09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[5unrise]

The 09IIIAs weren't launched in the early 2000s, more like the late 2000s/early 2010s.

Relative noise comparisons are getting to a level of granularity that's been done here before and is not that useful.
Just everyone agreeing that new variants and new boats are closing the gap further should go without saying.

I'm just not sure if putting the 093B only on par with the 688i is consistent with that last statement of yours, which as you rightfully point out goes without saying.

 

[Blitzo]

I'm just not sure if putting the 093B only on par with the 688i is consistent with that last statement of yours, which as you rightfully point out goes without saying.

? What are you talking about, and how does that relate in any way to my previous post?

I didn't say anything about 09IIIB and 688i???

 

[ChinaWatcher1]

What is the reason that we are building this much 093B when 095 is going to be a huge jump? Seems like a waste of resources isn't it?

 

[Blitzo]

What is the reason that we are building this much 093B when 095 is going to be a huge jump? Seems like a waste of resources isn't it?

Well, first we don't actually have concrete projections as to just how many 09IIIBs they will build.

That said, if they do build say, more than 10 09IIIBs, it is not unreasonable given that 09IIIB is likely to be lower risk than 09V and can likely enter service faster (partly due to being derived from 09III family and iterated upon recent 09IIIA variants), while still offering useful new capabilities.
If they have a need for a large number of relatively mature, but still meaningfully more capable SSNs than pre-09IIIB classes, then pumping out some 09IIIBs to kick in for the second half of the 2020s rather than waiting for 09Vs to cut their teeth may be wise

 

[5unrise]

? What are you talking about, and how does that relate in any way to my previous post?

I didn't say anything about 09IIIB and 688i???

I was talking to someone else, and then you jumped in. What I said makes sense if you read the post I was responding to.

 

[Blitzo]

I was talking to someone else, and then you jumped in. What I said makes sense if you read the post I was responding to.

I was correcting the time period in which 09IIIA emerged (not early 2000s), and saying that the overall discussion around being too detailed about comparison with other SSNs isn't that useful. I'm not jumping in, I'm criticizing the premise of your reply to him.

Given what he wrote was thinking that "09IIIB would be at least as good as 688i" that's a very reasonable statement and sufficiently vague and broad that there's no reason to dig and push further if it can't be backed up. I'm more confused about why after I suggested comparing it in more detail is not very useful, that you still expressed doubt.

 

[5unrise]

I was correcting the time period in which 09IIIA emerged (not early 2000s), and saying that the overall discussion around being too detailed about comparison with other SSNs isn't that useful. I'm not jumping in, I'm criticizing the premise of your reply to him.

Given what he wrote was thinking that "09IIIB would be at least as good as 688i" that's a very reasonable statement and sufficiently vague and broad that there's no reason to dig and push further if it can't be backed up. I'm more confused about why after I suggested comparing it in more detail is not very useful, that you still expressed doubt.

I accept your correction about the Type 093A - it's something I know but didn't remember clearly in the moment.

I will stick to my position that his opinion is inconsistent with the premise that new variants of the Type 093 is closing the gap over time (a premise you agree on), and therefore I don't accept his opinion. I understand my position may be contrary to your view. That's fine - reasonable people can still have different opinions.

 

[tphuang]

For 09IIIB, I think it is reasonable to say (based on satellite pictures and the various possibly credible models) that they most likely do have a pumpjet, or at minimum a shrouded propeller.

That's fine if you want to say based on satellite photo that it has a shrouded propeller
Like everything else, pumpjet has its own pluses & minuses.
I'm looking to see where the confidence for pumpjet comes from. It seems like there is nothing new here.

Sunnymaxi as always is using superlatives, but saying that six are "already built" is not unreasonable if he is referring to six having been launched.

"Built" to mean "launched" is not irregular use of jargon, and means they are in fitting out, sea trials or in service. Aka they are "in the water".

What is more up for debate is how many 09IIIBs have actually been launched, and our satellite imagery evidence is not as consistent as we would like.

However, saying "it is possible up to six 09IIIBs have been built and are in the water" would be rather reasonable at this stage

Okay, let's use that last part then.

 

[Blitzo]

That's fine if you want to say based on satellite photo that it has a shrouded propeller
Like everything else, pumpjet has its own pluses & minuses.
I'm looking to see where the confidence for pumpjet comes from. It seems like there is nothing new here.

No.
I'm saying -- based on a combination of satellite images, the suspected model of 09IIIB we saw in 2022, and the suspected representative art of 09IIIB in 2023, that it is reasonable for us to say that it most likely does have a pumpjet or shrouded propeller of some sort.

As I said, @sunnymaxi is overly confident and uses superlatives, rather than hedging things with caution and using words such as "likely" or "very possible" instead he makes statements as if they are definitive or confirmed 100% factual.

@sunnymaxi goodness gracious can you stop writing so confidently and introduce a bit of caution and doubt into your posts so you stop making your statements so easy to be criticized?

I accept your correction about the Type 093A - it's something I know but didn't remember clearly in the moment.

I will stick to my position that his opinion is inconsistent with the premise that new variants of the Type 093 is closing the gap over time (a premise you agree on), and therefore I don't accept his opinion. I understand my position may be contrary to your view. That's fine - reasonable people can still have different opinions.

The idea of 09IIIB being "at least 688i" levels of quietening very much fits the definition of closing the gap over time.
I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the idea that 09IIIB might approach early VA levels of quietening, but why is it being even suggested at all where everyone can read it and thus challenge it?
Just because it may be possible doesn't mean it should be stated outright if it's unable to be adequately defended, because that is how ideas become metastasized as if they are credible.
And something like "09IIIB approaching early VA" quietening levels isn't just something that can be thrown out there casually.

 

[5unrise]

The idea of 09IIIB being "at least 688i" levels of quietening very much fits the definition of closing the gap over time.
I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the idea that 09IIIB might approach early VA levels of quietening, but why is it being even suggested at all where everyone can read it and thus challenge it?
Just because it may be possible doesn't mean it should be stated outright if it's unable to be adequately defended, because that is how ideas become metastasized as if they are credible.
And something like "09IIIB approaching early VA" quietening levels isn't just something that can be thrown out there casually.

Truth be told, I have my own reasons to hold that belief - whether they are sufficient to justify it is subjective. However, I will respect your wish to not continue on this conjecture, and listing out my reasoning would not be consistent with that respect. I am keen to end this exchange here, if you are. Alternatively, I am happy to hear anything else you have to say.