2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

wowa97 · Mar 20, 2014

solarz said:
One question I haven't heard asked, and which was reminded to me by delft's link, is: what are the consequences of trying to sanction one of the biggest players in global politics?

Does the US no longer need Russian cooperation with regards to Syria, Iran and North Korea? What happens to their strategy of trying to play China and Russia against each other?

It seems to me that if the US were to push Russia too hard on Ukraine, they would lose big in other, more vital, areas of strategic interests.

And that, of course, is the real reason why you don't encroach on another power's core interests.

How about the International Space Station?

SampanViking · Mar 20, 2014

solarz said:
One question I haven't heard asked, and which was reminded to me by delft's link, is: what are the consequences of trying to sanction one of the biggest players in global politics?

Does the US no longer need Russian cooperation with regards to Syria, Iran and North Korea? What happens to their strategy of trying to play China and Russia against each other?

It seems to me that if the US were to push Russia too hard on Ukraine, they would lose big in other, more vital, areas of strategic interests.

And that, of course, is the real reason why you don't encroach on another power's core interests.

You are right to ask the question Solarz and I would say that the preparedness of the West to undertake such obvious risk gives an insight to what exactly is at stake in all this.

If The West has succeeded in inducting the Ukraine including Crimea into the EU and NATO, had succeeded in evicting the Russian Navy, taken over the facilities and turned the Black Sea into a NATO lake it would have achieved two very substantial objectives.

1) Remove the ability of Russia to project power beyond its periphery and lose its ability to support friends like Syria and Iran.

2) Suffer such a loss of national pride and confidence that the Russian state would risk face an existential threat from it.

It was a major and serious play and it is the kind of play that you do not get wrong because it is very difficult to go back from it.

So on the one hand, the West; you would suppose, would be best served by realising that the moment has passed and it did not get what it wants.
On the other though, it cannot afford to give up, as any pretence of reset, détente or perestroika have just been trampled into the mud.

This is why I see no option but for Russia to remove the Crimea from contention, as otherwise the efforts to loosen and destabilise will just go on and on.

For Russia and China, there is no longer any "polite" doubt about the West being trustworthy partners and future International relations will be carried out in that light.

Equation · Mar 20, 2014

hlcc said:
Ukrainian TV boss assaulted and forced to resign by far-right Svoboda MPs

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Poor guy, they rough him up and intimidate him pretty bad. Someone tell that big guy that sporting a pony tail is outdated even for a hired thug in the henchman world mafia fashion.

solarz · Mar 20, 2014

SampanViking said:
You are right to ask the question Solarz and I would say that the preparedness of the West to undertake such obvious risk gives an insight to what exactly is at stake in all this.

If The West has succeeded in inducting the Ukraine including Crimea into the EU and NATO, had succeeded in evicting the Russian Navy, taken over the facilities and turned the Black Sea into a NATO lake it would have achieved two very substantial objectives.

1) Remove the ability of Russia to project power beyond its periphery and lose its ability to support friends like Syria and Iran.

2) Suffer such a loss of national pride and confidence that the Russian state would risk face an existential threat from it.

It was a major and serious play and it is the kind of play that you do not get wrong because it is very difficult to go back from it.

So on the one hand, the West; you would suppose, would be best served by realising that the moment has passed and it did not get what it wants.
On the other though, it cannot afford to give up, as any pretence of reset, détente or perestroika have just been trampled into the mud.

This is why I see no option but for Russia to remove the Crimea from contention, as otherwise the efforts to loosen and destabilise will just go on and on.

For Russia and China, there is no longer any "polite" doubt about the West being trustworthy partners and future International relations will be carried out in that light.

You are right of course, but the actions of the West did not seem to indicate any understanding that this was such an important play. Every factor you listed is exactly the reason why Russia was willing to deploy its military. However, it does not seem the West had any kind of follow-up plan beyond causing enough agitation to create regime-change in Ukraine.

If we look at both Syria and Ukraine, it almost looks like Washington itself is divided. You've got one faction trying to push for regime change in either Syria or Ukraine, probably to achieve the same objective. The other faction, headed by the POTUS, seems extremely reluctant to engage in a confrontation with Russia. Obama, in fact on both accounts, did everything he could to pave a highway for the inevitable Russian response.

SampanViking · Mar 20, 2014

solarz said:
You are right of course, but the actions of the West did not seem to indicate any understanding that this was such an important play. Every factor you listed is exactly the reason why Russia was willing to deploy its military. However, it does not seem the West had any kind of follow-up plan beyond causing enough agitation to create regime-change in Ukraine.

If we look at both Syria and Ukraine, it almost looks like Washington itself is divided. You've got one faction trying to push for regime change in either Syria or Ukraine, probably to achieve the same objective. The other faction, headed by the POTUS, seems extremely reluctant to engage in a confrontation with Russia. Obama, in fact on both accounts, did everything he could to pave a highway for the inevitable Russian response.

I do suspect that this is the case. I must caution about trying to explore this avenue though, as it is as highly contentious as it is off topic.

