09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

tphuang

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Reading that transcription, it seems like "New 093s" refers to the 093B. The podcast was recorded in Dec 2022, and satellite images of the suspected 093B had been circulating since May of that year. The submarines reaching Virginia-level quietness by 2030 was obviously a reference to the 095, not the 093B.

So it sounds to me like they're claiming:
  • Type 093 = Sturgeon
  • Type 093A = Did not discuss
  • Type 093B = 688 -or- 688i
  • Type 095 = At least Early Virginia
Their opinions are an interesting contrast from those of Carlson & Wang's in
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for the U.S. Naval War College. By their estimation:
  • Type 093 = Victor I
  • Early 093A = Victor II
  • Late 093A = Victor III (Sturgeon?)
  • Type 093B = Sierra I (worse than 688)
  • Type 095 = Improved Akula / Akula II (better than 688i, worse than Early Virginia)
I would be very careful to make these analogies.

First two 093s were launched over 20 years ago and they were very noisy. Probably not much quieter than the late 091s.

093A on the other hand went through at least 4 iterations IIRC spanning 10-15 years, which were among the fastest development of a country in precision manufacturing and material science. At least historically speaking.

So. there is no chance the original 093s were at sturgeon level in noise. It is possible one of the middle 093A iterations were at sturgeon level.

Think about it this way. The last Victor class subs came out 30 years ago and had the same hull diameter as 093A (or maybe even less)

These were considered to be as quiet as the earliest Akulas. Who despite much large hull, weren't quieter than the last Victor III class based on those public charts we've seen.

So it would reason that in terms of noise absorbers and precision manufacturing, China now (for 093B production) is far ahead of what the Soviets had in 1990 when they were finishing off the final Victor III boats. So, I think it's reasonable if you think about things that way, 093B would be quieter than those boats and comparable to something like a mid-tranche Akula class boats (which again based on the charts would be somewhere in the middle of LA class). That's just some rough thought experiment

Again LA class was built were built from mid 70s to mid 90s. That again is a long time frame. So using just phrase like 688 and 688i really doesn't do justice to the likely progressive improvements over 20 years.

LA class is wider than 093B (10m vs 9m on hull diameter) so 093B would have to be noticeably better in noise absorbers and machine noise in order to achieve same level of stealth (since you just can't install as much noise absorbers)
 

MarKoz81

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Think about it this way. The last Victor class subs came out 30 years ago and had the same hull diameter as 093A (or maybe even less)

These were considered to be as quiet as the earliest Akulas. Who despite much large hull, weren't quieter than the last Victor III class based on those public charts we've seen.

No, don't think about it this way. "Earliest Akulas" and "last Victors" aren't comparable. Decibels are not a linear quantity. Sonar physics is not intuitive.

Submarines:

Victor III is either Project 671RTM or 671RTMK, which is an upgraded version of Project 671RTM.

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First boat of RTMK series (K-292) was laid down in 1986 in Leningrad however first boat of the RTM series (K-524) was laid down in 1976 in Leningrad.

Akula is Project 971. (note: "Improved Akula" is a single ship Project 9711 (or 971.1) sometimes described as 971M. Project 971I is not "Improved Akula")

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First boat (K-284) was laid down in 1983 in Komsomolsk-on-Amur and entered service in 1984. 8 submarines total were built in that shipyard and 6 more in Severodvinsk. Akulas number 2 and 3 were laid in both shipyard in 1985 and entered service in 1987-88.

The first Akula was particularly noisier than the subsequent ones because it was a test ship which is why it was decommissioned in 2001, before all others.

In general 671RTMK never got close to the noise level of 971. The improvements on RTMK did not affect the most important design elements which were mostly consistent with 671RTM. There were some improvements in manufacturing, especially using the newly acquired machines but they only went so far. RTMS were manufactured to keep up the numbers and they could be built in Leningrad which was the third nuclear shipyard after Severodvinsk and Komsomolsk serving Northern and Pacific fleets respetively. 971 was both built using new technology and new design principles but it was a new process that took time and never got implemented outside of the two.

