071 LPD thread

[foxmulder]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

People believe these type of "leaks", "rumors", "quotes" about PLA because past showed that almost all the time they turned out to be true

These ships look very similar to me from pictures. For 071, we have nothing but pictures so Mysterre you can write 10,000 words assay but everyone here including you are just eye-balling.

 

[Mysterre]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

People believe these type of "leaks", "rumors", "quotes" about PLA because past showed that almost all the time they turned out to be true

These ships look very similar to me from pictures. For 071, we have nothing but pictures so Mysterre you can write 10,000 words assay but everyone here including you are just eye-balling.

If this rumor turns out to be true, I will have no problem with that. But let's not call a rumor an official PLAN announcement. And if you don't want to read a wall of text, don't read it, but it also means you lose the privilege of dismissing it out of hand.

We are definitely all eye-balling to a certain extent, but GE does not eyeball, and when a photo is revealing, it's revealing. The 071 is about 5 ft longer and 5 ft narrower than the SA, meaning the 071 is smaller by this measure alone. Add to that the fact that the forward superstructure on the 071 is positively anemic compared to the same forward superstructure on the 071, and it becomes obviuos to me that without something more definitive than GE and photographic evidence, such as an actual official announcement by the PLAN, I'll go with the baseline hypothesis. This is the heart of the scientific method, in which a paradigm shift requires an accumulation of evidence that exceeds the previous countervening evidence. This Fox Mulder "I want to believe" type approach makes for a good TV series, but not for any rational evaluation of new evidence (no deliberate reference to your username intended).

 

[delft]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

In the table from Global Security popeye shows in #1070 the length and beam of 071 and SA are nearly the same. They use similar engines but those of 071 give some 15% more power. The ships are designed for virtually the same purpose so the shape will be very similar. Displacement is so proportional to draft. SA claims a 2 kts higher speed than the Whitby class at 22 kts. Is it reasonable to suppose that 071 has a lower displacement than SA and an even higher speed ( I presume some standard speed at some standard displacement, at any rate the same conditions for both classes ), or a slightly higher displacement at the same 22 kts or an even higher displacement at 20 kts. Our estimate of the displacement must depend on our expectation of the standard speed used or the other way round.
What Mysterre is your expectation of that displacement and the corresponding standard speed?

 

[dingyibvs]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

Mysterre, here's why people give credence to the 28000t displacement:

1) The PLA almost never officially release parameters of their weapons systems, so words from PLA officers are as good as it gets and they're almost always accurate. If a PLAN officer said it was 28000t, that automatically becomes by far the most accurate estimate. That estimate WILL be used by everyone who seriously follows the PLA as the starting point for their own analysis.

2) As for our own analyses, we're all eyeballing it, we're all estimating. None of us have presented our own analyses as the truth, but merely as an explanation of how the 28000t figure may be true. Since as mentioned above, the words from PLA officers is as close to being an accurate official release as possible, then as long as the figure given is reasonable, then it'll be accepted. You're like the people who said the first grainy photos of the J-20 are mock-ups or whatnot. No, those grainy photos themselves don't mean much, just like our own deductions based on e.g. engine power vs. speed vs. size don't mean much, but when it's corroborated by "big shrimps" on Chinese boards, or "rumors of rumors" if you prefer, then it'll be accepted as truth until proven otherwise.

Like it or not, past experiences have proven that it's the most accurate way of analyzing the PLA. You're doing yourself a huge disservice if you dismisss those "rumors of rumors" about the PLA as nothing more than, well, rumors of rumors.

 

[Mysterre]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

In the table from Global Security popeye shows in #1070 the length and beam of 071 and SA are nearly the same. They use similar engines but those of 071 give some 15% more power. The ships are designed for virtually the same purpose so the shape will be very similar. Displacement is so proportional to draft. SA claims a 2 kts higher speed than the Whitby class at 22 kts. Is it reasonable to suppose that 071 has a lower displacement than SA and an even higher speed ( I presume some standard speed at some standard displacement, at any rate the same conditions for both classes ), or a slightly higher displacement at the same 22 kts or an even higher displacement at 20 kts. Our estimate of the displacement must depend on our expectation of the standard speed used or the other way round.
What Mysterre is your expectation of that displacement and the corresponding standard speed?

I don't have any expection of standard speed besides somewhere in the range of 20-25 knots, which is pretty much standard for LPD's. Like I said though, you shouldn't give too much credence to that "20 knots" number. After all, it's possible one of us random fanboys picked that number out of the sky and put it in print. An estimated speed is an estimated speed, meant to indicate nothing more than: "this ship is expected to move approximately as fast as most other ships of this class".

Mysterre, here's why people give credence to the 28000t displacement:

1) The PLA almost never officially release parameters of their weapons systems, so words from PLA officers are as good as it gets and they're almost always accurate. If a PLAN officer said it was 28000t, that automatically becomes by far the most accurate estimate. That estimate WILL be used by everyone who seriously follows the PLA as the starting point for their own analysis.

2) As for our own analyses, we're all eyeballing it, we're all estimating. None of us have presented our own analyses as the truth, but merely as an explanation of how the 28000t figure may be true. Since as mentioned above, the words from PLA officers is as close to being an accurate official release as possible, then as long as the figure given is reasonable, then it'll be accepted. You're like the people who said the first grainy photos of the J-20 are mock-ups or whatnot. No, those grainy photos themselves don't mean much, just like our own deductions based on e.g. engine power vs. speed vs. size don't mean much, but when it's corroborated by "big shrimps" on Chinese boards, or "rumors of rumors" if you prefer, then it'll be accepted as truth until proven otherwise.

