2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

TerraN_EmpirE · Mar 26, 2014

Yet they did resist, it might not have been the battle to the death. But they occupied there bases until they could be occupied no more.
they did what the Philippines have been doing to the Chinese in the Second Thomas Shoal. A sit in. If you can't fight them annoy them. Make them waste there time watching you. I have to say the Chinese coast guard has way more patience. They knew militarily they could not win and a battle to the death was pointless but they could make a point. They made the Russians come and force them out. That is a form of resistance.
yes there were defections, and yes they could have taken the bus. But instead they made the Russians and the Pro-Russian militia spend time and money evicting them and in the process they got the press to watch, raising awareness for there cause.
they obeyed there orders and held on until they were overwhelmed. They resisted, they just did not fight till the death and start a war that some wanted.

shen · Mar 26, 2014

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reading the comments about this story on a Indian website, it is clear where the Indian people stand on the issue.

Jeff Head · Mar 26, 2014

solarz said:
You're missing the point. The fact that the Ukrainian garrison in the Crimea was either unable or unwilling to defend the sovereignty of their nation is a pretty strong indication of the lack of legitimacy of the current Ukrainian administration.

Actually, it is not.

If they were ordered to defend and they did not, you might draw that conclusion.

But all accounts indicate that they were not ordered to open fire on the Russians or their supporters at all, so in following those orders, they actually indicate the opposite of your assertion.

I believe it is most likely that they were given ROEs that purposefully avoided any live fire incidient which could then have been used by the Russians as a pretext to actually initiate hostilities and spread them.

Jeff Head · Mar 26, 2014

shen said:
reading the comments about this story on a Indian website, it is clear where the Indian people stand on the issue.

The Indians clearly lean towards being verbally, and almost diplomatically, supportive of the Russians.

And understandably so since they still get the vast majority of their weapons from Russia and have a long history of dealing with them. In addition, the way the Obama administration absolutley embarassed itself over the one Indian diplomat in New York has left a sour taste in the mouths of most Indians.

It is clear, despite what Obama may say to try and bolter his hand regarding "sanctions," that he does not have universal international support.

China has not come out strongly on either side, but what they have said makes it clear (IMHO) that they will not seriously contest Russias actions in the Crimea. There are Carribean and South American nations who are not at all toeing the Obama Admninistration line.

Clearly India does not toe that line.

Iran clearly does not, Afghanistan, in a major embarassment to Obama, did not. There are others.

Even the Eurpeans, whom Obama wants to stand with, are very tepid about being overly contentious with Russia due to the energy situation. Short of Putin going overboard for a lot more of Ukraine or other nations, I do not expect much more to come of it. IMHO, Obama himself, though not saying so directly, has indicated that he has done all he is going to do about Crimea...and what he has done has not altered or disuaded Putin in the least. Obama has effectively conceded Crimea and is busy now talking about his "next," Red Line.

Problem is, he has shown that his Red Lines are pretty meaningless and everyone knows it.

I expect Putin may act on one or two more southeastern Ukrainian provinces if he really wants to push Onbama's buttons and cause Obama to lay out more "red Lines." Or he may stop with what he has.

But, in any case, at this point, I do not expect that the non-ethnic Russian portions of the Urkaine will be invaded unless someone makes a very critical mistake.

Time will tell.

solarz · Mar 26, 2014

Jeff Head said:
Actually, it is not.

If they were ordered to defend and they did not, you might draw that conclusion.

But all accounts indicate that they were not ordered to open fire on the Russians or their supporters at all, so in following those orders, they actually indicate the opposite of your assertion.

I believe it is most likely that they were given ROEs that purposefully avoided any live fire incidient which could then have been used by the Russians as a pretext to actually initiate hostilities and spread them.

And what do we usually call governments who order their military to avoid engaging foreign soldiers who've just entered your country uninvited?

Kiev might have made the decision to write-off Crimea to prevent an even worse Russian invasion. That decision might even be right in the grand scheme of things, but I doubt it sat well with the Ukrainian troops actually stationed in Crimea.

If you think that soldiers refusing to obey orders to resist the Russian invasion would have undermined the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, then what conclusions would you draw when the vast majority of them decide to either desert or defect?

Jeff Head · Mar 26, 2014

solarz said:
And what do we usually call governments who order their military to avoid engaging foreign soldiers who've just entered your country uninvited?

Depends entriely on the circumstances Solarz. In this case I would call them wise.

solarz said:
Kiev might have made the decision to write-off Crimea to prevent an even worse Russian invasion. That decision might even be right in the grand scheme of things, but I doubt it sat well with the Ukrainian troops actually stationed in Crimea.

Soldeirs in almost all free republics take an oath to their constitution and to obey lawful orders under that constitution. If they obeyed them, in all likelihood they viewed them as lawful. We already know that there were soldiers of Ukraine in the Crimea who welcomed the Russians. We also know, from the brave march of the soldiers at the one airbase, that there were others who did not. In such an environment, to order an attack against a far superior force, particularly after they saw a virtual replay of this in 2008 in Georgia, would have resulted in:

1) Russia using it as a pretect to open up a general conflict against Ukraine which they could not have restrined or defeated.

2) Severe dissension in the ranks in the Crimea and a toal loss of unit intergity, probably down to some of the very smmall units. Companies and platoons. All of which would have led to a disasterous defeat.

The leaders in the Ukraine, both military and political recognized this and did the best thing for the long term security of their country...which is exactly what they are supposed to do.

