2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

Kurt · Mar 17, 2014

1. Immediately begin sending C-17s into Kiev with military supplies, military advisors, military trainers, humanitarian supplies, and small security detachments to protect the same. Make it a river of C-17s, and ensure those aircraft are escorted into and out of Kiev and other major cities in the Ukraine at the invite of the Ukraine.

2. Immediately release all restrictions on the exploration, extraction, and production of natural gas and oil, and restrictions on its import to Europe. Sadly, this should have been done (and was in the process of being done) in 2008 as Bush left office...but Obama turned it all off. It will now take 3-5 years to be in a position to address Europe’s needs, but starting the process will send the message and impact the Ruble.

3. Take whatever financial means necessary to isolate the Ruble as a world currency.

Number 2 sounds sensible.
Number 1 is a waste of efforts, because the Ukrainian military seems as dysfunctional as their state.
Number 3 is pushing Germany on the brink of an economic crisis. It will only work if the US is finally willing to order military hardware from EADS and sign a no-spy contract with Germany. Forget natural gas exploitation in the USA, there's enough gas available in Europe and the Mediterranean to do this within the same timeframe.
Current situation with real economic sanctions is: "Hey Germany, little guy, you go and fight Russia on your own. Tell us, when you have won."(Reminds one of this brilliant commander Artemisia in 300 Rise of an Empire)
Germany is the one with half the economic connections with Russia. They decide whether this number 3 gets enacted or not and they are the ones, who will bleed economically for it. The NSA scandal destroyed much trust in the alliance with the USA. Germans feel like being farmed for information and ideas by the big brother on the other side of the pond. Forget sending gas, it needs the signature under a no-spy treaty. That is a major concern for the German public and EADS ousters from winning US contracts is a running joke for unfair treatments by the US. The US is quite lucky with Merkel being in power because she is far more pro-USA in her stances than the German population that elects.

thunderchief · Mar 17, 2014

Jeff Head said:
1. Immediately begin sending C-17s into Kiev with military supplies, military advisors, military trainers, humanitarian supplies, and small security detachments to protect the same. Make it a river of C-17s, and ensure those aircraft are escorted into and out of Kiev and other major cities in the Ukraine at the invite of the Ukraine.

Ukraine doesn't lack military equipment . In fact they are relatively large exporter of military hardware. What is lacking is men willing to fight and die for current regime in Kiev . In that sense, Ukrainian Army is unreliable for current government so they are trying to form some kind of National Guard but with little success so far. Also, presumption that Putin would sit idly while NATO troops stream into Ukraine is naive at best.

Jeff Head said:
2. Immediately release all restrictions on the exploration, extraction, and production of natural gas and oil, and restrictions on its import to Europe. Sadly, this should have been done (and was in the process of being done) in 2008 as Bush left office...but Obama turned it all off. It will now take 3-5 years to be in a position to address Europe’s needs, but starting the process will send the message and impact the Ruble.

At a present moment US still doesn't produce enough natural gas for its own needs :

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And even if they do, price would be much larger then Russian gas, because of the method of production and larger transport cost. There are other sources in the world, but none of them could replace Russian supply at the same price and with current economic problems in Europe any hike could be the straw that broke camel's back.

Jeff Head said:
3. Take whatever financial means necessary to isolate the Ruble as a world currency.

Ruble is not world currency in real sense, Russia does not use it to trade with European countries. On the other hand, US dollar is, and Russia has quite nice reserve of it . If they decide to sell it of and replace with some other currency, and also not to accept dollars any more - well...It would not bring US economy down, but it would be a very sharp blow.

