weaken Ukranian government and economy.

Whether Russia would actually intervene would depend on how much sessesionist ferver Russia can whip up, whether Ukrainian regime can be encouraged to overplay its hand and crack down harshly on any seditionist activity Russia can stir up in eastern Ukraine, and how tough western attitude would seem to be. I think Putin could count on no international support from any quarter, excep possibly from Belarus, for such an act, so all other winds have to be made to blow as favorably as possible for him to commit Russia to such a step.

But he would try to make the winds all blow right. But I think it is a tall order.
 
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

How do you see the ethnic Poles and Slovaks in Western Ukraine being a factor? The eastern portion of Poland was incorporated into both Belarus and Ukraine and a portion of Czechoslovakia (now Slovakia) was incorporated into Ukraine. If the unthinkable events of Ukraine fracturing like Yugoslavia do you foresee these regions would seek reunification?
Hard to tell.

My own ancestors on my mother's mother side come from the Slovak regions and immigrated to Texas.

I went into Hungary and Romania in the mid 1990s doing some engineering consulting and the area was a hotbed...with a lot of fighting even then not far from where I was located.

But I do not get that sort of feeling at all at this point with the Slovak peoples in the west of Ukraine, or the Polish ethnic peoples there. I do not know of them demanding or looking for an opportunity to brak away from the Ukraine at this point. I also do not see a compelling reason for it.

As a result, I personally feel the western borders of the Ukrainian will remain pretty solid. I think and hope that the eastern areas will too...but we are going to just have to wait and see. In the east, the Crimea is definitely the most vulnerable area.

Putin is shrewd, and he will attempt to ensure that as many stars align in his favor before he acts. And even then, unless the Ukrainians hand him a reason (as the Georgians did), he is not apt to act percipitously. The Gerogians were pushed hard by their own opposition factions and I have no doubt at the time that Russian forces had inflitrated and were helping to bring it to a crisis. When they (the Georgians) took overt, strong military actions to put down the actions that provoked them...they walked right into a Putin Bear trap.

It has not been that long ago...and I have to believe the Ukrainians know this and will (hopefully) avoid the same trap.

It is intersting how they both occur around and right after the Olympics. Hard to belive that is necessarily coincidental. The fall of Putin's ally however has, I believe, been more swift, and was accomplished with far more Ukrianian citizen commitment and direct actions than Putin and his advisors would have thought...and so that has also thrown some significant iron into their works. How it will end up is still in the air...but short of some major mistakes, I think it can be worked out diplomatically.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

Hard to tell.

My own ancestors on my mother's mother side come from the Slovak regions and immigrated to Texas.

I went into Hungary and Romania in the mid 1990s doing some engineering consulting and the area was a hotbed...with a lot of fighting even then not far from where I was located.

But I do not get that sort of feeling at all at this point with the Slovak peoples in the west of Ukraine, or the Polish ethnic peoples there. I do not know of them demanding or looking for an opportunity to brak away from the Ukraine at this point. I also do not see a compelling reason for it.

As a result, I personally feel the western borders of the Ukrainian will remain pretty solid. I think and hope that the eastern areas will too...but we are going to just have to wait and see. In the east, the Crimea is definitely the most vulnerable area.

Putin is shrewd, and he will attempt to ensure that as many stars align in his favor before he acts. And even then, unless the Ukrainians hand him a reason (as the Georgians did), he is not apt to act percipitously. The Gerogians were pushed hard by their own opposition factions and I have no doubt at the time that Russian forces had inflitrated and were helping to bring it to a crisis. When they (the Georgians) took overt, strong military actions to put down the actions that provoked them...they walked right into a Putin Bear trap.

It has not been that long ago...and I have to believe the Ukrainians know this and will (hopefully) avoid the same trap.

It is intersting how they both occur around and right after the Olympics. Hard to belive that is necessarily coincidental. The fall of Putin's ally however has, I believe, been more swift, and was accomplished with far more Ukrianian citizen commitment and direct actions than Putin and his advisors would have thought...and so that has also thrown some significant iron into their works. How it will end up is still in the air...but short of some major mistakes, I think it can be worked out diplomatically.