971 as a class was all-around quieter at all speeds compared to 671RTMK.

Decibels:

Source:
Morkniga1.jpg

Table:
2018_08_30_19_49_30_Window.jpg

The values in the table are notional reference values above 100dB level i.e. Akula has noise level not of 37dB but 137dB etc, Sturgeon not 45 but 145 etc.

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Decibels are a relative measure not an absolute measure and they describe a logarithmic scale of magnitude. For example 10dB difference in acoustic pressure between sources indicates 10x energy (power) and 3x amplitude differential.

It means that if a source of noise is louder by 10dB it is "three times as loud". However wave energy dissipation affects the distance at which a signal can be detected which is why "relative subjective loudness" which is how humans hear sound is not used in sonar.

Victor I (Project 671) at 172dB was louder than Victor III (Project 671RTMK) at 148dB by 24dB which is more than 20 times. It's similar to the difference in loudness between Akula (Project 971) and Severodvinsk (Project 885). And while in absolute terms a submarine generating 172dB noise will be heard across an ocean - which is how SOSUS was able to detect Soviet submarines at extreme ranges - the relative ability of a Sturgeon (145dB) to detect a Victor I (172db) is somewhat comparable to the ability of the Severodvinsk (117dB) trying to detect the Akula (137dB).


Sonar:

The ability to detect a signal is affected by the level of noise generated by the detecting submarine as well as the background noise level in the medium. I won't cite formulas and explanations because of character limit.

When thinking about sonar you need to think in geometrical rather than numerical terms. Imagine circles indicating dB ranges of source and sensor that overlap or not on a map. Also the most intuitive notion for detecting objects for humans is vision which is a horrible analogy for sound.

These publicly available charts are not reliable. They only indicate some arbitrary notional parameter which is referenced in literature for academic reasons - to explain sonar mechanics, compare different acoustic solutions etc.

The actual noise level of a submarine is not a single value but a series of values measured in different frequencies. The single value usually refers to low frequency noise that is used to test long range detection capabilities of passive sonar. But this is not how submarines use sonar in regular operation. Sonars search (now: automatically) through entire ranges, use libraries. Noise changes depending on speed as well as the water characteristics.

Those notional "noise levels" are nowhere near the amount of data that is necessary to make a claim on detectability which is what matters. Even something as simple as having a sonar with greater sensitivity can improve the situation when you can reduce speed to cut down own noise to detect your target.

If you can detect a submarine traveling at 15 knots from 200 miles but can't when it reduces speed to 5 knots then what good is it if your search area changes by tens of miles in all directions with each hour?

Do you know how Soviet submarines were being detected in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and how detection methods and tactics evolved? It's an entire field of engineering which underwent very radical change.

And that's all beside the point of understanding actual missions and tactics that submarines use which is very much not what you read/watch in "The Hunt for the Red October" or similar entertainment. Those ideas were shaped by the experiences in the 60s and 70s which were very different compared to later era. It was the period of very significant gap in capabilities between USN and Soviet navy - not only in terms of technology but also fleet structure - as well as a period of very intensive innovation in sonar. It's like trying to apply WW2 dogfighting in Battle of Britain to 1990s air combat over Iraq.

So yes, a 09III can in theory reduce its referential noise level to within 5dB above 688i and more if equipped with a pump-jet. But what of it? What does it solve exactly? What's the point of pointless discussions?

Anyway, this is clearly a waste of time...
 

Derpy

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To get some perspective lets remember the original type 093 was laid down in 1994!
This is Shanghai in 1994
And this is Shanghai today
That is 30 years but if you look at development it is more like advancing 80 years when compared to the west.

I think the current subs being launched having the same name is very confusing (perhaps intentional), we know hardly anything of the inside of these and when even the outer hull have changed perhaps they should be thought of as a completely new class.

There is a similar overlap in time with the 052 destroyers and the 093 subs but no one is even thinking of them in the same league despite sharing model name.
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What we can perhaps learn from the destroyer development is that the PLAN did low volumes of 1-2 ships trying out new ideas and only when they had a modern competitive design with the 052D did they start cranking them out after 2014.

