2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

Putin smiles at a German visitor

President Vladimir Putin opened his hand just a wee bit while US President Barack Obama was still in Europe warning of “consequences” in the nature of more sanctions against Russia unless it ‘deescalated’ in Ukraine. Putin received the CEO of Siemens Joe Kaesar on Wednesday.

The Kremlin readout has a picture of Putin wearing a slightly amused look, as he heard Kaesar saying, “Siemens will continue its work to localize production here and help build up industry in Russia.”
Kaesar also said he just had a meeting with the head of Russia’s energy leviathan Gazprom and they “agreed to continue the long-term cooperation between Siemens and Gazprom.”
This friendly exchange took place on a day Obama spoke about the prospects for US energy exports helping Europe to reduce its heavy dependence on Russian supplies.
The meeting between Putin and Kaesar underscores that any attempt by the US to force Russia to back down via the sanctions route critically depends on Germany’s cooperation.
The US has very little trade going with Russia — just 1 percent of its total trade — and has no dependence on Russian energy supplies.
On the contrary, Germany’s trade with Russia, which stood at $107 billion last year, accounts for a hefty 3 percent of its total foreign trade. And Germany also meets one-third of its oil and gas needs from Russia.
Der Spiegel had an insightful report recently on the German-Russian economic nexus. Six thousand German companies operate in Russia which have invested over $25 billion. In an economic war with Russia leading to disruption in energy supplies, upwards of 300000 jobs could be at risk in Germany.
Unsurprisingly, two-thirds of Germans reject sanctions against Russia relating to the Crimean crisis. These are sobering facts on the ground (here).
Of course, it is unthinkable that Russia will cut off energy exports to Europe, which account for something like half of its annual income. On the other hand, it remains to be seen how far realistic are the expectations that the US and Canada can replace Russia in Europe’s energy market in a conceivable future.
The noted author and academic and expert on the geopolitics of energy security Michael Klare calls it “petro-machismo”. He lucidly explains that the notion is misplaced that American foreign policy could have a “fresh burst of geopolitical vigor” thanks to the leeway available through the US’ shale gas and Canada’s bitumen sands.
Professor Klare estimates that the former US national security advisor Tom Donilon had fallen for this vacuous notion of the US’s ‘energy independence’ and apparently got Obama to embrace it as well, but it actually jars on the president’s own public “discourse on new collaborative modes of international behavior”. (here).
Such being the ground realities, despite the brave face Obama put on it, the US faces a really uphill task in motivating the European allies — especially, ‘Old Europeans’ like the Germans — to take to the barricades.
Equally, it is also inconceivable that Russia is in a mood to escalate the crisis and resort to more “land grabs”, as the cold warriors in the US estimate.
Russia cannot remain unscathed by Obama’s ’smart sanctions’. In an estimate on Wednesday, the World Bank painted a grim picture of the Russian economy, which is already under weather, further suffering if the Crimea crisis deepens. It says that in a worst-case scenario Russia’s GDP may shrink by 1.8 percent this year. (here).
There are other worrying signs too — investors have pulled out as much as $70 billion from Russia’s economy in the few weeks since the Crimea crisis began and the head of Russia’s state-owned Sberbank, German Graf, has been quoted as saying, “If capital outflows reach $100 billion, the economic growth will likely hit zero.”
All in all, therefore, the spectre of hard times ahead could only incentivize thoughtful leaders in both Europe and Russia to ‘deescalate’ the crisis — despite, arguably, the US’s unspoken interest in a “permanent low intensity rivalry” with Russia developing in the heart of Europe, which would cement the US’s transatlantic leadership and give new verve to the NATO.
Putin seems to be acutely conscious of the need to ‘deescalate’ as well, as his meeting with the Siemens CEO Joe Kaesar in the Kremlin amidst the distant sound of war drums seems to suggest.

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Fox News said:

New U.S. intelligence assessments say there are more indications than ever that Russia could invade eastern Ukraine, as congressional lawmakers reacted with alarm to Vladimir Putin's rapidly expanding military buildup along the border.

"The thinking in the U.S. government is that the likelihood of a major Russian incursion into Ukraine has increased," a senior U.S. official told Fox News.

