2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos
- Thread starter bd popeye
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MwRYum
Major
Of all honesty, the EU won't want to burden itself with the "West Ukraine" (face it, Ukraine as we knew is dead, probably for good), unless Brussels seriously going to blatantly ignore the whole Bandera freak shows in Kiev; and they ain't going to induct that rotten hellhole into the Euro-Zone either, which the "West Ukraine" has an economy makes the Euro PIGGS looks like all sun shines and bunnies.
And above all, when the trading day after the Crimea referendum saw a rise on stock indexes, you can already tell what everyone really thinks - Crimea back to Russia and that's going to be final, even the US knows it, alas they won't admit it openly.
Now, the next chapter will be when would the Ukrainians woke up to the fact that the Western powers screwed 'em 'n dumped 'em - again - big time. IIRC the Eastern Ukraine holds the cream of its assets and also where most residents are ethnic Russians. With the Bandera freaks in Kiev and example of Crimea annexation still fresh, the Ukrainians still has plenty more smacking at their face coming.
Kurt
Junior Member
A moment ago some server informed (maybe correctly, maybe not) Germany most recently pulled off from building a combat training facility in Mulino, Russia; I had no idea where it is:
and what it isso I used google and check this 2011 article:
"History makes plain where a warming Russo-German relationship will lead. If a peace pact results, it will indicate that one or both sides are gearing up for another imperialistic campaign."
I repeat, it's 2011 article; gives some links which look interesting, too.
EDIT
I hope this information is true:
"Given the current situation, the German government considers the construction of a military training facility in Russia to be inappropriate," Gabriel told the German DPA news agency on Wednesday." (refers to
Social Democrat Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel)
Maybe Kurt will comment on it
Rheinmetall wants to continue doing business as usual and finish the project this year, as was reported 21 and 20 hours ago. Reporting about it this way forces the German gouvernment to act.
And here they come, after 7 hours of consultation time: 14 hours ago the German gouvernment has for now put a temporary halt to the Rheinmetall project of constructing this training site in Mulino.
That's no big issue. Many forces have training sites constructed by Rheinmetall all over the world. Now the construction in Russia has a temporary delay due to political friction between Russia and the alliances Germany is part of. The German gouvernment is taking every available measure to water down all sanction attempts and protect the German economy that is deeply intertwined with Russia. As you will notice from the German report, they did not cancel it, but put it on temporary hold for now, this is the minimum damage course Germany is taking on this issue.
The German situation is dire, they are in an alliance whith a number of major nations that can cry for whatever sanctions and have nothing to lose, while Germany has to take the brunt of negative economic effects. "Fuck the EU" was the best assessment of the situation and after all things said and done, Germany will have no other chance, but bolstering their financial levers within the EU to advert any more such screw ups. Long before Snowden it was known that the Western alliances were misusing their position in Germany to spy on Germany and German corporations. The Snowden issue gave the public a knowledge of this issue and created an outcry. After things settled down, it was decided to launch officially defensive surveillance measures against these exploitations. Do not underestimate these. It's major German economic interests that the spying Western allies threaten right now and there's general agreement that a defence against the economic threat must be taken. These Rheinmetall reports are typical of intelligence leaks by someone to news agents who then turn it into stories that force the gouvernment to act.
These are the connections between espionage and journalism and we are likely to see more such reports that single out certain important business transactions.
The whole Ukraine issue was almost non-news in Germany and now it is only limited news without any in depth reporting.
It might be hard to swallow, but Germany has written off the Ukrainian fascist (not the democrats) and remains as aloof as possible from the situation. News magazines make their money from selling and advertising. Wiping up sentiments for sanctions will hurt economically the companies that pay for adverts in the magazines and the people buying magazines. Journalism is already facing tough times due to the new distribution models via internet and economic sanctions against Russia would make it much harder for writers in German language.They would shoot themselves in the leg as soon as they call for economic sanctions.
The Mistral deal is likely also on hold for now and has not been completely canceled, count this as a big French favour to the USA. All sides are searching for a solution that allows them to save face.
According to Merkel some kind of economic sanctions against Russia are possible in exchange for European unity.
Whatever is exactly going on behind closed doors remains a mystery. We have to wait a few weeks for things to sort out.
The negotiations are complicated and there is talk about improving the EU structure. Taking this spin would allow to make the Ukrainian question a founding stone of many future myths of EU and Russia, how they battled for justice against the forces of Mordor.