Miragedriver · Mar 20, 2014

There is no question that Putin's annexation of Crimea was morally reprehensible. Russia (i.e. Putin) has acted cynically and high-handed but also in accordance with Russian interests and none of what transpired, in the past month, should have caught many people off guard. Why did the European Union attempt to bring the Ukraine into the fold if it was not willing to invest large sums of money and act seriously? Did they get complacent with the other Eastern European nations it has incorporated? Additionally, what did we expect Russia (Putin) to do, given the long and complicated history with the Ukraine? From Putin's point of view the Western inroads into the Ukraine, confused as they were, could be considered a prelude to an eventual NATO membership for Ukraine. Like the cold blooded and unscrupulous leader that Putin is, he seized the opportunity presented to him by the Ukrainian Parliament's ouster of Yanukovych and gobbled up the Crimea. Why is anyone surprised? In the final analysis Russia will never willingly tolerate a Western-dominated Ukraine. Who did not see or consider this in their planning?

I love the West; however the Western Leadership in the Age of Liberal Progressiveness is making me ill. Putin sees the inaction and lack of resolve and knows he had nothing to fear. This continued course of Liberal progressiveness is an ideology of the suicide for the West. The actions of slow moving and ineffective leadership is a poison that will hasten our demise.

Miragedriver · Mar 20, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
History always repeats it self especially when you forget to learn it. Whether or not these Ultra right are real or just the product of Russian propaganda matters little and does little to justify anything. Or make them a threat.
what has happened is a President has been reissued. And the clock has been set back to the 1800's as the rule of the gun and true imperialism has just come back into fashion. Russia has been issued a invade where ever you want and get away with it card.

The Crimea issue and the Ukrainian dispute has ramifications which are not limited to eastern Europe, and will cause issues in any territorial dispute including potentially those of China. That is why the PRC abstained in the security council vote. Because although Beijing wanted to back Moscow they knew actively doing so would have ramifications in the three troubled provinces.

The nations of Eastern Europe particularly nations that once flew the banner of the USSR, have a fire lit under there proverbial asses to either make a peace with Putin... And potentially have him scrap it at his first opportunity or forge a NATO membership, a unlikely event. Or forge there own alliance of some kind.

as to the remains of the Ukraine they have to forge a new government, and realize that Jaw Jaw is the only defense they have.

for the US once again ineptitude and inspired incompetent as the Obama administration has gone out of its way to burn bridges with Russia and display just how much of a .......... He really is. He displayed Americans power to protect Libyan oil interests but did not bother to do more then sigh at Russian aggression.
Aggressive behavior has just been legalized.

and the ramifications to Latin America are already brewing in Venezuela.

I agree TerraN, 100%, if we don’t read and learn from history we will repeat it. If anyone want to know what is next they do not need a crystal ball, they just need to read Putin's speech to the Duma.

The Sudetenland (sorry I mean Crimea) is lost. The West is not going fight for it, they will probably not fight for Eastern or Southern Ukraine either. Nor Moldavia, nor Georgia. Probably not even the Baltic States. Probably for Poland though.
(I say this somewhat jokingly).

The truly sad thing is that every time we do nothing makes the price of ending this become much higher.

shen · Mar 20, 2014

solarz said:
You are right of course, but the actions of the West did not seem to indicate any understanding that this was such an important play. Every factor you listed is exactly the reason why Russia was willing to deploy its military. However, it does not seem the West had any kind of follow-up plan beyond causing enough agitation to create regime-change in Ukraine.

If we look at both Syria and Ukraine, it almost looks like Washington itself is divided. You've got one faction trying to push for regime change in either Syria or Ukraine, probably to achieve the same objective. The other faction, headed by the POTUS, seems extremely reluctant to engage in a confrontation with Russia. Obama, in fact on both accounts, did everything he could to pave a highway for the inevitable Russian response.

one theory is lack of supervision of overzealous subordinates.

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TerraN_EmpirE · Mar 20, 2014

wowa97 said:
How about the International Space Station?

Due to the early retirement of the American Space shuttle orbiter, NASA is reliant upon the Russian Soyuz space launch system for regular crew swaps. There is I believe a intended crew change coming in next few months.
that said there is some issues as pro Russian militia have been spotted barricading sections of ISS and have a referendum vote scheduled this week when the two cosmonauts will decide whether to declare the ISS independence and part of the Russian federation... Word is there has been opposition from a far ultra right minority possibly the American astronaut.

Jeff Head · Mar 20, 2014

--------------- MODERATOR's INSTRUCTIONS ---------------

Cut the theorizing and political posturing. On both sides.

STAY ON TOPIC!

This thread is not about analyzing the failings of Obama or opining about the "evil" nature of Putin.

It is a contentious, and serious issue, but we must limit the discussion to what is actually happening in the Urkaine, particularly the military and technological angle because this is, after all, a military forum. Limit the talk of politics and East vs West as much as possible. Some of this is unavoidable, and we all are, to one degree or another, guilty of letting ourselves be pulled in that direction.

But it has to stop. Lately the posts are drifting far too deeply into the politics and not following what is actually happening on the ground.

Any attempt to absolutely explain the good or the bad of one side or the other is inevitbaly going to lead to high emotion, arguements, and ultimate flame wars, none of which can be tolerated on SD.

Let this be a WARNING!

------------- END MODERATOR's INSTRUCTIONS -------------

2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

wowa97

Just Hatched

SampanViking

The Capitalist

Equation

Lieutenant General

solarz

Brigadier

SampanViking

The Capitalist

Miragedriver

Brigadier

Miragedriver

Brigadier

shen

Senior Member

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

Jeff Head

General