Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[ZeEa5KPul]

Now that you mention it, it is not only a measured response, it's seen as relatively feeble and weak. They won't be paying much attention. Otherwise this would've been considered an incredible escalation.

I dislike analyzing the psychology of the chimpanzees on social media (in as much as they can be said to have a psychology), but the manic joy they're feeling is a reaction to their fear. They understand perfectly well that China is incomparably stronger than it was the last time something like this happened, so when they feel they've gotten away with doing the same thing again, it's an intense release from their fear.

But the mania will fade and the fear will accumulate again, faster as China gets stronger. Incidentally, that fear is why you see the proliferation of Coming Collapse of China cults, the most virulent recent one being Zeihan's. It's why any minor issue China faces is blown up beyond any sane proportion. These people are very frightened.

 

[Biscuits]

So what's the consensus on when the PLA should launch an amphibious assault on Taiwan? I think the PLA should hold off on an amphibious assault until they get air and naval supremacy. Although, I have no idea how long that would take. I think it would take about 1 month, however, so smarter than me could correct me if I'm wrong.

While the idea of President Xi addressing the Chinese nation that he will begin armed reunification would be an amazing wet dream, I don't think it will happen for now. My will expectation for Xi really is an increase in the military budget, military exercises(will be done soon), and taking back some of the smaller islands.

China will almost certainly wait until US openly supports Taiwan independence.

Strength wise, its likely they can do it now. It would be more comfortable when there's a numerical parity in stealth fighters and superiority in stealth bombers/drones though.

As long as the gap is widening between China and America, China can delay as long as they like.

For the current situation which isn't serious enough to warrant immediate military resolution but is still highly serious, Xi could easily play the victim card for now and use it to get through actions that would otherwise be seen as escalatory, such as increasing spending, simulating a blockade/landing or even take back some small islands.

 

[Faustshadowdancer]

Because they just don't know what to do, they are unable to do those things.They don't have the kind of skills needed to do those things.

I remember ready like 5 years ago that the MoFA was basically a place where people are sent out to pasture lol. Perhaps that’s why they are so incompetent. They’re too busy trying to win domestic approval with their grandstanding. They need an overhaul and start treating this stuff seriously.

 

[escobar]

It's not that bad. Zhao Lijian and Chen Weihua are great in their own way and is better than the soft ass Tang Jiaxuan days. It's not in the threats it's in how they're delivered. North Korea is taken seriously despite not following up on 99% of their threats because in the times they do it's devastating.

Maybe a WW2 steam turbine ship.

No it is bad and Bad. I Can understand PLA don't want to make drastic move now for multiple reasons but it IS unacceptable that the PR dudes who should be should sharp and effective Can be so incompetent. PLA need Time but you don't need Time to be great at PR. There are competent PR dude in CN, find them.

 

[Lokos]

The west is trying to get under china’s skin. Trying to get china to overreact like an amateur. You know what? It’s working. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s all they talk about at quad or nato summits. Who pokes china in the eye and when. China needs to ignore these games. China needs to shut up unless you can put your money where your mouth is. Until then, hide your strengths and bide your time.

 

[Suetham]

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MLRS rockets fired by PLA Eastern Command in Fujian province towards the island of Taiwan

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[ACuriousPLAFan]

Does anyone knows the exact timing of Pelosi departing from Taipei? Is it 5:30pm local time today (August 3rd)?

 

[horse]

Now that you mention it, it is not only a measured response, it's seen as relatively feeble and weak. They won't be paying much attention. Otherwise this would've been considered an incredible escalation.

Yeah, exactly.

This I think is very menacing. I thought we just see some show of force, and that will be the end of this episode, but no. The PRC just ratcheted it up two extra levels.

Let's look at it this way.

Pelosi's visit, was just what they called in the old days, creeping independence kind of move.

This PRC exercise almost right on Taiwan, is like practicing the game over kind of move.


A question for anyone reading this message.

If you were running things, and we had a choice to escalate the situation (if we choose to), which direction should we escalate it?

Should we escalate it towards Pelosi?

Should we escalate it towards the Taiwan question?

My feeling is that in a general principle, we should escalate to something important.

 

[hkky]

Something to consider is this, if you were Xi, who’s life goal has been the reunification of Taiwan. If you were ready and about to finally pull the trigger to embark on this task, would you really want to do it according to someone else’s timetable and be seen to be doing it as a knee-jerk reactionary response?

This will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will be damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion even if she dies a fiery death.

For an event of this magnitude, I would expect Xi to personally make a speech to address the nation tomorrow, or maybe even a few days later( which would conveniently be after Pelosi leaves). If Armed Reunification is really to finally kick off, Xi will want to personally make his case and announce it to the Chinese people and the history books.

That will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will ge damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion.

This does not exclude the possibility of the announced exercises going as scheduled. That could well be a final show of force to leave Taiwan in no doubt as to the PLA’s capabilities and Xi will make one final offer to Taiwan to surrender.

The status quo has certainly changed but I do not see China put out the ultimatum at this time. There is too much at stake on China's rise and it simply cannot afford a significant distraction at this time, not when Taiwan is not going anywhere and there is time to settle at much lower cost in the future.

Most people characterize this as a lose for China at the moment, but in past crisis China has always took advantage of the situation and always gets something out of it.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Now that you mention it, it is not only a measured response, it's seen as relatively feeble and weak. They won't be paying much attention. Otherwise this would've been considered an incredible escalation.

I think they will be watching extremely carefully, its a way for the US to add an extra variable to their diplomatic calculus.

How fast can China organise a complete blockade of the Island, that will inform the US how alert their forces in Japan must be or how close they need to keep their carrier fleets at Taiwan sides. At least that is something i would get out of the data.