Thank you Jeff. A couple more hypothetical questions just so that they don’t come up later in the thread (last ones I promise):

The European press has been consistently carrying stories that the Protester/Freedom Fighters/ Anarchists are supported, organized and encouraged by the EU and Secretary Nuland. Personally this sounds like another conspiracy story trying to take root with Anti EU and USA elements in the European press. What is this all about?

Yulia Tymoshenko who played a role in the Orange Revolution and was also convicted of embezzlement and abuse of power (in May 2010). Because of her the EU consequently shelved the proposed European Union Association Agreement and a free trade agreement with Ukraine. In early 2010 Tymoshenko announced in a televised speech that she believed the presidential election to have been rigged and did not recognize its results. Now in a 310 to 54 veto proof vote, by Parliament, she has been released and now she is back in with the people and may run for office again. All this smells bad. Could you dissect some of the misinformation and give us all a clear story?
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

The European press has been consistently carrying stories that the Protester/Freedom Fighters/ Anarchists are supported, organized and encouraged by the EU and Secretary Nuland. Personally this sounds like another conspiracy story trying to take root with Anti EU and USA elements in the European press. What is this all about?
I think you hit on the major answer to this question yourself.

Yulia Tymoshenko who played a role in the Orange Revolution and was also convicted of embezzlement and abuse of power (in May 2010). Because of her the EU consequently shelved the proposed European Union Association Agreement and a free trade agreement with Ukraine. In early 2010 Tymoshenko announced in a televised speech that she believed the presidential election to have been rigged and did not recognize its results. Now in a 310 to 54 veto proof vote, by Parliament, she has been released and now she is back in with the people and may run for office again. Could you dissect some of the misinformation and give us all a clear story?
This woman is smart, and she is very charismatic, and she is also very shrewd and I believe...can be very ruthless in the pursuit of her goals and ambitions. And emphasize the "her" and "ambitions" part of that very strongly.

I personally believe that the Ukrainian people would make a big mistake voting her into any position of significant authority or leadership again. I do not believe she has the best, or long term interests, of the Ukrainian Republic at heart. Maybe one time, early on she did...but I do not feel that is the case now.

But that is just my opinion from watching events during and since the Orange revolution.
 

matt

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Finally some sane thoughts on Ukraine from Turkey...

eng.islam-today.ru/news/turkey-blames-europe-in-provocations-against-russia-and-in-fomenting-war-in-ukraine/
Turkey played with Europe for a long time and I think they really know what they are talking about, because Europe wanted to put Turkey under and they failed because Turkey rejected to play by the rules Europe invented. And now Ukraine became a new victim of European politicians that want to destroy Ukrainian statehood and turn it into their submission. I think Europe already have plans to divide Ukraine and turn it into a new colony just like they wanted to do it with Turkey. Europe is responsible for the civil war and collapse in Ukraine and there can be no doubts.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Finally some sane thoughts on Ukraine from Turkey...

Turkey played with Europe for a long time and I think they really know what they are talking about, because Europe wanted to put Turkey under and they failed because Turkey rejected to play by the rules Europe invented.
MAtt, welcome to the SD Forum.

The European Union is a defined organization with its own charters, policies, etc. Of course they created these.

If Turkey did/does not want to be a member, that is their choice.

You are new to SD, Matt. Cut the abject Rhetoric. Read the forum Rules

And now Ukraine became a new victim of European politicians that want to destroy Ukrainian statehood and turn it into their submission.
Victim? Says who? You?

This is just pure propaganda.

Clearly a certain large segment of the Ukraine want to move towards the European Union. Another segment do not and want to remain in the Russian Federation sphere. THAT is what this is about and the people there in Ukraine or the ones who have to sort it out.

I think Europe already have plans to divide Ukraine and turn it into a new colony just like they wanted to do it with Turkey. Europe is responsible for the civil war and collapse in Ukraine and there can be no doubts.
Matt, these pronouncements, without a shred of evidence, are very close to trolling and flam baiting.

Europe is not responsible. They have their Union, and their money, and if people want to be a part, they have to follow the EUs charter and policies. The Ukrainians have to decide if they want to do that and apparently a whole lot of them do.