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The new thinking is based mostly off analysis of public information, such as heightened rhetoric from Putin and his claims that Russian-speaking people in Ukraine face "brutality." He is building a public case for more military action, according to senior U.S. officials.

Also significant is the large buildup of Russian forces along the border with Ukraine.

U.S. Defense officials say the numbers of troops far exceeds the amount needed for a training exercise. And the fact that there is no real evidence any large-scale exercises have occurred, and that none of the troops have returned to their bases, is also concerning to U.S. observers.

Some have estimated the troop strength to be at about 30,000 -- Rep. Michael Turner, R-Ohio, though, claimed Thursday that the number could be as high as 80,000. It is believed that an additional 50,000 troops may have flooded the region in the last few days.

These indications are contributing to a growing sense of alarm in Washington.

"I can't tell you how awful this is," said one congressional source who spoke to Fox News on the condition of anonymity.

In Rome as part of an overseas tour, President Obama stressed the need for the U.S. to support Ukraine. The Senate, shortly after noon, approved the first major Ukraine aid bill -- one which also includes sanctions against Russia. The House approved a different version, but each would provide $1 billion to Ukraine, and lawmakers are trying to iron out the differences before the end of the day.

The massive troop buildup along the border is reminiscent of Russia's military movements prior to the conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia, one official said.

A Defense official said if Russia were to invade the mainland, Ukraine would attempt to defend itself and this would be "far from a bloodless event as we saw in Crimea." However, Ukraine would be outmatched, this official said.

The latest assessment offers a consensus view of intelligence agencies and the U.S. military. The assessment also takes into account that Putin likely has the desire to create a land bridge into Crimea.

Putin may also believe that if he is to pay a price with the international community in the form of sanctions, he is better off getting everything out of this incursion that he wants, one senior U.S. official told Fox News.

Amid the warnings, the commander of NATO forces in Europe briefed lawmakers Thursday on the threat posed by Russian forces.

Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, gave a classified briefing Thursday morning to members of the House Armed Services Committee. He plans to give several briefings, including on the Senate side.

"We're all concerned about what Russia is doing on the border of Ukraine," Breedlove said after the first briefing. "The size of the forces have a message that are not congruous with respecting the borders."

After the briefing, one committee aide said: "Nothing that happened in the briefing calmed the sense of alarm expressed by members yesterday."

Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday strongly urged President Obama to take a firmer stance against Russia.

The letter, by eight congressmen, comes after U.S. and European security agencies estimated that Russia has deployed military and militia units totaling more than 30,000 people along its border with eastern Ukraine, Reuters reported.

The letter's authors said they are "gravely concerned" about the reported troop buildup, and urged the Obama administration to work with NATO allies to share intelligence with the Ukrainian government so they can prepare for any further incursions by Russia.

"There is deep apprehension that Moscow may invade eastern and southern Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria, and also seek land grabs in the Baltics," they wrote.

In a statement accompanying the letter's release, committee chairman Rep. Buck McKeon, R-Calif., said Russia's "war on Ukraine has already started."

"It is time to stop speculating about possibility, and start dealing with reality," McKeon said. "Continued inaction by the President in the face of Mr. Putin's invasion will make further Russian aggression more -- not less -- likely. Any show of resolve from the White House will have my full support."

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Western governments see continuing Russian buildup on Ukraine border
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Wed, Mar 26 2014
By Mark Hosenball
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. and European security agencies estimate Russia has deployed military and militia units totaling more than 30,000 people along its border with eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. and European sources familiar with official reporting.
The current estimates represent what officials on both sides of the Atlantic describe as a continuing influx of Russian forces along the Ukraine frontier, the sources said.
The 30,000 figure represents a significant increase from a figure of 20,000 Russian troops along the border that was widely reported in U.S. and European media last week.
But U.S. and European security sources noted that these estimates are imprecise. Some estimates put current troop levels as high as 35,000 while others still suggest a level of 25,000, the sources said.
However, the sources said that U.S. and European government experts believe that there has been, and continues to be, a steady and noticeable buildup in the total number of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border, though some military units have rotated in or out of the area.
U.S. and European security sources said that the Russian force deployed along the Ukraine border includes regular military including infantry and armored units and some air support.
Also deployed are militia or special forces units comprised of Russian fighters, wearing uniforms lacking insignia or other identifying markings, similar to the first Russian forces to move into Crimea during Russia's recent military takeover there.
U.S. officials said that what Russian President Vladimir Putin actually plans to do with his forces deployed on the Ukraine border is unknown. Some officials say intelligence information available to policymakers regarding what Putin is thinking, and what he is saying to his advisors and military commanders, is fragmentary to non-existent.
But the portents are potentially ominous. "No one's ruling out the possibility of additional Russian military aggression," one U.S. official said.
U.S. President Barack Obama was non-committal when asked about the 30,000 Russian troops estimate at a news conference in The Hague on Tuesday.
"With respect to the Russian troops that are along the border of Ukraine at the moment, right now they are on Russian soil. And if they stay on Russian soil, we oppose what appears to be an effort of intimidation, but Russia has a right, legally, to have its troops on its own soil. I don't think it's a done deal. And I think that Russia's still making a series of calculations," Obama said.
(Editing by Alistair Bell and Cynthia Osterman)