Miragedriver · Mar 17, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
do you know what drives me nuts? The US,UK, even the Netherlands are not true democracy's yet just about everyone gets that wrong. They are True Democratic Republics'. The difference? In a true democracy everything is voted on and majority rule is absolute. The flaw? If 51% vote to kill 49% pray you were in the 51%.
a Democratic Republic rules via a system where in you elect and install representing individuals who then are supposed to enact the policy of the population well considering both the majority and the minority views and respecting a set system of Recognized Rights that the government cannot interfere with. The problems we have seen in the Ukraine and other places like Egypt and now Venezuela? The governments of these nations stopped listening to the population and decided that the people are under the government. Government is in there view absolute, but this has caused the population to feel that there rights guaranteed by that government ( they are not Granted by the government they are recognized by it or should be) are being infringed. The view we see from Russia in the case of the Ukraine is that the old Government had all the rights and the people are in the wrong. This is the thing that drives me insane! Its contrary to the very function of and need of government. Government is there at the grace of the community it represents to perform set functions for the community, Defense and enforcement of recognized ethical standards (I.E. You can't kill you neighbors.) with respect to a set number of limitations (I.E. What consenting adults do in there homes you might not agree with but if they are not infringing another persons rights there is nothing that should be done about it.) set services in regards to standards of living (I.E. Keeping roads, removal of sewage, search and rescue putting out fires) through either contracting with parties or creation of agencies to perform these services.
Yet what we see is the Government saying it has rights superior to the people. That's just mind boggling.
the people should be above the government. Yet it seems just about everywhere there is this mentality that the Government knows better and should set the standards not just for basic services but down to the way of life. I mean really, what right should a government have in decisions of a personal nature? What right should government have in developing business? I can understand preventing dangerous technologies from moving to places that could turn them against you. The Ukrainian people acted up as they viewed the Russian deal as the last straw. They say there nation bankrupted by the standing governments and when they felt that perhaps by moving to trade outside of simply Russia would have offered a chance as perhaps reestablishing there economic development and maybe even a chance at reforms. Yet then the Russian deal and in it a extreme Tariff with trade outside of the two way exchange. People protested, the government cracked down, lives were lost the protests got bigger and when the government moved to crack more skulls they suddenly found a population that was not going to take it. The population fought back.
In Egypt the Moslem Brothers set to rampant reforms targeting there pet issues, the economy kept falling worse and worse and they ignored it. The people were frustrated with Islamic state and financial ruin they protested, the brotherhood moved in to crack skulls. More protested more violence the Military had enough, they moved in and asserted authority whether rightly or wrongly. They acted on the will of the people, and set to trying again.
in Venezuela we see a government that has enacted extreme attempts at manipulation of the economy to the devastation of the economy, a strong arm held it together though, then he died and his cult of personality faulted as the selected replacement is no Chavez. So the people rise up the government moves to beat them down.

You are correct it is a representative Republic, where representatives are democratically elected and "supposedly" represent the interests of the constituents that elected them. On the other hand a democracy is basically majority rule, and as you said, pray that you are in the 51% majority. I guess you could say that a true democracy is like two wolves and cow voting on what is for supper.

The fact remains as stated in post 495 that many nations are so polarized that a majority in that country always gets into power creating a large disenchanted minority. This eventually breaks down since there are no institutions in place to maintain a civil society from deteriorating.

kwaigonegin · Mar 17, 2014

TerraN_EmpirE said:
do you know what drives me nuts? The US,UK, even the Netherlands are not true democracy's yet just about everyone gets that wrong. They are True Democratic Republics'. The difference? In a true democracy everything is voted on and majority rule is absolute. The flaw? If 51% vote to kill 49% pray you were in the 51%.
a Democratic Republic rules via a system where in you elect and install representing individuals who then are supposed to enact the policy of the population well considering both the majority and the minority views and respecting a set system of Recognized Rights that the government cannot interfere with. The problems we have seen in the Ukraine and other places like Egypt and now Venezuela? The governments of these nations stopped listening to the population and decided that the people are under the government. Government is in there view absolute, but this has caused the population to feel that there rights guaranteed by that government ( they are not Granted by the government they are recognized by it or should be) are being infringed. The view we see from Russia in the case of the Ukraine is that the old Government had all the rights and the people are in the wrong. This is the thing that drives me insane! Its contrary to the very function of and need of government. Government is there at the grace of the community it represents to perform set functions for the community, Defense and enforcement of recognized ethical standards (I.E. You can't kill you neighbors.) with respect to a set number of limitations (I.E. What consenting adults do in there homes you might not agree with but if they are not infringing another persons rights there is nothing that should be done about it.) set services in regards to standards of living (I.E. Keeping roads, removal of sewage, search and rescue putting out fires) through either contracting with parties or creation of agencies to perform these services.
Yet what we see is the Government saying it has rights superior to the people. That's just mind boggling.
the people should be above the government. Yet it seems just about everywhere there is this mentality that the Government knows better and should set the standards not just for basic services but down to the way of life. I mean really, what right should a government have in decisions of a personal nature? What right should government have in developing business? I can understand preventing dangerous technologies from moving to places that could turn them against you. The Ukrainian people acted up as they viewed the Russian deal as the last straw. They say there nation bankrupted by the standing governments and when they felt that perhaps by moving to trade outside of simply Russia would have offered a chance as perhaps reestablishing there economic development and maybe even a chance at reforms. Yet then the Russian deal and in it a extreme Tariff with trade outside of the two way exchange. People protested, the government cracked down, lives were lost the protests got bigger and when the government moved to crack more skulls they suddenly found a population that was not going to take it. The population fought back.
In Egypt the Moslem Brothers set to rampant reforms targeting there pet issues, the economy kept falling worse and worse and they ignored it. The people were frustrated with Islamic state and financial ruin they protested, the brotherhood moved in to crack skulls. More protested more violence the Military had enough, they moved in and asserted authority whether rightly or wrongly. They acted on the will of the people, and set to trying again.
in Venezuela we see a government that has enacted extreme attempts at manipulation of the economy to the devastation of the economy, a strong arm held it together though, then he died and his cult of personality faulted as the selected replacement is no Chavez. So the people rise up the government moves to beat them down.