Bravado sounds good...but it is rarely a good thing in any major engagment, particularly at the command levels.

solarz said:
If you think that soldiers refusing to obey orders to resist the Russian invasion would have undermined the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, then what conclusions would you draw when the vast majority of them decide to either desert or defect?

The vast majority have not defected or deserted, Solarz. A large percentage in the Crimea area did. Knowing this, and knowing the things I mentioned above, the Ukraine leadership took the measures it had to for survival.

It's like a high ranking general ordering a retreat when everyone is anxious to keep fighting. Surviving to fight another day does more for your country in such circumstances than being annihilated fighing in place.

SampanViking · Mar 26, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
As of yet Sampan, Ukraine Proper is still intact.
There are nine provinces of Ukraine that were taken by Yanokovich in the 2010 election, not counting Crimea, those same nine not counting Crimea are also more then half Russian Speakers and sit closest to the boarder with Russia.
The Crimean Peninsula may have been part of the Ukraine since it's independence form the USSR in the 90's but for over 300 years it was Russian. It became part of Ukraine when the USSR First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev, granted it
Khrushchev despite claims to the contrary was Russian by birth but to paraphrase a American political maverick " He could see the Ukraine from his back yard."
The Question is will Putin push for more and part of that is Transnistria as if Russia Anexes those they would have to cross Ukraine Proper, entering the Western portion of Ukraine and having to deal with the 15 Western Provences who primaraly consider themselves European, voted for Yulia Tymoshenko in the 2010 Election, Do not speak Russian primarily and for who the Russian Deal was a no go.

Some are Arguing that the Action in Crimea was in it's self a Concession, Putin Ripping off a leg of the Ukraine to feed the Hawks in his own cabinet who have been disgusted by the Current state of Russia in the world.
The reliance of the EU on Russian Fuel and the depletion of NATO to feed the Peace Dividend and the dependence on Russia for manned Space, having created a opening He and his can use to get what they want, but those are Dynamics that could shift With the North American Fracking revolution brewing in the US Canada and now Mexico and the three having more fuel reserves then any other Fuel party. The Fuel blood line for the EU. With the Annexation there are bound to be those who feel that the NATO sword may need sharpening which could cause a political shift away form the The Peace dividend. And the US is moving forward with Commercial Crew if successful that would end the Russian/Chinese Monopoly of manned space foolishly granted with the retirement of the Shuttle.

Actually to reach Trans-Denistra Russian forces would not need to enter Pro Western areas as it links to the Odessa region along the South Coast. If Russia were to occupy the nine regions you mention, Russia would have a solid land bridge all the way to Trans-Denistra.

But does Putin need to do so to get what he wants? I seriously doubt it now. He has proved he can just walk in and take what he wants. Putin is not a street brawler but an Intelligence Man with a black belt in Judo and who recognises that his diplomats are his real elite troops.

I can see a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine going something like this.

R Our Military is at your border, we can cross any time we want and we can take any part of your country that we want and your Military will do nothing to stop us. You however can agree to all of our demands in full and we will not invade, we will allow your regime to survive and we may even restore preferential rates for your oil and gas supply.

U What are your demands?

R That you recognise the Crimea as sovereign Russian Territory, that you do not oppose de jure Full Autonomy in the Russian speaking regions and create no obstacles to them making their own external trade arrangements, separate from any the you agree for your none Russian speaking regions. That you do not join NATO or allow any NATO facility onto any Ukrainian territory. That you agree publicly that these demands are fair and that you call for the end of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

U Why should we agree to this, its surrender by any other name and gives you everything you want without any penalty. Why should we not say that if you want these things that you will only get them by military force and invasion and then our western friends will impose their full sanctions and you will then have to pay the full price?

R We can do that, we can invade, we can occupy your country, maybe part of it, maybe all of it. Yes your new friends will sanction us, maybe heavily, we will sanction them, just as heavily. We will both feel better even if we are both much poorer for it, but tell me,..... how does this help YOU? What good does these sanctions do for YOU? We will still occupy your country, we will still be Russia and we will still be alive, you however, you will probably be dead, or in prison in Russia and wishing you were dead. We will be very angry if we have to come and take what we demand that you give us and any price we have to pay, we will pass on to you with interest, So I ask you again, what good does this do for YOU?
Give us what we want, keep your lives, keep your country and keep in government........

Dolcevita · Mar 26, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
Yet they did resist, it might not have been the battle to the death. But they occupied there bases until they could be occupied no more.
they did what the Philippines have been doing to the Chinese in the Second Thomas Shoal. A sit in. If you can't fight them annoy them. Make them waste there time watching you. .

The Philippines is serving America's geopolitical interest by wasting Chinese time. Revealing this is how Americans see this. That's okay. The Chinese are patient and guess who unwittingly is suffering the consequences.

TerraN_EmpirE · Mar 26, 2014

D, they are serving there own, they claim the territory. Really what could the US gain by boring the PRC coast guard to tears.... On second thought don't answer that its OT and likely to insult both the Philippines and US (even more.)

my point is they found a middle ground, obeyed there orders and still found a peaceful solution. This is the long game.

Dolcevita · Mar 26, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
D, they are serving there own, they claim the territory. Really what could the US gain by boring the PRC coast guard to tears.... On second thought don't answer that its OT and likely to insult both the Philippines and US (even more.)

my point is they found a middle ground, obeyed there orders and still found a peaceful solution. This is the long game.

Funny. What is Aquino's long game?

2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

shen

Senior Member

Jeff Head

General

Jeff Head

General

solarz

Brigadier

Jeff Head

General

SampanViking

The Capitalist

Dolcevita

Major

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

Dolcevita

Major