On the other side, there are also Ukrainian citizens who do not.

The former had severe issues with their President and so they protested. The Government used increasing force to stop those protests...and it turned ugly. The President had to leave and was constitutionally impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament.

That is where it is and the Ukrainian people are now going to have to come to terms with it.

That is what this is about. Both the Russians and the EU want to influence this...and that is clear.

But it is the Ukrainian people who are deciding this issue.

NO TROLLING, NO FLAME BAITING. AS I SAID. READ THE RULES.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Interesting Article in the
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regarding Russia placing troops on alert along its western border. Hopefully cooler head will prevail.

Seems as if Putin is trying to seen a clear message to the new Government in Kiev; pulling out the ambassador, securing military facilities in Crimea and now placing troops on alert. I am sure that some scandalous (left wing) periodicals (in Europe) will insinuate massing of tanks on the border, or that new government are neo-nazi's, to increase sales.
 

Jeff Head

General
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Yahoo/Reuters said:
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin ordered an urgent drill to test the combat readiness of his armed forces across western Russia on Wednesday, flexing Moscow's military muscle amid tension with the West over Ukraine.

Russia said the exercises were not linked to events in Ukraine, where the ouster of a president who turned his back on the European Union and sought closer ties with Moscow has raised worries in the West over possibility of military intervention.

Putin has ordered several such surprise drills in different Russian regions since he returned to the presidency in 2012, saying the military must be kept on its toes, but the crisis in the neighboring nation gave them added geopolitical resonance.

"In accordance with an order from the president of the Russian Federation, forces of the Western Military District were put on alert at 1400 (0500 ET) today," the Interfax news agency quoted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying.

Shoigu said the training drills were not linked to events in Ukraine, and Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov said they had been previously planned. He said they would involve about 150,000 military personnel.

The western district encompasses most of western Russia and borders Ukraine, which lies between NATO nations and Russia.

Forces must "be ready to bomb unfamiliar testing grounds" as part of the drill, Shoigu told a Defence Ministry meeting.

Putin has made no public comment on Ukraine since President Viktor Yanukovich was driven from power over the weekend. His ouster came after months of political turmoil that began when he spurned deals with the European Union and sought to improve ties with Russia.

The United States and European nations have warned Russia against military intervention in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that Putin has called a "brother nation" and wants to be part of a Eurasian Union he is building in the region.

Russian officials have said Moscow will not interfere in Ukraine, while accusing the West of doing so. Interfax cited the speaker of the upper parliament house, Valentina Matviyenko, as saying on Wednesday it would not use force.

But Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Russia's interests and its citizens in Ukraine were under threat, language reminiscent of statements justifying Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, when he was president.

Shoigu said the drill would be conducted in two stages, ending on March 3, and also involved the command centers of Russia's Air and Space Defence forces, paratroops and long-range aviation as well as some troops in central Russia.

In the two-day first stage, military units would be brought to "the highest degree of combat readiness" and would be deployed to testing areas on land and sea, Interfax quoted Shoigu as saying.

The second stage would include tactical exercises and involve warships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets, he said, and some warplanes would move to combat airfields.

Descriptions of the exercises did not mention the Black Sea Fleet, which is based in Sevastopol in Crimea. Tension over Ukraine's turmoil is high because of the fleet's presence and the region's large ethnic Russian population.

In separate comments, Shoigu said Russia was "carefully watching what is happening in Crimea" and was taking unspecified measures to ensure the security of the facilities and arsenals of the Black Sea Fleet, state-run RIA reported.

Shoigu said the drill would also test the counter-terrorism measures in place at military units. Russian officials have referred to some of the Ukrainian opposition forces whose protests pushed Yanukovich from power as "terrorists".

At the very least Putin is sending a message...and having his troops in a position to be ready if he want to use them That message is unmistakable and in direct responce to Obama's recent "warning" to Russia about not sending troops into the Ukraine in any way.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
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SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (AP) — Fistfights broke out between pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine's strategic Crimea region on Wednesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered major military exercises just across the border.

