Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[hkky]

Losers find ways to excuse and explain their loss while winners just win. Don't flap your gums if you can't or even afraid to back it up.

The worst China could have done when they learned of this news was treat it as a nothing burger. Just expressed that they don't have a problem of Pelosi visiting their territory for as long as she's not there to advocate for a SEPARATIST (don't use INDEPENDENCE BECAUSE IT EVOKES THE YEARNING TO BE "FREE" which illicit positive feedback from even the most neutral sheeps in the world). Re-affirm with confidence and without equivocation that there's only but ONE CHINA, AND THAT TAIWAN IS PART OF CHINA. Then the ministry spokesperson can remind the media, especially foreigners to the text of all the 4 Communiques that America signed with China. Then say that as we can all see, it's the Americans who doesn't seem to or unwilling to abide by the rules based order that they love to talk about. They love to talk about sovereignty for others but wants China to violate China's sovereignty whenever it suits their political needs....then affirm what China's government goals for its people which is peace, prosperity, protection of its culture, sovereignty, and the restoration of its country under one single banner.

Instead, what we usually get and hear from the foreign ministry is this talk of China being a victim this or China means no harm bla bla...like holy snitzel dude, you're a power, act like one, talk like one. Don't shy on being tagged as being a wolf warrior, instead freaking embrace it.

China's media outreach is weak because it lacks conviction, confidence, and determination to spread China's success story under the leadership of the CPC. Why shy from the truth? The west loves to use Deng to beat up on Xi's image when it was Deng who crushed the hanjians, and liberalnazis at Tiananmen Square in 1989, last time I checked he was a commie, who fought against the Japanese and fought in the Civil War against the right wing KMT with Mao Zedong.

It's people like you that demands instant satisfaction that would doom China. Fortunately, Chinese leadership has longer sights than you and can hold water. They take deliberate actions based on calculations rather than emotion.

China's outreach is weak, there is no doubt about it but that is due more than a centuries of domination by the west, you can't expect things to change overnight.

As other stated already, this will not be the end of the story. The situation on the ground will change permanently.

 

[solarz]

If a bunch of illiterate tribal Taliban can sense America is falling, I really find it hard to believe Xi and the CPC can't see that.

You guys had me almost convinced that armed reunification was imminent.

Now that emotions have calmed somewhat, I think most people realize that peace is always preferable to war. The difference between China and Russia or the Taliban is that China can afford to have peace.

I think a lot of people were expecting Xi to emulate Putin, and are disappointed when that didn't happen. After so many US provocations lately, I can't really blame them. Unfortunately, I think we're gonna have to come to terms with the fact that the Chinese leadership is sticking to their slow-and-steady strategy, and they're not going to deviate from that whatever the provocations.

Well, I guess that's not really unfortunate. It's actually quite fortunate.

 

[lube]

I see people losing their shits because Pelosi's plane wasn't intercepted.

People should be paying attention if there's any attempt by the PLA to shift the status quo in the near future.
Something they'll start doing regularly from now on.

I would argue regular military exercises within 12nm of Taiwan certainly qualifies.

 

[go4sdff]

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MLRS rockets fired by PLA Eastern Command in Fujian province towards the island of Taiwan

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sounds like a total waste of money ...

 

[Chish]

Am an Indian and not her follower or anything. Two points. She is bold and gutsy, no doubt about it. Second as I said in my earliest post, China is no where ready to take on the US militarily.

The Chinese posters here are generally quite arrogant, and forget that the US has been numero uno since 1945. And the pronouncements by the Chinese official spokespersons only made things worse. It will take time to reach a truly multi-polar world.

For those like me sitting out and watching, it was a nice, tense, entertaining drama. And the best thing about it, no lives were lost.e

Those who are trolling, shaming and LOL at China for not doing anything irrational/irresponsible are actually very disappointed that China and US didn't go kinetic this time round. But still too early to conclude.
As you have correctly observed, unification by military action is not the best option at this point in time. China will continue to set the rules to her advantage.

 

[solarz]

Upon closer analysis, the military exercises are a good response and could have been the secret Chinese plan (or negotiated under table with Biden) all along

Conducting military exercises within territorial waters is no small deal

Huh what? Your post is time-stamped at 1pm EST. Pelosi landed around 22:30 Taiwan time, which is around 10:30 am EST.

You're telling me she stayed all of 2 hours?

 

[Petrolicious88]

China will almost certainly wait until US openly supports Taiwan independence..

US dose not support Taiwan independence because the status quo benefits the US.

Most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo too. They do not want to be part of China over fear of mainland’s political system.

