09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[davidau]

US Media: Chinese navy has an overcapacity problem.

According to US, China seems to have practically everything overcapacity!

 

[ismellcopium]

From the podcast in December 2022 by Blitzo, Patch, Toaster etc, as per quote below:



So what does the bolded "them" refer to? Latter 093Bs, (hypothetical) 093Cs or 095s?

Clearly 095s imo, and I'd expect the same.. the first 095s early-mid Virginia level, with subsequent batches catching up to current VA.

 

[5unrise]

From the podcast in December 2022 by Blitzo, Patch, Toaster etc, as per quote below:



So what does the bolded "them" refer to? Latter 093Bs, (hypothetical) 093Cs or 095s?

Can you link me to the podcast by any chance?

 

[Staedler]

Can you link me to the podcast by any chance?

IIRC he took it down within a month of upload.

Transcribed manually, it was something like this:

They've actually mastered most of the tech needed for quieting submarines. Type 93 is a legacy submarine that's quite noisy. The original ones, the original 93s, the OG ones, were close to Sturgeon class boats really. (Patch: Yea, they were really bad) Yea they were quite noisy. And the new 93s are apparently decent like LA class. (Patch: 688i-ish) I do expect them to eventually reach early VA to mid VA level which is really quiet. (Patch: Diminishing returns level) At that point, when you're so quiet like that it doesn't really matter how much quieter you are because in any event you're only ever gonna be detected via towed array within 5-25 miles; very specific kinds of oceanic conditions. The detection range of the submarine can vary greater but we're definitely on the diminishing side of the returns curve. Even in the US, in terms of boat quieting, Boise LAs aren't that much quieter vs Seawolfs or early-class VAs. The technology to build quiet submarines has really proliferated since the end of the Cold War like CNC machines. China has plenty of those. Knowledge about rubber mounts and stuff. They've been able to mature(?) those from the Han to Shang class. So really all they have to knock out, as far as I know, are independent floating decks (rafting) which aren't that hard to master and once they get that and pumpjet technology down, I would expect them to eventually quiet down to VA-class boats - at least early VA boats by like 2030.

 

[AndrewS]

So the Patchwork interview was in December 2022.

Am I correct in thinking that none of the latest Type-093 (with the shrouded/pumpjet propellor and presumably other improvements) had left the shipyard by this time?

If so, would that mean that Patchwork's assertion of 688i level of quietness applies to the previous Type-093 already in service in 2018?

IIRC he took it down within a month of upload.

Transcribed manually, it was something like this:

They've actually mastered most of the tech needed for quieting submarines. Type 93 is a legacy submarine that's quite noisy. The original ones, the original 93s, the OG ones, were close to Sturgeon class boats really. (Patch: Yea, they were really bad) Yea they were quite noisy. And the new 93s are apparently decent like LA class. (Patch: 688i-ish) I do expect them to eventually reach early VA to mid VA level which is really quiet. (Patch: Diminishing returns level) At that point, when you're so quiet like that it doesn't really matter how much quieter you are because in any event you're only ever gonna be detected via towed array within 5-25 miles; very specific kinds of oceanic conditions. The detection range of the submarine can vary greater but we're definitely on the diminishing side of the returns curve. Even in the US, in terms of boat quieting, Boise LAs aren't that much quieter vs Seawolfs or early-class VAs. The technology to build quiet submarines has really proliferated since the end of the Cold War like CNC machines. China has plenty of those. Knowledge about rubber mounts and stuff. They've been able to mature(?) those from the Han to Shang class. So really all they have to knock out, as far as I know, are independent floating decks (rafting) which aren't that hard to master and once they get that and pumpjet technology down, I would expect them to eventually quiet down to VA-class boats - at least early VA boats by like 2030.

 

[Totoro]

Indeed, those comments did not relate to latest batch of 093.
Actually, I would wager the previous batches of 093 can't simply be divided between the OG variant and later variant. But that there are likely noise differences within the "second batch" as well. I find it unlikely that they kept the internals completely the same while fiddling with the external details as much for almost every new boat of that batch.

