Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Lime]

I want to see what China will do next step in diplomacy.
Don't know what US will do to balance the situation or even deteriorate it.

 

[horse]

It's a comprehensive test of the whole system of warfare against Taiwan. This is a great opportunity to test it - without Pelosi's visit, exercises this extensive and threatening would have been an unprovoked escalation. In this context, it's a measured response.

Yeah exactly.

Pelosi opened the door for this.

I think it is pretty menacing. It is like some guys playing with guns in front of your house.

Yet, the PRC is weak, and has no PR.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Just compare Ukraine 2014 and 2022. Russia with good PR walks in, makes retaking land look like 5D chess cakewalk. Russia with bad PR has to kill and lose thousands for 10 km of gain.

It's more like between 2014 and 2022 Ukraine had 8 years to prepare. In 2014 Putin took Crimea which had Russian troops stationed on it and no Ukrainian troops worth mentioning.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It's a comprehensive test of the whole system of warfare against Taiwan. This is a great opportunity to test it - without Pelosi's visit, exercises this extensive and threatening would have been an unprovoked escalation. In this context, it's a measured response.

Now that you mention it, it is not only a measured response, it's seen as relatively feeble and weak. They won't be paying much attention. Otherwise this would've been considered an incredible escalation.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It's a comprehensive test of the whole system of warfare against Taiwan. This is a great opportunity to test it - without Pelosi's visit, exercises this extensive and threatening would have been an unprovoked escalation. In this context, it's a measured response.

Furthermore, it's an indication that these are just exercises, not an invasion. An actual landing on Taiwan would be preceded by weeks of air and naval warfare. That amphibious forces are mustering this early is an indication that they're going to train.

 

[JewPizza]

I believe total amount amphibious forces that can be gathered immediately is around 30-35k, but a bigger issue is support in terms of fuel and munition and air, airbases, mechanics, munition stockpiles etc.

So what's the consensus on when the PLA should launch an amphibious assault on Taiwan? I think the PLA should hold off on an amphibious assault until they get air and naval supremacy. Although, I have no idea how long that would take. I think it would take about 1 month, however, so smarter than me could correct me if I'm wrong.

You'll just have to temper your expectations. Pres. Xi is a very patient man unlike most of us here including myself who's been ranting or wanting some form of a more aggressive action against Pelosi. But we'll see. I just don't want this version of China to be like the Song dynasty.

While the idea of President Xi addressing the Chinese nation that he will begin armed reunification would be an amazing wet dream, I don't think it will happen for now. My will expectation for Xi really is an increase in the military budget, military exercises(will be done soon), and taking back some of the smaller islands.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Most people don't know the details of how strong various militaries are. They only know about recent wars. The Soviet Union was respected because of the second world war and Russia has inherited that respect. But they clearly don't deserve it. Vietnam earned respect through its successful defence against France and the US, but it wouldn't be very accurate to describe Vietnam's armed forces today as particularly powerful in the region. Reputation like this can be powerful, but it's only based on history, not today's facts. And you can only change it by fighting a war. Let's hope China won't need to fight a war to conquer Taiwan

China fought the Korean War directly shooting at US and South Koreans, pushed them back, sacked Seoul... What now?

China fought India, even took territory from them, both in 1962 and even in 2020. There were photos and videos of Indian POWs being humiliated and blindfolded. What now? You know how the Jai Hinds operate.

PR and perception of resolve is very important.

 

[dasCKD]

How many Times i have to Say this: fire the whole Propaganda unit and the MOFA dude and hire a New generation of competent propagandists.

This. So much this. This a thousand times over. If the Chinese naval and aviation engineer core was as inept as their propaganda and diplomatic cores, China would be sailing the seas with a Tohatsu outboard motor duct-taped to a junk and flying through the air in biplanes with camo scribbled on with a permanent marker.

 

[escobar]

Remains to be seen. But why didn't they make this move as soon as China heard of the news that was leaked by FT? Or perhaps they did but I am just not aware of it (someone can correct me on this).

When Xi did the same dog and pony show in Doklam, the Indians became emboldened and Ladakh happened. When Trump did his trade war, and the wars America under his leadership made what did Xi do? Huawei has been hammered to oblivion in terms of their smart phone business, Tiktok was almost sold to a U.S. based company. Has there been any moves where China was on the attack or doing the initiative or has it always been China on the reaction side. When the covid-19 first flared up officially in Wuhan, China what did China under Xi do that could have made the Wuhan virus narrative less palatable in the consciousness of the world's population? Nothing. Everything on the surface seems just endless reaction to American led provocation after the other.

This latest episode, why couldn't China's diplomatic corps took the initiative and call for an emergency meeting at the UN prior to Pelosi's visit to raise the f..ng profile of this case at the possible highest level because this is about a sovereign countries sovereignty which is supposedly recognized by 180 countries in the UN. Why not put those western countries on the spot under the media spotlight if they recognize Taiwan as an independent country or not because if those countries ambassadors publicly affirm that Taiwan is indeed part of China and that Beijing is the SOLE LEGAL government of China then what the U.S. is doing along with her vassals are nothing short of breaching a country’s sovereignty. Which is the SAME legal argument that these western hypocrites are using against Russia. They either put up or shut up where they stand on Taiwan.

Use the very "rules based order" that America loves to crow on them and see how they squawk. But no, they can't even freaking do that, instead they go on this high minded moralistic talk where no one freaking listen when you're not feared.

Because they just don't know what to do, they are unable to do those things.They don't have the kind of skills needed to do those things.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

This. So much this. This a thousand times over. If the Chinese naval and aviation engineer core was as inept as their propaganda and diplomatic cores, China would be sailing the seas with a Tohatsu outboard motor duct-taped to a junk and flying through the air in biplanes with camo scribbled on with a permanent marker.

It's not that bad. Zhao Lijian and Chen Weihua are great in their own way and is better than the soft ass Tang Jiaxuan days. It's not in the threats it's in how they're delivered. North Korea is taken seriously despite not following up on 99% of their threats because in the times they do it's devastating.

Maybe a WW2 steam turbine ship.