Like it or not, past experiences have proven that it's the most accurate way of analyzing the PLA. You're doing yourself a huge disservice if you dismisss those "rumors of rumors" about the PLA as nothing more than, well, rumors of rumors.

Nope. When those photos came out I already suspected that this was the real deal. You never heard a peep out of me saying this wasn't. The J-20 is an entirely different story from the displacement of the 071. The whole world and its mother had been expecting the imminent debut of the J-20. Everybody and his mother had already written articles about the J-XX despite having never seen it. The Pentagon's Annual Report to Congress had been talking about it for years. Now let's turn to The Displacement of the 071 Saga: you've got one single report of someone who heard from someone who heard from a sailor. That's it. Everything else points to a smaller 071, including the photographic and GE evidence. I'm prepared to believe the 28,000 at some point if some other corroboration for this number appears, but not at this time.

You are not running a very convincing argument here, you pretty much is saying that you refuse to accept figures given by the PLAN, and in the 054A case even with photographic evidence, then you expect others to take you seriously?

And BTW, regarding this point, what photographic evidence are you referring to? I have not seen any photographic evidence indicating that some kind of sino-VLA is currently in service with the PLAN, that placard included. Perhaps your Chinese is better than mine. Go ahead and indicate which characters on that sign indicate there is a sino-VLA on that 054A, currently, sometimes, or even EVER.

 

[hmmwv]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

I do not refuse to accept figures given by the PLAN, I refuse to accept as the Bible a report given by a person who heard from someone else who allegedly heard that a sailor allegedly told him a number of 28,000 tons. You are trying to equate this to being as reliable as a report or a news clip that you and I can read or watch with our own eyes. It is not the same and you know it. In this case you are relying on third hand testimony regarding the displacement of the 071 and elevating it to the level of an official announcement.

And BTW, regarding this point, what photographic evidence are you referring to? I have not seen any photographic evidence indicating that some kind of sino-VLA is currently in service with the PLAN, that placard included.

Sounds like you are not being consistent here, you don't believe the displacement figure is official PLAN announcement because it's not from official sources that all of us can see, that's fine. But in the 054A case it IS given by PLAN and all of us have seen the plaque yet you still dispute it's credibility. In short you will only believe whatever you believe, and anyone disagree with you is wrong.

Since you continue to refuse to engage in courteous and rational discussion this will be my final reply to you, and I suggest others do the same.

 

[Mysterre]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

Sounds like you are not being consistent here, you don't believe the displacement figure is official PLAN announcement because it's not from official sources that all of us can see, that's fine. But in the 054A case it IS given by PLAN and all of us have seen the plaque yet you still dispute it's credibility. In short you will only believe whatever you believe, and anyone disagree with you is wrong.

I see that you are refusing to quote the characters on that 054A sign that confirm that a sino-VLA is in service with the PLAN. That is because you know full well there are no characters on that sign that confirm that a sino-VLA is is service with the PLAN. YOU in fact are the one refusing to engage in courteous and rational discussion here. I issued this same challenge in the 054A thread, and what I got was spindoctoring upon spindoctoring of assumptions based on what the sign ACTUALLY says, which is that "this VLS has the ability to launch SAM's and ASW rockets." Like I said before, what you spin from that quote is your business, which may or may not have any relevance to reality. But here you are using your own spinned interpretation of that sign to huff and puff and get all indignant just because I didn't spin the same interpretation out of that sign that you and the other fanboys did.

Since you continue to refuse to engage in courteous and rational discussion this will be my final reply to you, and I suggest others do the same.

This is just getting plain ridiculous. And this also sounds like "I have no rational arguments left in my repertoire to make an effective response so I will take my leave". No problem, man.

 

[dingyibvs]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

Look, are you saying that the 28000t displacement is impossible? Because as long as it's possible, even if improbable, the rest of us will believe what PLAN sailors say.

It's useless for any of us to keep arguing, because the key difference between us is how much weight we give to PLAN officers' words. We give it a lot of weight, you don't, it's simple as that. No amount of arguing will change that fact, and judging on past history, it's unlikely that the PLA/N will ever release information official enough to convince one side to switch beliefs. Therefore, there is no point in continuing this discussion and let's just agree to disagree.

Back to the previous topic of discussion, can we at least agree now that the 071 is close enough in size to the San Antonio class that the PLAN likely won't consider building a new, larger class of LPD's any time soon?

 

[Blitzo]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

Look, are you saying that the 28000t displacement is impossible? Because as long as it's possible, even if improbable, the rest of us will believe what PLAN sailors say.

It's useless for any of us to keep arguing, because the key difference between us is how much weight we give to PLAN officers' words. We give it a lot of weight, you don't, it's simple as that. No amount of arguing will change that fact, and judging on past history, it's unlikely that the PLA/N will ever release information official enough to convince one side to switch beliefs. Therefore, there is no point in continuing this discussion and let's just agree to disagree.

Back to the previous topic of discussion, can we at least agree now that the 071 is close enough in size to the San Antonio class that the PLAN likely won't consider building a new, larger class of LPD's any time soon?

It looks like 071 production has stopped at 3 units and the next class of large amphibious assault ship will be the LHD. Of course quite a few of us would've been surprised that 071 only stopped at 3, but if it really does displace 27-28k (mysterre's objections noted), the decision seems somewhat more logical.

 

[no_name]

re: PLAN Type 071 LPD & its Landing Craft

Some close-up photos of 071. Hope hasn't already been posted before: