2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

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The probability is that a majority of those with the right to vote today in the Crimea will vote for transfer to Russia and that Russia will then do nothing formally until the end of this year. ...

"The probability is that a majority of those with the right to vote today in the Crimea will vote for transfer to Russia and that Russia will":

declare Crimea to be a part of the Russian Federation since 00:00 hours (local time) of March 17, 2014 and,

as a consequence, demand all foreign military personnel surrender immediately!
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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I think I share Jura's view on this one as I see no reason for Putin to wait.
If he does it could make him look weak and indecisive and makes both the status of the region and the presence of Russian forces matters for negotiation and time; under those conditions, is an enemy.
He can pocket the Crimea and make the other areas the ones for negotiation. I think the Crimea is too critically important to play games with.

Personally I suspect he will take the view of "hung for a sheep as for a lamb" and take the Eastern Ukraine as well, very soon.
 
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SampanViking,

I think I share Jura's view on this one as I see no reason for Putin to wait.
...

Does this make me a war hawk? :) Well, I reacted to delft's "probability post" (#490 in this thread) and my point was his scenario was as likely as any other ... Personally, I feared the hostilities would start during the night 1-2 March (right after Putin was authorized to use Russian Armed Forces abroad): I expected Ukrainian bases in the Crimea to be besieged immediately, and somebody making a mistake (a machine gunner, for example). Fortunately, I was wrong!
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Riot police stand in front of pro-Russian activists as they storm the prosecutor's office in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk:
s2w5rm9.jpg


The scene in Lenin Square, Simferopol:
8xPzqzH.jpg


Crimeans at a polling station in Bakhchisarai, Simferopol:
Msc43k8.jpg


Crimeans voting at a polling station in Bakhchisarai, Simferopol:
cQPEFZW.jpg


Here's the tri-lingual ballot, in Russian, Ukrainian and Tatar:
h0QhUIP.jpg

Can anyone in the forum translate this ballot?

An elderly woman casts her vote at a polling station in Sevastopol:
luSQuyP.jpg
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
A Democracy is always the best form of government for personal, economic and social freedoms, however not all nations can handle a Western democracy and a democracy as such may not be the answer. First we need to think about how Western democracy works. A perfect example is the two party systems like the U.S.A. and U.K. (effectively two parties; Republican and Democrat, or Torry and Labour) then it only works with the undecided or non-aligned voters who change allegiance depending on various social and economic factors which interest them. There are large groups who always vote for one party or the other, but it is the undecided voters who decide the outcome of the election. Hence, U.S. elections are very much focused on the “swing” states that decide the outcome. In the Arab world you have Shia and Sunni Muslims and no swing voters, whichever has the majority in that country always gets into power creating a large disenchanted minority.

Some countries are so bitterly divided they could never have democracy and are broken up to separate the warring factions. Once the similar groups are divided, then Western democracy can function; e.g. India (Hindu) and Pakistan (Muslim); the old Yugoslavia into Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia.

To bring democracy to the Ukraine the territorial boundaries will need to be re-drawn to keep like minded groups together. The Ukraine is split into a West leaning population and a Russian leaning population. And unfortunately for the average citizen that just wants to live a tranquil life. These two polarized faction will not remain quiet and peaceful.

Personally I don’t like the why the Russians are handling the referendum and the annexation. There needs to be a rule of law. This has been a complete one handed exchange by Russia.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Great post kurt! It is what many people I talk to are thinking and you reticulated it exactly.

This is what scares me the most
Using military force against a capable opposition would be no less costly than a trade war, but can make short term gains that can afterwards be defended against whatever enemy onslaught (military or economic).
 

Rutim

Banned Idiot
Riot police stand in front of pro-Russian activists as they storm the prosecutor's office in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk:
s2w5rm9.jpg


The scene in Lenin Square, Simferopol:
8xPzqzH.jpg


An elderly woman casts her vote at a polling station in Sevastopol:
luSQuyP.jpg
Meanwhile Crimean 'self-defence' pacify an Ukrainian provocateur who says that she doesn't need Russians to save Crimean people from Ukrainians

[video=youtube;7Obuy2QEQBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Obuy2QEQBE[/video]
 

Franklin

Captain
According to the latest exit poll 93% of the Crimeans favour joining Russia. I don't know if annexing Crimea was the plan from day one with the Russians. But i would like to see what the Russians will do next. Actually annex Crimea or offer them a autonomy comparable to South Ossetia and Abchazia.

[video=youtube;r2WiUzodApg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2WiUzodApg&list=UUpwvZwUam-URkxB7g4USKpg[/video]
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Personally I don’t like the why the Russians are handling the referendum and the annexation. There needs to be a rule of law. This has been a complete one handed exchange by Russia.


I understand, but what about the people from eastern Ukraine who are mostly ethnic Russians and the majority are loyal to Russia may not feel the same way with the current government in Kiev? Does anyone know if they have the same representatives or any at all to voice their concerns from this new Kiev government? What I see is struggle between what dictates as law and constitutional while saying the other sides action (annex of Crimea) isn't. It's still boils down to might makes right again, battle of perspective be damn! And right now Putin and Russia has the might because of all the troops movement and armed forces preparation been going on since.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
Funny how there is still people who claim that there ain't Russian soldiers in Crimea, but we have videos like this where one of the soldiers admits that he's from Russia.
[video=youtube;wMJwdX5IHm8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMJwdX5IHm8[/video]
 
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