052/052B Class Destroyers

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

antiterror13 said:

Wowwww, so PLAN is very confident with the design now, why so many being built at the same time .. is PLAN preparing a war or expecting a war anytime soon .. let's say within 5 years.

But it is very impressive indeed, hopefully the QC is up to the very high standard

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PLAN have lots of obsolete, outdated and in desperate need to be replaced Destroyers. Frigates are stacking up pretty good at the moment, but Destroyers still have lots to replace. Modernisation doesn't necessarily mean war. You have more to loose with a strong economy so you need to protect it with force.

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

HKSDU said:

PLAN have lots of obsolete, outdated and in desperate need to be replaced Destroyers. Frigates are stacking up pretty good at the moment, but Destroyers still have lots to replace. Modernisation doesn't necessarily mean war. You have more to loose with a strong economy so you need to protect it with force.

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I believe China is expecting reasonably big naval war in the near future (5-10 years), may be Vietnam. It would be a nice breakfast

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

antiterror13 said:

I believe China is expecting reasonably big naval war in the near future (5-10 years), may be Vietnam. It would be a nice breakfast

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Err being prepared for contingencies and preparing for a war carry slightly different connotations.
Like HKSDU said, modernization doesn't necessarily mean war, and given growing chinese economic interests around the globe and investment into carriers we shoul expect, if anything, an expansion in overall surface combatants. Doesn't mean they're planning to get into a fight with anyone.

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

To add onto my post. Better to have something but not use it, compared to needing something but not having it.
(within logic of course)

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

antiterror13 said:

I believe China is expecting reasonably big naval war in the near future (5-10 years), may be Vietnam. It would be a nice breakfast

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china will not launch a war in the next 2 or 3 decades. They are fully busy developping their economy.
saying a war with vietnam will be a nice breakfast is an error: NEVER underestimate your ennemy

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

Scratch said:

Seems like the PLAN now is happy with the individual assets. Now they want to put all those together. When all those crews on 054A & 052C are trained up and the ships have been duly tested it's about the right time to start training with / escort all the 071s being built as well as the new carrier currently undergoing testing.
Is there a plan that will see all these things come together at a point in the not so distant future? Looks like it to mee.

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You mean like in gulf of Aden?

antiterror13 said:

Wowwww, so PLAN is very confident with the design now, why so many being built at the same time .. is PLAN preparing a war or expecting a war anytime soon .. let's say within 5 years.

But it is very impressive indeed, hopefully the QC is up to the very high standard

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antiterror13 said:

I believe China is expecting reasonably big naval war in the near future (5-10 years), may be Vietnam. It would be a nice breakfast

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What is wrong with you?
they are building a lot of ships, because the entire freaking navy is archaic. Do you think it's a simple matter of navy getting ships -> navy fighting wars?

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

tphuang said:

Do you think it's a simple matter of navy getting ships -> navy fighting wars?

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LOL! Exactly Tphuang.

The PLAN is building a modern navy, with many new capabilities. They are replacing many, many old archaic vessels.

If they indeed end up with 8 Type 052Cs and 16 Type 054As, they will have built up the following modern major surface combatants:

08 - Type 052C DDG
02 - Type 052B DDG
02 - Type 052 DDG
04 - Sovs
02 - Type 051C DDG
01 - Type 051 DDG
----
19 Modern DDG

02 Type 054 FFG
16 Type 054A FFG
----
18 Modern FFG

04 Type 071 LDP

01 PLAN Carrier (maybe a second by 2016)

It will take three or four years, but we can probably ad:

24 - Type 056 OPVs by 2016

In addition in the same time frame you may have:

16 - Type 039 SSK
08 - Yuan SSK
12 - Kilo SSK
----
36 More modern convetnional subs

06 Type 093 SSN
04 Type 091 SSN
----
10 Nuclear powered attack subs

That's a total of 112 or more modern major combatants being incorporated in a realtivel few years time.

Now, in order to train and come up to speed operationally, the PLAN will spend a long time, many years integrating and becoming proficient with these vessels. Particularly with the new Aircraft and Amphibious operations. and supporting them It's not something they are going to learn in 6 or 12 months. It will be more like 6-8 years to get to the point of proficiency where they would be ready for any kind of major conflict.

