09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[gelgoog]

There is no way it is just as quiet as the 688i. Not with the pumpjet propulsion and being made like 40 years later.
It is pretty clear the PLAN has seen the existing nuclear attack submarine gap vs the US and is trying to close it as soon as possible. Just in case the US decides to proceed with its concept to use their nuclear attack submarines to attack Chinese shipping.

 

[Blitzo]

Truth be told, I have my own reasons to hold that belief - whether they are sufficient to justify it is subjective. However, I will respect your wish to not continue on this conjecture, and listing out my reasoning would not be consistent with that respect. I am keen to end this exchange here, if you are. Alternatively, I am happy to hear anything else you have to say.

Look there are a bunch of things that I also have conjecture and views on, but that doesn't mean it is something that should be posted, even on a community like this on SDF.

I'm sure you are aware of the way that information can be spread -- the mere idea of "09IIIB approaching early VA in quietness" just isn't something that should be written at this stage because it cannot be credibly defended if it were to escape outside of this community.


I have a feeling the reasoning that you have are all points that I am probably aware of and would agree with, and in fact it is a belief I also hold as more than a possibility.
That doesn't mean it should be openly written, good god, submarine quietening is one of those big ticket features that are not only highly secretive in nature but also one which until the recent past that the PLAN SSNs have been behind in, and even early VAs are still held as among the quietest of modern SSN classes. So if you want to make that swing publicly, it isn't something that can merely be "reasoned" it is something where there is near irrefutable proof that you can defend to the hilt to convince even skeptics.

That's why I'm saying it shouldn't have even been stated, and "at least as good as 688i in quietening" is very much a reasonable way of protecting the discourse.

 

[tphuang]

No.
I'm saying -- based on a combination of satellite images, the suspected model of 09IIIB we saw in 2022, and the suspected representative art of 09IIIB in 2023, that it is reasonable for us to say that it most likely does have a pumpjet or shrouded propeller of some sort.

As I said, @sunnymaxi is overly confident and uses superlatives, rather than hedging things with caution and using words such as "likely" or "very possible" instead he makes statements as if they are definitive or confirmed 100% factual.

@sunnymaxi goodness gracious can you stop writing so confidently and introduce a bit of caution and doubt into your posts so you stop making your statements so easy to be criticized?





The idea of 09IIIB being "at least 688i" levels of quietening very much fits the definition of closing the gap over time.
I'm not going to dismiss out of hand the idea that 09IIIB might approach early VA levels of quietening, but why is it being even suggested at all where everyone can read it and thus challenge it?
Just because it may be possible doesn't mean it should be stated outright if it's unable to be adequately defended, because that is how ideas become metastasized as if they are credible.
And something like "09IIIB approaching early VA" quietening levels isn't just something that can be thrown out there casually.

I have no idea what you are disagreeing with me about. If you say it most likely has pumpjet or shrouded propeller of some sort, then you can’t be sure it has pumpjet. Because there is a difference between the two

 

[grulle]

This is just for those who have not seen clear images of the 093B. This picture of the second 093B clearly shows a shrouded propulsor. Whether that is a pump jet or a propeller remains to be determined.

 

[Index]

There is no way it is just as quiet as the 688i. Not with the pumpjet propulsion and being made like 40 years later.
It is pretty clear the PLAN has seen the existing nuclear attack submarine gap vs the US and is trying to close it as soon as possible. Just in case the US decides to proceed with its concept to use their nuclear attack submarines to attack Chinese shipping.

Initial speculation that 093Bs are 688i equivalents were based in the pre pump jet early model 093B.

Imho it's hard to estimate since PLAN SSNs are undergoing (large) upgrades from between boat to boat without officially being a different class. We can't know how the internals have changed.

The level of quieting technology between US and China is roughly the same, but in the past, submarine nuclear reactor technology was something US was better at. That said, it's been more than a decade, and China is also building a lot of this particular model, indicating confidence.

 

[ismellcopium]

There is no way it is just as quiet as the 688i. Not with the pumpjet propulsion and being made like 40 years later.
It is pretty clear the PLAN has seen the existing nuclear attack submarine gap vs the US and is trying to close it as soon as possible. Just in case the US decides to proceed with its concept to use their nuclear attack submarines to attack Chinese shipping.

Patch also said it's "certainly no" Seawolf, and it being in between 688i and Seawolf seems quite plausible to me. Submarines are hard. With the Seawolf having intended to be a sort of pinnacle, high-end design, I think if it were approaching Seawolf levels it'd be quite decent & explain the decision to mass-produce.

Although I'm not as familiar with the supposed intra-class 093B upgrades so perhaps that's already outdated.

 

[Derpy]

I was under the impression that sound levels of modern American Nuclear sub's and modern AIP boats had already hit severe diminishing returns to the point that passive sonar detection was already impractical a generation ago. Someone with more info is welcome to correct it but the people in know are usually shy .
If this is the case then sound levels are not that important anymore once you get quiet enough that they have to get lucky to find you with passive sonar.

 

[Blitzo]

I have no idea what you are disagreeing with me about. If you say it most likely has pumpjet or shrouded propeller of some sort, then you can’t be sure it has pumpjet. Because there is a difference between the two

I'm saying we can't be 100% sure and I'm saying that Sunnymaxi's statement was overreaching -- but we still have significant reason to suspect that it most likely does.

It's no different to any other piece of PLA watching where we can not be 100% sure about something but also highly suspect something to be the case.

 

[ChinaWatcher1]

US Media: Chinese navy has an overcapacity problem.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

From the podcast in December 2022 by Blitzo, Patch, Toaster etc, as per quote below:

1:39:00 Toaster mentions original 093 were close to Sturgeon class boats. New 093 are decent, about LA class. (Patch mentions 688i) Expects them to eventually reach early-mid VA noise by 2030. Early VA noise level is already diminishing returns where further quieting doesn't make that much difference.

So what does the bolded "them" refer to? Latter 093Bs, (hypothetical) 093Cs or 095s?