If current 093 launches are correct then we can assume they hit a similar milestone with the 093 around 2020 or slightly after unless they had some other reason for the dramatic rise in production which i find unlikely. It makes little sense "mass producing" something as expensive as a Nuclear submarine if it is not competitive. Even if they thought a conflict with the U.S was near that money would be much better spent on other things then noisy very expensive submarines that takes a relative long time to build..

TLDR - If they were not good the PLAN would not buy them in bulk.
 

tphuang

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I'm actually not sure why you continue to write such long posts and then say it is a waste of time.

I've never said noise level is one value. It would be quite silly to say this. My posts were to help people think about this topic. If you don't like it, feel free to write more of your own stuff.

I also never said anything about what's the importance of 093 being at a certain level. That's a separate topic. Again, feel free to enlighten us if you want to. I have talked about it on this thread in the past and it can probably be found quite easily.

Now, I don't have access to acoustic signatures, so I just use this public one provided by ONI. That's what I base my comments on. Whether the last batch of Victor III is actually stealthier than earliest Akula is something I wouldn't have access to. But it's a good thing for the point of discussion for people on this forum to see the few sources that are in public realm
acousticc+signatures+US+v+Russia.jpg
 

THX 1138

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Unfortunately, noise charts are maddeningly inconsistent. Here is another chart from the ONI's World Wide Submarine Challenges 1996:

ONI 2.jpg

On this particular chart, the Improved Victor III is noisier than the Sturgeon SSN 637. But on the other chart, the Improved Victor III was equal to the Los Angeles SSN 688. There are just too many ways to interpret the acoustic signature of a submarine. A submarine that's considered quieter than average at 18 knots could also be considered noisier than average at 6 knots.

The 1996 chart above also shows the ONI's original projection for the Type 093, when the sub was still under development.
 
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Index

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To get some perspective lets remember the original type 093 was laid down in 1994!
This is Shanghai in 1994
And this is Shanghai today
That is 30 years but if you look at development it is more like advancing 80 years when compared to the west.

I think the current subs being launched having the same name is very confusing (perhaps intentional), we know hardly anything of the inside of these and when even the outer hull have changed perhaps they should be thought of as a completely new class.

There is a similar overlap in time with the 052 destroyers and the 093 subs but no one is even thinking of them in the same league despite sharing model name.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What we can perhaps learn from the destroyer development is that the PLAN did low volumes of 1-2 ships trying out new ideas and only when they had a modern competitive design with the 052D did they start cranking them out after 2014.

If current 093 launches are correct then we can assume they hit a similar milestone with the 093 around 2020 or slightly after unless they had some other reason for the dramatic rise in production which i find unlikely. It makes little sense "mass producing" something as expensive as a Nuclear submarine if it is not competitive. Even if they thought a conflict with the U.S was near that money would be much better spent on other things then noisy very expensive submarines that takes a relative long time to build..

TLDR - If they were not good the PLAN would not buy them in bulk.
China also has ability to buy at least the Improved Akula class, as Russia sells those to even much less trusted allies. Arguably Severodinsk class as well, but that would be pure speculation, although I don't see Russia being able to resist if China insisted it conditionally.

And as we saw with the Flanker platform, China has no pride issues when it comes to using originally foreign licensed platforms, if the platforms bring a needed capability.

Despite that, there is 0 interest from the Chinese undersea branch to discuss such sales. From that, mass production of new boats and the proven capabilities in quieting tech China has on SSKs, we can draw a fairly accurate conclusion that modern Chinese SSN at least mirror modern Russian SSN in capability, if not slightly above.
 

para80

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Russia has never sold Akula to anyone. They leased one to India and are mulling leasing another one. However Indian capacity to operate them remains very limited and relies to drastic degrees on Russian support.
 

snake65

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Russia has never sold Akula to anyone. They leased one to India and are mulling leasing another one. However Indian capacity to operate them remains very limited and relies to drastic degrees on Russian support.
The AUKUS terms of non-proliferation also make Australia to rely on UK and USA in order to operate their boats.
 
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