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Ukraine’s Gold Reserves Flown Out and Confiscated by the New York Federal Reserve?
I don't think Ukraine would see this gold again:
History repets itself. What happend to Iraqi's and Libya's gold reserves ?
Source:
Source:
I don't think Ukraine would see this gold again:
Source:
History repets itself. What happend to Iraqi's and Libya's gold reserves ?
Source:
Kurt
Junior Member
This is an old report. Germany has been selling this gold or transporting it to their own safes in Germany. The transport is still going on. It means that there is some dissatisfaction with the way gold outside German territory was handled, but the gold does actually appear in physical form for transport to Germany. The dissatisfaction has its roots in the decision of the German Bundesrechnungshof(Federal Court of Auditors) to demand more inspections of gold reserves abroad. This sudden increase of German inspection missions created friction. These inspections penetrate a high security vault that is much safer without people coming and going all the time.
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I think we can see how this is going to play for the next period of time.
Putin has succeeded with his move on Crimea and is now carefully consolidating his position and the place of the republic with the Russian Federation. He has indeed secured the strategic interest of his country and cemented his own position in the process.
The Ukraine without the Crimea is of course a Booby Prize and the West has been left holding it and to try to manage all the unrealistic and expensive expectations that they fanned in order to achieve the Maidan Revolution.
Putin I am sure is not finished, but his first priority is now to secure the prize Crimea and then let time pass in his favour.
I am sure the Kremlin's preferred plan is to let the popular wave that swept the Maidan protesters into power become a popular backlash that could easily sweep them out again. I also believe Putin when he says he favours a unified Ukraine.
Putin's plan A seems to be to let the Maidan government explain to their sponsors how they failed to deliver and how the only thing that the sponsors wanted was able to slip so fully and irredeemably from their grasp. It is a major humiliation for Kiev and one that will have financial consequences with respect to their sponsors and this will start to erode the public legitimacy. This erosion will be intensified by the ongoing process in the East and South, where largely pro Russian regions are setting themselves up as de-facto autonomous regions that do not recognise or answer too the Maidan administration. These regions are confident to do this as Putin has given his pledge to protect Russian compatriots in these regions and has shown; in the Crimea, that he is good as his word.
In this regard Putin is signalling that he wants a return to the neutral Ukraine of before (minus of course The Crimea which is gone for good) with the removal of the radical Maidan Government. Despite the huffing and puffing, many will take this offer of a carrot seriously as it will offload an awkward liability for a state no longer able to offer the prize that has been the heart of the previous problems.
It is a good carrot as there is a very real stick as an alternative. This is that if the Maidan Government try to crack down on the Pro Russian Regions or if NATO forces enter the country, that Russia will send its troops into the friendly regions and that the best possible outcome from that point is the permanent partition of the Ukraine and that the West is left holding the least valuable and most politically embarrassing portion of it. The worst outcomes do not warrant mentioning.
If the West simply tries to build a new status quo by giving the Maidan Government all the support it needs to survive, then it slides into de-facto partition and plants the seeds for eventual session of the Pro-Russian regions to Russia, at some point in the future.
My prediction is that Putin will propose a deal based around a new constitution in which most regions achieve greater autonomy and work together on a more Federal Basis. This will enable the West to back out from a major and unwanted liability and possibly enable individual regions to build external trade ties to their liking but without involving others that are less willing.
At home Putin will also be able to consolidate his and his party's position further. The problem with targeted sanctions as currently proposed, is that it tends to highlight and expose those that are not being targeted. This means that Putin will be able to put those pro western oligarchs (which no doubt the West would love to see replace Mr Putin) under considerable scrutiny and present them as behaving questionably. Claims and actions in respect of Collaboration, if not out right treachery are most likely on the cards.
Putin has succeeded with his move on Crimea and is now carefully consolidating his position and the place of the republic with the Russian Federation. He has indeed secured the strategic interest of his country and cemented his own position in the process.
The Ukraine without the Crimea is of course a Booby Prize and the West has been left holding it and to try to manage all the unrealistic and expensive expectations that they fanned in order to achieve the Maidan Revolution.
Putin I am sure is not finished, but his first priority is now to secure the prize Crimea and then let time pass in his favour.
I am sure the Kremlin's preferred plan is to let the popular wave that swept the Maidan protesters into power become a popular backlash that could easily sweep them out again. I also believe Putin when he says he favours a unified Ukraine.
