Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!
Very interesting article in the Daily Telegraph from London regarding “possible” intervention from Russia and that the Crimea “could” be a flash point for that intervention. The article also mentions that a majority of Russians viewed Crimea as a Russian territory, a far higher proportion than felt a claim on Chechnya.
Interesting that if Nikita Khrushchev had not transferred the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, it would have remained a permanent, deep-water port for the Russian Black Sea fleet. Whereas Russia now has to pay a lease which is up for renewal in 2042.
Jeff ... what is your interpretation of the article?
A friend emailed me last night and indicated that there were rumors about an email that one of the Ukrainian officials was circulating that the Russians were sending troops to the Crimea on Russian landing ships. When you actually drilled into it it mentioned a landing craft that is already stationed at Sevestapol that has 200 Russian special forces on it.
I let him know that this was not unusual, that the ship and personnel were regullarly stationed there. It would require a much larger contingent if the Russians were "moving" on the Crimea.
Now, I know that the Crimea is very near and dear to many Russians hearts. It is also a strategic port for them on the Black Sea giving them access to the Med. 2042 is a long ways off. It is still 28 years from now at which point I will most probably be beyond any earthly concern. Lots can happen between now and then...but, IMHO, barring a fairly significant realignment in things, I do not believe that Russia will give up their base at Sevastapol now, or in the forseeable future.
Yes, the Crimea could be a flashpoint. The Russian Federation parliament voted...I believe in 1992 or 1993...to indicate their sense that the transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954 was not done appropriately and therefore took issue with it. That's another 22 yearsago and nothing was done about it.
For 60 years the Crimea has been a part of the Ukraine. But is is an autonomus region and so there is wiggle room if things get worse.
Does the Russian ehtnic population in the Crimea want to be a part of Russia again? Are they committed to it and actively seeking it? Is the rest of Ukkraine prepared to give it up? Is the rest of Ukraine willing to fight to keep it...and if they did, how many citizens in the Crimea would support the Ukraine versus Russia?
What would the EU's reaction be if any attempt to take it by force occurred? What would be the US response?
All of this will figure heavily into what the Russians plan on doing.
Putin is a strong Russian leader. When he, in essence, "liberated," or broke off the two provinces of Georgia, he was met by stiff resistance from the international community, particularly from the US and EU. I believe that stiff resistance kept Georgia from being completely taken back by Russia at the time.
Could that happen in the Ukraine with the Crimea? It is possible. It just depends on what actions Putin takes and what he bases them on, and how the people in the Crimea and in the Ukraine feel about it. It also depends on the US response. Right now the US President is viewed as weak and ineffectual...and any threats by the US may be taken fairly lightly.
Remember, Obama himself, who thought he was off camera at the time, told Putin in an meeting before the 2012 election that he would be in a poisition to be a lot more flexible with Russia and Putin if he won the elections and did not have to worry about re-election again. I am sure Putin has not forgotten that...and views Obama as weak in this regard.
Time is going to tell, But the longer it goes without a major incident, and as Ukraine gets back to some sense of normallcy and holds its elections...the chances of such an escalation will decrease.
or don’t agree with. Many of us have very specific local knowledge of places or topics. But for the moderators this is their passion.