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24 March 2014 Last updated at 10:47 ET
Russian manoeuvres keep the West guessing
By Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent
The concern of Nato's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe that Russian forces are capable of moving swiftly into eastern Ukraine underscores the uncertain course of this crisis, with Nato and Western diplomats unable to predict Russian intentions.
Nato has been watching Russian exercises and deployments since the outset of the crisis. US sources indicate that some 20,000 Russian troops have been exercising on Ukraine's eastern borders.
Nato commander Gen Philip Breedlove believes that these are "of a sufficient size to pose a potential threat" - not just, he says, to Ukraine but potentially to Moldova as well.
Moldova is a small republic on Ukraine's south-western border where a small pro-Russian enclave - Trans-Dniester - has broken away.
There are a little over 1,000 Russian troops there, ostensibly as a peacekeeping force. It is not clear quite what Gen Breedlove meant, but it seems unlikely that he expected Russian forces to advance across the whole of Ukraine to Moldova.
His point seems to be that there are now sufficient grounds for concern that Russia may seek to exploit this crisis by consolidating its position in other territories that claim support in one way or another for Moscow.
Military men have to look at both capabilities and intentions. The Western military view is that, primed by recent exercises, Russia has gathered sufficient forces at least for an initial thrust into eastern Ukraine.
For now, Russian spokesmen in Moscow insist that this is not their intention. But they said much the same a few weeks ago about Crimea.
From the outset of this drama, it has been especially problematic to determine Russia's game-plan.
At the strategic political level, it seems that the West has greatly underestimated or failed to understand fully the great sense of national humiliation felt by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his circle at the collapse of the Soviet Union and the apparent humbling of Russia.
His frustration at watching more than a decade of Western military involvements overseas was frequently ignored.
Reports of infiltration
The emphasis in the Western narrative focusing on engagement with Russia - however hesitant - and Moscow's recent diplomacy in Syria and Iran - for all its problems - seemed to an extent to confirm those who believed that Russia wanted to play a constructive role.
But President Putin's Crimea adventure has put that all in the balance.
Western diplomats I have spoken to believe that the episode was not explicitly pre-planned, but that the Kremlin moved swiftly to capitalise on a fast-changing situation on the ground - a situation, it must be said, that Moscow sought to influence by stoking up pro-Russian sentiment.
This kind of internal destabilisation is continuing. Western diplomats place some credence in Ukrainian interior ministry reports that hundreds of people have been stopped from crossing into Ukraine from Russia each week.
Some of them are said to be armed, some with equipment like compasses, and some seem to be former - or maybe even current - members of Russian special-forces units.
Such infiltration, along with the springing up of pro-Russian militias, leaves the initiative very much in Mr Putin's hands.
As of today, he may indeed have no desire to move into eastern Ukraine. But what if pro-Russian elements confront Ukrainian security forces?
What if shots are exchanged and lives lost? Will Putin then simply be reacting to the pace of events on the ground? Or will Moscow actually have helped to orchestrate those events in the first place?

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Ukraine wins IMF lifeline as Russia faces growth slump
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2:57pm EDT
By Natalia Zinets and Elizabeth Piper
KIEV/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ukraine won a $27-billion international financial lifeline on Thursday, rushed through in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea, while Moscow's economy minister acknowledged that his country's growth would slow dramatically as funds flee abroad.
The International Monetary Fund announced a $14-18 billion standby credit for Kiev in return for tough economic reforms that will unlock further aid from the European Union, the United States and other lenders over two years, effectively pulling Kiev closer to Europe.
Raising the political temperature, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, released from jail last month after her arch-rival Viktor Yanukovich fled from power in Kiev, announced she would run again for president in an election on May 25.
The declaration by the flamboyant Tymoshenko, 53, set up a contest with boxer-turned-politician Vitaly Klitschko, who has also announced his candidacy, and other figures who have emerged to contend for top posts after four months of political turmoil.
Tymoshenko, who appeared without the blond peasant hair braid that has been her trademark for years, pledged to fight "lawlessness" and said she hoped to recover Crimea. But she remains behind her two rivals in opinion polls.
The IMF deal was a boost for the pro-Western government that replaced the Russian-backed Yanukovich last month, prompting Moscow to seize Crimea.
"The financial support from the broader international community that the program will unlock amounts to $27 billion over the next two years," an IMF statement said.
The IMF said it did not see a need to restructure Ukraine's debts for now.
The Ukrainian parliament later backed a law accepting the austerity measures demanded by the IMF, after initially voting against it.
"The decision we have to take is extremely unpopular," far-right nationalist leader Oleh Tyaynibok told parliament. "But if this decision is not taken then (President Vladimir) Putin in Moscow will applaud that the coalition has been split."
FINANCIAL AID
President Barack Obama said the IMF agreement was a major step forward that would help stabilize Ukraine's economy.
China, which failed to back its ally Russia in a vote on Crimea at the United Nations this month, said it would play a "constructive role" on aid for Ukraine, but stopped short of saying whether it would participate directly.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development could direct up to a billion euros a year into Ukraine over the next few years, while the EU could provide 850 million euros within three months.
The Ukraine crisis has triggered the most serious East-West confrontation since the end of the Cold War a quarter of a century ago, deepening the slump in Ukraine's economy, centered on coal and steel production, gas transit and grain exports.
Without IMF-mandated austerity measures, the economy could contract by up to 10 percent this year, Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told parliament, explaining why his government had bowed to the Fund's conditions.
"Ukraine is on the edge of economic and financial bankruptcy," he said.
Kiev opened the way for the IMF deal by announcing on Wednesday a radical 50-percent hike in the price of domestic gas from May 1 and promising to phase out remaining energy subsidies by 2016, an unpopular step Yanukovich had refused to take.
The prime minister, who took on the job a month ago saying his government was on a "kamikaze" mission to take painful decisions, said the price of Russian gas on which the nation depends may rise 79 percent - a recipe for popular discontent.
The IMF statement said a key element of the program would focus on cleaning up Ukraine's opaque energy giant Naftogaz, which imports gas from Russia's Gazprom. Naftogaz's chief executive was arrested last week in a corruption probe.
The IMF also wants the national currency, the hryvnia, to float more freely against the dollar, and a more stringent fiscal policy.
ECONOMIC PRICE
The international rescue for Ukraine was in sharp contrast to Western measures to isolate Russia diplomatically and charge it an economic price for the annexation of Crimea, home to Moscow's Black Sea fleet and an ethnic Russian majority.
Further isolating Moscow in the eyes of the West, the United Nations General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution declaring invalid Crimea's Moscow-backed referendum earlier this month on seceding from Ukraine.
In Washington, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives easily passed bills to provide aid to Ukraine, back a $1 billion loan guarantee for the Kiev government and impose sanctions on Russians and Ukrainians over Russia's annexation of Crimea.
The United States also announced a ban on licenses for the export of defense items and services to Russia.
Targeted U.S. and EU visa bans and asset freezes against senior Russian and Crimean officials, with the threat of tougher economic sanctions to come if Putin goes any further, have accelerated capital flight from Russia.
Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said on Thursday capital outflow could be around $100 billion this year, and would slow economic growth to well below earlier forecasts of 2.5 percent this year.
"If we assume in the first quarter capital outflow was $60 billion ... then (it) will reach around $100 billion for the whole year," Ulyukayev told an investment conference.
"Under this scenario, we estimate that economic growth will slow down to 0.6 percent."
The World Bank gave a gloomier forecast, saying that in a high-risk scenario of persistent tension over Ukraine, Russia's economy could shrink by up to 1.8 percent, even without Western trade sanctions.
Ukraine's dollar bonds jumped on news of the IMF bailout and the cost of insuring its debt against default fell sharply. Russian stocks fell on economic pessimism there.
In a sign of growing concern about the impact of potential sanctions, the head of Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, said nuclear industry contracts with other countries could be affected by Western measures.
After Visa and MasterCard stopped providing services for payment transactions for clients at Bank Rossiya, which is under U.S. sanctions, Putin said on Thursday that Russia would develop its own credit card system.
(Additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kiev and Lidia Kelly and Jason Bush in Moscow; Writing by Paul Taylor and Giles Elgood; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

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27 March 2014 Last updated at 14:34 ET
Ukraine: UN condemns Crimea vote as IMF and US back loans
The UN General Assembly has approved a resolution describing the Moscow-backed referendum that led to Russia's annexation of Crimea as illegal.
It comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to a loan deal with Ukraine worth $14-18bn.
The US Congress also passed legislation on Thursday backing a $1bn loan guarantee for Ukraine.
Tensions are high between Russia and the West after pro-Russian troops annexed Ukraine's southern peninsula.
The West has widely condemned the move, with US President Barack Obama warning on Wednesday of "deeper" EU and US sanctions against Russia if it carried out further incursions in Ukraine.
Non-binding
One hundred countries voted in favour of approving a UN General Assembly resolution declaring the Crimean referendum on 16 March illegal and affirming Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Eleven nations voted against, with 58 abstentions.
"This support has come from all corners of the world which shows that this (is) not only a regional matter but a global one,'' Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia told reporters after the vote.
Given that the resolution was non-binding, the vote was largely symbolic, says the BBC's Nick Bryant in New York.
But Ukraine hopes the resolution will act as a deterrent and dissuade Moscow from making further incursions into its territory, he adds.
President Obama said the IMF announcement, which would unlock a further $10bn in loans for Ukraine, was a "major step forward" to help stabilise the country's economy and meet the long-term needs of its people.
Speaking after talks with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in Rome on Thursday, Mr Obama said it was a "concrete signal" that the world stood united with Ukraine at a difficult time.
A bill was also passed in the US Senate and House of Representatives on Thursday providing $1bn in loan guarantees aimed at stabilising Ukraine's economy. The measure still needs to be signed into law by President Obama.
Ukraine's interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk had earlier told parliament the country was on the ""on the edge of economic and financial bankruptcy".
'Door of diplomacy'
Also on Thursday, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said she planned to run for president of Ukraine in the elections expected to take place on 25 May.
Ms Tymoshenko, who has already served twice as prime minister and ran for president in 2010, said she would stand as "a candidate for Ukrainian unity".
She was released after serving three years in jail on corruption charges, following the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February.
More than 100 people were killed during protests which overthrew pro-Kremlin President Yanukovych in February.
They followed months of street protests sparked by Mr Yanukovych's decision to reject a planned EU trade deal in favour of closer ties with Moscow.
Since then, Russia has annexed the Crimean peninsula, which last week voted to become part of the Russian federation.
Mr Obama said on Thursday that the US hoped Russia would "walk through the door of diplomacy" and resolve the issue in a peaceful way.
In other Ukraine developments:
Six Ukrainian military officers detained by Russian troops in Crimea have been released, but five remain in custody; those released include Col Yuli Mamchur, the commander of Belbek base which fell on Saturday
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk says the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas will increase by 79% from 1 April
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces plans for a new domestic payment system to circumvent financial sanctions imposed by Western nations over the Crimea issue.

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delft said:

Of course we get this news from a usually unreliable source.

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Jeff Head said:

Troop buildups by Russia along Ukraine's eastern frontier continue. As many as 80,000 may be in a position to jump off with little or no warning.

US military analysts now believe these troops are not involved in any exercises (no duh!) and that there is a growing likelihood that Russia will Crimeaize more southeastern Ukrainian provinces...and perhaps even go futher.

Time will tell...buit it is clear that Putin is ignoring...and even disdaining...the types of sanctions the US is institutiing, and its ablility to inact any sacntions that will materially impact Russia's plans and goals in the region.

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delft said:

Of course we get this news from a usually unreliable source.

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