In Kiev, opposition leaders who took charge after pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych fled were working on forming a new government to chart a path forward for the country and its ailing economy. Parliament has delayed the announcement of the new administration, which was originally set for Tuesday, reflecting the political divisions among the various factions of the opposition.

When announcing Russia's military exercises, Shoigu didn't specifically mention the turmoil in Ukraine, which is bitterly divided between pro-European western regions and pro-Russian areas in the east and south.

Three months of protests forced Yanukovych to go into hiding over the weekend as his foes set up an interim government following violent clashes between protesters and police that left more than 80 people dead.

In Crimea's regional capital of Simferopol, about 20,000 Muslim Tatars who rallied in support of the interim government clashed with a smaller pro-Russian rally. One health official said at least 20 people were injured, while the local health ministry said one person died from an apparent heart attack.

They started to disperse after the speaker of the regional legislature announced it would postpone a crisis session, which many Tatars feared would have taken steps toward seceding from Ukraine.

"The threat of separatism has been eliminated," Refat Chubarov, the leader of the Tatar community in Crimea, told the crowd.

Crimean Tatars are a Turkic Muslim ethnic group who have lived in Crimea for centuries. They were brutally deported in 1944 by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, but returned after Ukraine's independence.

The tensions in Crimea — a peninsula in southern Ukraine that is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet — highlight the divisions that run through this country of 46 million, and underscore fears the country's mainly Russian-speaking east and south won't recognize the interim authorities' legitimacy.

According to the Russian defense minister, the military will be on high alert for two days as some troops deploy to shooting ranges. The actual maneuvers will start Friday and will last four days, he said. The exercise will involve ships of the Baltic and the Northern Fleets, and the air force.

The order came a day after a Russian lawmaker visiting Crimea said Moscow would protect the region's Russian-speaking residents, raising concerns that Russia might make a military move into Ukraine.

"We take it for granted that all nations respect the sovereignty and independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and this is a message that we have also conveyed to whom it may concern," NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said.

On Wednesday, Yanukovych's three predecessors as president issued a statement accusing Russia of "direct interference in the political life of Crimea."

"That scenario is impossible," said Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the upper chamber of Russia's parliament, known as the Federation Council. She is a close Putin ally and was born in western Ukraine.

"Russia has been stating and reiterating its stance that we have no right and cannot interfere in domestic affairs of a sovereign state," she said. "We are for Ukraine as a united state, and there should be no basis for separatist sentiments."

In Kiev, the capital, protesters who have demanded that the new government be close to the people, cut down a fence surrounding the Parliament building.

Ukraine's acting interior minister ordered the disbandment of a feared riot police force known as Berkut, which protesters blamed for violent attacks against peaceful demonstrators.

View galleryNew mayor of the city of Sevastopol Alexey Chaly, center, …
New mayor of the city of Sevastopol Alexey Chaly, center, speaks to a crowd during a rally in Sevast …
The force, whose name means "golden eagle," consisted of about 5,000 officers. It was unclear Wednesday whether its members would be dismissed or reassigned to other units.

Protesters took to the streets after Yanukovych's decision in November to reject an agreement that would strengthen ties with the EU and instead seek closer cooperation with Moscow.

Anti-Yanukovych protesters set up a camp on Kiev's Independence Square, known as the Maidan, demonstrating against corruption and human rights abuses and calling for the president's resignation.

Under an EU-mediated plan, Yanukovych and protest leaders agreed to form a new government and hold an early election, but Parliament later voted to remove him from the presidency. The protesters took control of Kiev and seized the president's office as Yanukovych fled the capital. His whereabouts are unknown.

In Lviv, a major city in the European-leaning west of Ukraine, leading cultural figures tried to defuse the tensions between the Russian-speaking east and the Ukrainian-speaking west, calling on residents to speak only Russian on Wednesday in a symbolic show of solidarity.

The call appeared to have had some effect.

"You can really hear a lot of Russian spoken on the streets of Lviv today," said Konstantin Beglov, one of the campaign's promoters, "although it often leads to funny situations because Lviv residents hardly ever speak Russian."

It looks like there is a struggle at this tender time to control the Crimea behind the curtains.
 
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