Well, if they intend to build at two places, and have four in service by 2020, starting in 2015. That would be a significant build rate for these large vessels. Producing one every 2 1/2 years at the two yards.
But then, they say to build ten more in the next five years? One per year per yard? Sorry, unless they double the yards, they are not going to do it.
That would be, four in the first five years, and then ten more in the next five. As I say, unless they are building at more places, I just do not see it.
Then fifteen more in the next five after that? Seriously? Again, now 1.5 units of these 13,000 ton vessels per year per yard?
These are pure fan boy numbers. As I say, unless they first go to like four yards in the second five year span and then like five yards in the third five years. I just do not see them building thirty of these vessels and having more of them than they do 52C and 52D combined.
I also doubt they will end up having 30 055s, however the build rate is not completely... unfeasible.
Now, hear me out. Consider that JNCX has two main building halls, and each building hall can launch an 052D about one every 6-8 months, at longest. (So theoretically, JNCX can launch two 052Ds every 6-8 months, at most, assuming both halls begin fabrication of their hulls at the same time. In reality, construction will probably be staggered)
From 2015-2020, building the first four 055s, both JNCX and DL could each be expected to launch four 055s once every 1.5 years assuming both yards have two production lines building, and if both production lines begin fabrication at the same time. So JNCX will be using both building halls, and DL will be have two production lines as well. (I use 1.5 years because 055 is a larger ship than 052D and also 055 is a new ship, so the shipyards would be less experienced and less efficient with the lead ships)
So by 2020, they should be experienced and acquainted with the construction process (so I'm going to reduce 1.5 years to 1 year, which is about fair), and if both JNCX and DL have two production lines going each (so a total of four production lines), they could potentially launch four per year -- keeping in mind that 055 is a larger ship than 052D, and 052D takes about 6-8 months to launch from any meaningful shipyard fabrication.
Now, more realistically, if two 055 production lines are active at JNCX and DL will be staggered, say, building hall 2 at JN will begin building an 055 three months after building hall 1 starts, and the same for DL. However, that still leads to an ultimate average of about 4 hulls per year.
So the big question is how many construction lines of 055 will be active at once (i.e.: how many the PLAN are willing to afford). If four are active, then the numbers might be possible.
Also important is how long it will take to go from steel cutting to launch, and how long they take from launch to commissioning.
As to the specs, unless they are far more accurate than this build rate I have to feel they are suspect too.
Yeah, the author of this write up says he got it from various insiders and cites Pop3 as a source. However without actually seeing the posts that is being cited, combined with the sheer detail and eyebrow raising dimensions that are being claimed, I can't help but feel doubt as well.
However in its defence, I do feel that the dimensions, armament, performance listed, are not unrealistic.
