The Philippines better be careful. Mainland China is not the only rival claimant in the SCS. The ROC, aka the renegade province of Taiwan has a slightly bigger claim than the PRC in the SCS, but is largely similar in many areas. PH nearly provoked a shootout with the ROC in 2013 when its patrol vessels shot and killed a Taiwanese fisherman. My friend in Taiwan told me that many Taiwanese (presumably the Blue aligned ones) wanted the ROCN to start shooting back at PH vessels.
Before that incident between the ROC and PH, there was a clash between Filipino pirates and the Malaysian police and military. The Filipino pirates invaded their claimed piece of the Malaysian Borneo state of Sabah. The Filipino side kept largely quite throughout the whole affair. So I kinda feel that they were giving their quiet consent and blessing to these pirates.
Dragging Australia into the SCS is gonna become a sticky point with Indonesia, another major claimant in the SCS. Australia has its own maritime disputes with Indonesia. So things are gonna be much more messy than PH bargains for.
PH has adversaries in the SCS other than PRC. That is what the US and Australia greatly underappreciates. If PH decides to grab a piece of the Scarborough Shoals, its not just the PRC that it is provoking. It will also provoke the ROC. The DPP and English vegetable might stay silent, but the Blue camp is gonna be very upset. If PH again tries to claim parts of Malaysia, or invite Australia into areas that are too uncomfortable for Indonesia, then its gonna mess up ASEAN.