In another 20 years, most of the old guards that have family ties to Mainland will be dead. Forget about winning Taiwan through economic integration or cultural ties. That’s not the reasons they don’t want unification.

So unification by force is the only card left.

 

[escobar]

Lol

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554550529891749895

 

[niwashi]

Honestly, unlike those simple-minded idiotas on Twitter, r/China, Facebook and Youtube, this is yet to be over. This is especially true with the military exercise zones being set up around Taiwan by the PLA from Aug 4-7.

There are several types of key movements that I believe we should look out and monitor in the coming days (and weeks) to see if there is any indication on significant responses against Taipei and Washington DC by Beijing:

1. Movements of the US Navy warships - In particular, those CVNs and LHDs in the Pacific Ocean, especially in the Western Pacific. Are they going to leave the areas close to Taiwan immediately after Pelosi departed Taiwan for Japan/South Korea? Or would they be lingering around Taiwan for unspecified amount of time in order to observe the PLA exercise around Taiwan?

2. Movements of the civilian RORO ships - I remember one or few of the guys here has posted regarding the movements of several RORO ships that are outside of their scheduled routes. Where are they now? And for how long do those RORO ships stay around the Fujian area?

3. Movements of PLAGF and PLARF troops, equipment and vehicles - There are lots of video footages showcasing PLAGF and PLARF equipment and vehicles being transported around Fujian province that has been surfacing yesterday (Aug 2). Problems are - When are those footage being taken? Where are those equipment and vehicles now? Where are they getting moved to?

(It is also worthy of note that I have seen some comments regarding the video of PLAGF armoured vehicles driving in the streets and freeways of Xiamen, claiming that those footage was taken as early as July 22. Could this mean that there are already troop, equipment and vehicle movements before July 31-Aug 1?)

4. Movements of PLAN warships - Related to those exercise zones announced by the PLA right after Pelosi's plane has landed in Taipei Songshan Airport. Honestly speaking, I don't think the plan was drawn up right after Pelosi has arrived at Taipei - It was drafted up much earlier than that. So the question is - How many of the PLAN warships would be leaving port? And what is their status of activity and alert in the coming days?

5. Movements of ROC military - The authorities of Taiwan has already raised the alert status of their military to the near-highest, if not the highest level on Aug 1. Recall that they already cancelled all leaves of their troops to "prepare for war". Would this alert status be dropped after Pelosi's plane departed Taiwan? If not, how long would the alert status be maintained? And what is their mobilization status?

6. Movements of higher-ranking government officials near the regions, and in Beijing - If there is some sort of unusual movements of high-ranking government official convoys being spotted, then it could mean something. Although, this is a very hard task to be done reliably, I'm afraid.

7. Movements of assets and finances belonging to China, both at home and abroad, especially in the Western Hemisphere - If there is significant pullout of Chinese investments, selling off stocks and US Treasury Bonds, among many other things, this should tell something as well.

8. Etc.

Well I, as a Chinese, think you are right. Therefore I might convince more folks back home that:

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

I think the question you should ask is this: is China stronger now vis-a-vis its opponents (India, US, etc) in all the examples you listed, or weaker?

The status quo is that China is getting stronger whether militarily or economically each day vs. its opponents. What should its opponents do in this scenario? Do whatever they can do disrupt the status quo, of course. What should China do? Do whatever it can to preserve the status quo.

Every decision should be made with sound logic, not emotions. The west will continue to disturb the status quo, and each attempt should be studied as it's own case. In Huawei's case, it galvanized the Chinese semi industry like no subsidy ever could or would, so it didn't need a response. In the Pelosi case, it'll normalize higher level visits by foreign officials, so it does warrant a response.

The response also should be tailored to each situation. The provocation in this case may have come from the US, but the response should be directed toward Taiwan. Taiwan is the main prize here, and if the US is seen to be unable to offer any support beyond PR stunts, then it'd be an even bigger PR hit to the US as well.

Let's wait to see what happens first. IMO there'll be something more obviously substantial coming from China than military exercises. I think if they didn't plan to physically stop Pelosi from visiting and had no follow on actions planned then the Chinese government wouldn't have broadcasted the event so widely. I think Xi is trying to drum up support for something big, I just don't know what yet.

Agreed with the points you made. I am going to refrain from making comments while am still quite annoyed that Pelosi wasn't harassed with her visit to Taiwan, China. And the fact that she's able to pen an OP-ED for her visit just elevated my anger I have against this insulting move made against China.

Sometimes, I wish that Xi had Duterte's craziness lol..