 

[LuzinskiJ]

This is just for those who have not seen clear images of the 093B. This picture of the second 093B clearly shows a shrouded propulsor. Whether that is a pump jet or a propeller remains to be determined.

View attachment 131775

This brings up an article that I recall Admiral Ma said a while ago, in it he said rim drives will be on the NextGen Nuclear subs; wonder what happened to that.

 

[ismellcopium]

So the Patchwork interview was in December 2022.

Am I correct in thinking that none of the latest Type-093 (with the shrouded/pumpjet propellor and presumably other improvements) had left the shipyard by this time?

If so, would that mean that Patchwork's assertion of 688i level of quietness applies to the previous Type-093 already in service in 2018?

I thought it did refer to the current iteration 093B? There are numerous posts in this thread throughout 2022 referring to the pumpjet, surely it was well known by then?

 

[THX 1138]

Transcribed manually, it was something like this:

They've actually mastered most of the tech needed for quieting submarines. Type 93 is a legacy submarine that's quite noisy. The original ones, the original 93s, the OG ones, were close to Sturgeon class boats really. (Patch: Yea, they were really bad) Yea they were quite noisy. And the new 93s are apparently decent like LA class. (Patch: 688i-ish) I do expect them to eventually reach early VA to mid VA level which is really quiet.... The technology to build quiet submarines has really proliferated since the end of the Cold War like CNC machines. China has plenty of those. Knowledge about rubber mounts and stuff. They've been able to mature(?) those from the Han to Shang class. So really all they have to knock out, as far as I know, are independent floating decks (rafting) which aren't that hard to master and once they get that and pumpjet technology down, I would expect them to eventually quiet down to VA-class boats - at least early VA boats by like 2030.

Reading that transcription, it seems like "New 093s" refers to the 093B. The podcast was recorded in Dec 2022, and satellite images of the suspected 093B had been circulating since May of that year. The submarines reaching Virginia-level quietness by 2030 was obviously a reference to the 095, not the 093B.

So it sounds to me like they're claiming:

• Type 093 = Sturgeon
• Type 093A = Did not discuss
• Type 093B = 688 -or- 688i
• Type 095 = At least Early Virginia

Their opinions are an interesting contrast from those of Carlson & Wang's in

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for the U.S. Naval War College. By their estimation:

• Type 093 = Victor I
• Early 093A = Victor II
• Late 093A = Victor III (Sturgeon?)
• Type 093B = Sierra I (worse than 688)
• Type 095 = Improved Akula / Akula II (better than 688i, worse than Early Virginia)

 

[cornerodriguez]

Al leer esa transcripción, parece que "Nuevos 093" se refiere al 093B. El podcast se grabó en diciembre de 2022 y las imágenes satelitales del supuesto 093B habían estado circulando desde mayo de ese año. El hecho de que los submarinos alcancen el nivel de silencio de Virginia en 2030 era obviamente una referencia al 095, no al 093B.

Entonces a mí me suena como si estuvieran afirmando:

• Tipo 093 = Esturión
• Tipo 093A = No se discutió
• Tipo 093B = 688 -o- 688i
• Tipo 095 = Al menos Virginia temprana

Sus opiniones contrastan de manera interesante con las de Carlson y Wang en

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para la Escuela de Guerra Naval de Estados Unidos. Según sus cálculos:

• Tipo 093 = Víctor I
• 093A temprano = Víctor II
• Finales del año 093A = Victor III (¿Sturgeon?)
• Tipo 093B = Sierra I (peor que 688)
• Tipo 095 = Akula mejorado / Akula II (mejor que el 688i, peor que el Virginia temprano)

Mi capacidad de lectura no me permite todavía imaginar un informe público de las fuerzas norteamericanas donde señalen que se enfrentan a un adversario claramente superior, aunque sea en un solo aspecto. Creo que degradarían al oficial que lo revisó y a la persona que lo redactó si sus restos pudieran encontrarse en Guantánamo. Como mínimo. ja ja ja