Putin's plan A seems to be to let the Maidan government explain to their sponsors how they failed to deliver and how the only thing that the sponsors wanted was able to slip so fully and irredeemably from their grasp. It is a major humiliation for Kiev and one that will have financial consequences with respect to their sponsors and this will start to erode the public legitimacy. This erosion will be intensified by the ongoing process in the East and South, where largely pro Russian regions are setting themselves up as de-facto autonomous regions that do not recognise or answer too the Maidan administration. These regions are confident to do this as Putin has given his pledge to protect Russian compatriots in these regions and has shown; in the Crimea, that he is good as his word.
In this regard Putin is signalling that he wants a return to the neutral Ukraine of before (minus of course The Crimea which is gone for good) with the removal of the radical Maidan Government. Despite the huffing and puffing, many will take this offer of a carrot seriously as it will offload an awkward liability for a state no longer able to offer the prize that has been the heart of the previous problems.
It is a good carrot as there is a very real stick as an alternative. This is that if the Maidan Government try to crack down on the Pro Russian Regions or if NATO forces enter the country, that Russia will send its troops into the friendly regions and that the best possible outcome from that point is the permanent partition of the Ukraine and that the West is left holding the least valuable and most politically embarrassing portion of it. The worst outcomes do not warrant mentioning.
If the West simply tries to build a new status quo by giving the Maidan Government all the support it needs to survive, then it slides into de-facto partition and plants the seeds for eventual session of the Pro-Russian regions to Russia, at some point in the future.
My prediction is that Putin will propose a deal based around a new constitution in which most regions achieve greater autonomy and work together on a more Federal Basis. This will enable the West to back out from a major and unwanted liability and possibly enable individual regions to build external trade ties to their liking but without involving others that are less willing.
At home Putin will also be able to consolidate his and his party's position further. The problem with targeted sanctions as currently proposed, is that it tends to highlight and expose those that are not being targeted. This means that Putin will be able to put those pro western oligarchs (which no doubt the West would love to see replace Mr Putin) under considerable scrutiny and present them as behaving questionably. Claims and actions in respect of Collaboration, if not out right treachery are most likely on the cards.
I know that the transport "is still going on". The problem is how fast it is going on:
Source:
What is the problem in transporting 300 tonnes of gold ? If you actually have them you can transport it in one day.
China should carefully guard its own gold if it does not want it's gold to be aircrafted To U.S.
Kurt
Junior Member
Running the security? You need a treasure fleet, a treasure train and a treasure smelter (because of German bureaucracy). The gold transport is rather a non-issue in Germany. You try to make a point, but miss essentials. All the gold has been checked over and over again. Some German bureaucrats demanded a lot more inspections. That caused friction. To reduce the friction, it was decided to move the gold to Germany, where much less inspections are necessary, as is normal for all gold reserves. Moving this gold is not as easy as moving your luggage, because numerous people would steal and run given the chance to gather so much easily disposeable value. The Bundesbank is slowly building an infrastructure to accomplish this. You have not the faintest clue about German bureaucracy and its modus operandi, it does indeed take them so long to accomplish such a task and they will get only better as soon as gold transport becomes a permanent job description for enough bureaucrats. This has zero to do with the gold having disappeared. It just means the very many checks were annoying and now the German bureaucrats begin to realize how difficult gold security does become if gold or people move. And Germany bureaucracy is a real pain in the way they handle any imagineable risk. It can also be a bureaucratic gameplay between Rechnungshof and Bundesbank, showing the Rechnungshof how expensive their decision is.
And we are rather contemplating selling all that gold abroad, because we don't need it.
This is a good article from a Russian blog that explains the ongoing game in Ukraine between US/EU and Russia:
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solarz
Brigadier
One question I haven't heard asked, and which was reminded to me by delft's link, is: what are the consequences of trying to sanction one of the biggest players in global politics?
Does the US no longer need Russian cooperation with regards to Syria, Iran and North Korea? What happens to their strategy of trying to play China and Russia against each other?
It seems to me that if the US were to push Russia too hard on Ukraine, they would lose big in other, more vital, areas of strategic interests.
And that, of course, is the real reason why you don't encroach on another power's core interests.
Does the US no longer need Russian cooperation with regards to Syria, Iran and North Korea? What happens to their strategy of trying to play China and Russia against each other?
It seems to me that if the US were to push Russia too hard on Ukraine, they would lose big in other, more vital, areas of strategic interests.
And that, of course, is the real reason why you don't encroach on another power's core interests.
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