Technically our country is a constitutionally limited representative democratic republic. Now what the heck does that mean? it means that we have a Constitution that limits the power of the government and that we elect representatives to the seat of government so in that sense it is not a true democracy HOWEVER we elect those representatives based on majority votes (or technically districts or in the case of POTUS the electoral college).

Like you said a country CANNOT be a Democracy and a Constitutional Limited Republic at the same time. I worry that the powers to be are trying to usurp the Constitution and the Bill of Rights under the guise of 'national security' or some 'will of the majority' cliche.

That sounds a LOT like democracy in the truest sense and that is NOT a good thing! I cringe everytime some US politician says we're trying to bring democracy to country A etc. Well guess what? you got your wish senator.
Country A is now a democracy and the majority of the people there just voted for this scumbag who hates the US but he won fair and square. As the saying goes becareful what you wish for.. you may just get it.

The Crimea is similar. If indeed the majority of folks did vote to stay with Russia then we HAVE to recognized their voting
rights lest we be hypocrites ourselves. We can argue back and forth about the legalities of the votes but the fact is the citizens have voted and unless it was proven rigged or obtain through some other nefarious means the voters have the right to what they want, again since we 'spread' democracy we then have to owned it.

In the US I would also presume that if say over 90% of a state's population truly wants to secede from the Union, it is very likely going to happen despite possible huge repercussion. There is no clear opinion or black and white laws that governs secession in modern times but I imagined it can happen IF enough people (+75%) demands it.

Sorry for the OT rant!

solarz · Mar 17, 2014

It seems pretty obvious to me that Putin is going to consolidate his gains in Crimea before contemplating moving into Eastern Ukraine. The best thing the West can do at this point is get the acts of their Kiev guys together and start forming a competent government. All this whining and hand-wringing about the "illegal" referendum is not going to be any use.

SampanViking · Mar 17, 2014

I think add to the request for facepalm emoticon requests for double and mass versions as well!

With all the fine talk of "making Putin pay a price" and "incremental sanctions" the fact remains that it boils down to selling Ukraine to the Russians bit by bit. I think the Crimea has gone quite cheap and I do wonder what the going rate for the other Eastern and Southern Regions will prove to be?

Baroness Ashton is at least consistent, condemning a referendum with which she and the EU Commission disagree with the result, as invalid and thus maintains a fine and well established tradition.

Finally I would caution about Nato forces entering the Ukraine as Russian forces would immediately do likewise and the partition of the state would be messy, irreversible and therefore permanent.

At the end of the day, the changing of the status of the Ukraine has been a clumsy operation and those smarting over the consequences have only themselves to blame. Clearly there are strong Pro Russian sentiments in many of other Eastern and Southern areas outside of the Crimea. After foolishly throwing away the rule book in Kiev, the west can hardly complain if Russia replies in kind!

thunderchief · Mar 17, 2014

solarz said:
It seems pretty obvious to me that Putin is going to consolidate his gains in Crimea before contemplating moving into Eastern Ukraine. The best thing the West can do at this point is get the acts of their Kiev guys together and start forming a competent government. All this whining and hand-wringing about the "illegal" referendum is not going to be any use.