In all probablility, what they are really doing is building a strong modern navy geared towards protecting their national interests in the hopes of avoiding such a conflict...and yes, the Anti-pirating missions allow them to practise and display that very thing.

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

tphuang said:

You mean like in gulf of Aden?

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Well, actually I think the Guld of Aden patrols are more like an unplanned, but still welcomed training and TTP development opportunity. Without those piracy patrols I believe shipbuilding in China wouldn't look really different now.
Were I wanted to get at was that it appears China will have it's modern major surface combatants ready for fleet escort duty right around the time when Varyag can start serious training / limited operations. The current badge of destroyers being built will probably be inducted into the fleet and crews trained up in maybe a year or one and a half. By then there's enough 054As for escort as well as independet patrol missions. I guess Varyag could by then be ready for some kind of IOC. With the 071s' current status, larger, modern amphib operations might be possible in a similar time frame. I'm definitely not saying PLAN is working towards a specific military engagement here.
But right now it looks like those major milestones will all be reached at almost the same time. Mabybe I'm seeing things that are not really there, but perhaps there may be a long planed coming of age for the PLAN in 2013 or so displaying a CBG & a seperate PHIBRON sailing around.

On that thought, could you imagine that shipbuilding might slow down around that period for PLAN to learn and induct lessons with current ship designs and than start a new built cycle on those lessons? Or do you believe that (mass) production of 054B & 052D will seamelessly follow those current ships in the short term?

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

Scratch said:

Well, actually I think the Guld of Aden patrols are more like an unplanned, but still welcomed training and TTP development opportunity. Without those piracy patrols I believe shipbuilding in China wouldn't look really different now.
Were I wanted to get at was that it appears China will have it's modern major surface combatants ready for fleet escort duty right around the time when Varyag can start serious training / limited operations. The current badge of destroyers being built will probably be inducted into the fleet and crews trained up in maybe a year or one and a half. By then there's enough 054As for escort as well as independet patrol missions. I guess Varyag could by then be ready for some kind of IOC. With the 071s' current status, larger, modern amphib operations might be possible in a similar time frame. I'm definitely not saying PLAN is working towards a specific military engagement here.
But right now it looks like those major milestones will all be reached at almost the same time. Mabybe I'm seeing things that are not really there, but perhaps there may be a long planed coming of age for the PLAN in 2013 or so displaying a CBG & a seperate PHIBRON sailing around.

On that thought, could you imagine that shipbuilding might slow down around that period for PLAN to learn and induct lessons with current ship designs and than start a new built cycle on those lessons? Or do you believe that (mass) production of 054B & 052D will seamelessly follow those current ships in the short term?

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Well, 054A got more orders due to its performance in the gulf of Aden.

The building cycle actually did slow down from 2008 to 2010 while they were getting ready for this second wave of 052C and the mass production of 071 and such.

There is a huge human element to consider when thinking of PLAN modernization. I wrote the following somewhere else today
"The training process for these ship is pretty hard to gage. They are attempting to recruit more college grads to be able to operate the newer hi-tech ships, but it's not as easy as one would think (even with the excessive number of Chinese college grads). Similar to America, the lifestyle of being a sailor spending a lot of time away from home isn't exactly ideal for most Chinese people. Especially with the entire male/female imbalance problem in China, a lot of possible recruits would worry about not being able to find a wife with that kind of lifestyle."

Who really knows how long the software part of this modernization will take to catch up to the hardware expansion. They are going for somewhat of a 1-to-1 replacement, but probably will have more ships just because they are establishing a blue water fleet too.

The other part to think about is the economic conditions. The Chinese economy is going to face problems in the next few years, which means smaller budget increases for PLA. Can they still expand in the same way when you consider that they have to bear the cost of a few carriers?

re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer

That crew regeneration issue is an interesting one, never thought of it before. So is the economy side. With a military becoming ever more sophisticated and development more expensive, growth most likely will have to slow at some point.
When the current order of FFGs & DDGs is finished shortly, maybe they'll built one or two 054B / 052D as new tech evaluation vessels serving besides the current ships doing "normal" fleet duty. And then start a new built cycle a bit down the road.
We might see pretty soon I guess, should that latest destroyer in the shipyard really turn out do be different from the Cs being built. Just beyond the hollidays.