Well, you see, any half-competent government in Kiev would want to break ties with EU and get into close relationship with Russia . Why is that ? Pure interest

:

Ukraine has large industrial capacities, located mainly in the East . They also have fairly developed agriculture . Problem is, most of their capacity is compatible with Russia and other ex-USSR countries , not with EU. It is sad to admit, but one of the biggest Ukrainian exports to EU are young women for German brothels

Other then that, EU imports mainly agricultural goods and raw materials, while it exports industrial products. If Ukraine liberalize its trade with EU, you could expect rapid demise of Ukrainian domestic industry, same as it happened in other East European members of EU (Romania,Bulgaria,Greece, even Poland etc ...)

On the other hand , biggest importer of Ukrainian industrial goods was Russia . But make no mistake, even in Russia Ukrainian goods are not without competition. Years have passed, and lot of Ukrainian products have been replaced with Russian ones. That doesn't mean they don't have place in Russian market, but Russia could afford to live without them . Unfortunately for them, Ukraine depends on Russian natural gas (and oil to some extent) . With current lot in power, Russia has removed preferential status for Ukraine - now they pay same price as any other country . I said "pay" , but in reality Ukraine owns over $2B to Russia - you could expect reduced supply any day now .

Kurt · Mar 17, 2014

solarz said:
It seems pretty obvious to me that Putin is going to consolidate his gains in Crimea before contemplating moving into Eastern Ukraine. The best thing the West can do at this point is get the acts of their Kiev guys together and start forming a competent government. All this whining and hand-wringing about the "illegal" referendum is not going to be any use.

There are little chances for getting anything done in Kiev. The country is corrupt to the bones. Femen (the organization for naked breasts) started in Ukraine as a protest of female students against systemic sexual exploitation by professors for better grades. Russia has a lot to offer to the ruling oligarchs in Ukraine, while Europe can just sink money into a hole in the hope of some redistribution effect across the population. A majority of the population might wish for the EU, but Russia has the better offer for the Ukrainian elite. If a significant economic and security uplift happens in Crimea, Russia can likely "take over" Ukraine in some kind of union (like Kazakhstan and Belarus).
Ukraine is among many Eastern European exporters of women to Western Europe, but working in a brothel is just one of the job offers for Ukrainian girls. They do have job alternatives in Germany that pay much less and also make use of these. Brothel work has to do with the very consumerist attitudes in Eastern Europe that is highly focused on gaining money quickly and putting it all into status symbols. This is in stark contrast to wealthy countries like Germany, where people spend less on cars, clothes and mobile phones and more on solid housing and financial reserves.

Jeff Head · Mar 17, 2014

thunderchief said:
At a present moment US still doesn't produce enough natural gas for its own needs :
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
And even if they do, price would be much larger then Russian gas, because of the method of production and larger transport cost. There are other sources in the world, but none of them could replace Russian supply at the same price and with current economic problems in Europe any hike could be the straw that broke camel's back.

The US is currently the largest supplier/producer of natural gas in the world. We produce more than enough for our own needs, we just are not using all that we produce. That's how crazy the current amdinistration's policies and regulations are making things.

The US, within 3-5 years, if the US and the EU wanted it to be so, could prioduce more than enough for the European needs.

We just have to choose to do so. And as we did...the price would lower, and reflect that reality in the market.

Rutim · Mar 17, 2014

Kurt said:
If a significant economic and security uplift happens in Crimea, Russia can likely "take over" Ukraine in some kind of union (like Kazakhstan and Belarus).

What kind of 'uplift' can happen in Crimean economy when almost all the money they got was from tourism? Russia can sink some money there but they'll cut it down when something other will happen. They even get like 80% of dirinking water from 'mainland' Ukraine iirc...

2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

Kurt

Junior Member

thunderchief

Senior Member

Miragedriver

Brigadier

kwaigonegin

Colonel

solarz

Brigadier

SampanViking

The Capitalist

thunderchief

Senior Member

Kurt

Junior Member

Jeff Head

General

Rutim

Banned Idiot