Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Nothing going to get ugly.

The Americans already ran away with Pelosi.

The Taiwan military, won't do anything.

In 1996, Clinton mobilized two aircraft carriers because the United States was not happy about those live fire exercises the Chinese were doing.

In 2022, these Chinese exercises are far greater in scope and more threatening. Where is the US military? Ran away with Pelosi.
 

RedMetalSeadramon

Junior Member
Registered Member
What if this naval exercise was a pretext to actual invaison and they are actually surrounding Taiwan in the cover of naval exercise? Can china accumulate 100k + soldier for naval invaison in 2/3 days ?
I believe total amount amphibious forces that can be gathered immediately is around 30-35k, but a bigger issue is support in terms of fuel and munition and air, airbases, mechanics, munition stockpiles etc.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
if the earlier posts were correct, theyre sending APCs with earlier unrevealed APS on them, which would be a weird move for just "training". It's not like 99.9% of China's population would care about such a thing if the exercises were just a PR stunt. There is some deeper reason that causes fully combat ready vehicles to be sent in large number to Fujian.
Remains to be seen. But why didn't they make this move as soon as China heard of the news that was leaked by FT? Or perhaps they did but I am just not aware of it (someone can correct me on this).

When Xi did the same dog and pony show in Doklam, the Indians became emboldened and Ladakh happened. When Trump did his trade war, and the wars America under his leadership made what did Xi do? Huawei has been hammered to oblivion in terms of their smart phone business, Tiktok was almost sold to a U.S. based company. Has there been any moves where China was on the attack or doing the initiative or has it always been China on the reaction side. When the covid-19 first flared up officially in Wuhan, China what did China under Xi do that could have made the Wuhan virus narrative less palatable in the consciousness of the world's population? Nothing. Everything on the surface seems just endless reaction to American led provocation after the other.

This latest episode, why couldn't China's diplomatic corps took the initiative and call for an emergency meeting at the UN prior to Pelosi's visit to raise the f..ng profile of this case at the possible highest level because this is about a sovereign countries sovereignty which is supposedly recognized by 180 countries in the UN. Why not put those western countries on the spot under the media spotlight if they recognize Taiwan as an independent country or not because if those countries ambassadors publicly affirm that Taiwan is indeed part of China and that Beijing is the SOLE LEGAL government of China then what the U.S. is doing along with her vassals are nothing short of breaching a country’s sovereignty. Which is the SAME legal argument that these western hypocrites are using against Russia. They either put up or shut up where they stand on Taiwan.

Use the very "rules based order" that America loves to crow on them and see how they squawk. But no, they can't even freaking do that, instead they go on this high minded moralistic talk where no one freaking listen when you're not feared.

Xi is far more harsher to his domestic enemies than he is to the foreigners whom have caused far more lasting damage to his country that he serves. So what is Xi going to do when AUKUS focus finally comes into play? Would he do something when ASIAN nato somehow by some miracle happens?

The leadership of China needs a Mao level balls of bravery.
The PLA is about to go with live ammunition within 12nm close to Taiwan's main island. US military still had to leave behind Pelosi before entering Chinese airspace.

At the very least, just going off what China publicly says and assuming they don't have any surprises, Beijing is going to severely shorten it's usual movement distance from the mainland side of the median line to more or less nothing. This means much higher reaction time in the future and means diplomatic resolution may have been scrapped or at least heavily downgraded.

The American official propaganda line is clear. They view Chinese as culturally soft, unable to pose a threat due to "degeneracy" compared to the superior US spirit, just like the Germans in WW2 thought about the Allies. How to dispel this? When the time come to launch the decolonization of the West, it will be clear to Americans how much they'll die to soft and degenerate enemy soldiers, and the perception will dispel itself. Until that day, China doesn't really need to change US perceptions, only increase it's own and friendly nations' readiness.
No one is asking or least of all in China mainland advocating for decolonization of the west because that's dumb, stupid, and waste of Chinese lives. Their primary interest is first and foremost to see the country restored as one with all its missing pieces together as one. And for the country to be as prosperous as possible that can and will trade with everyone at every level. That's it.

This decolonizing the west smacks of imperialism that has never been part and parcel of the Chinese DNA. The Chinese ain't the Mongols nor the yellow people ascended from that branch.

If the West wants to disintegrate let them kill each other till their hearts content. I just feel that Chinese diaspora who are residing in the west are the one's advocating for this quixotic vision. Sorry it ain't going to happen, it's not in the Chinese interest to do so nor would it have any support from the Chinese Mainland people.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Having bad PR for China will embolden the secessionists. Having bad PR will mean that the US politicians and public thinks that China will be a pushover. Having bad PR will mean that India, the UK, Australia, and the EU will feel emboldened to get more and more aggressive with China in the coming years. China can have the best military in the world by 2030, but if the public perception is that China's weapons will fall apart like plastic toys and that Chinese soldiers will turn tail and run the moment America comes knocking then that WILL raise the risk of Taiwan officially seceding AND raise the risk of America getting kinetically involved AND raise the risk of other nations getting involved which WILL mean more Chinese lives being lost.

If China's PR and posture is good enough, the takeover of Taiwan can happen without a single bullet being fired. If it isn't, then China will be wading through what probably will be the bloodiest war in human history.

Worrying about PR is not a waste of time. Every single country or actor that China fails to intimidate through the perception of Chinese prowess and resolve is a price that the Chinese people will instead have to pay for with their treasure and blood. PR matters, even if the PRC would rather it didn't. Anyone who says otherwise is, quite frankly, just coping.
Just compare Ukraine 2014 and 2022. Russia with good PR walks in, makes retaking land look like 5D chess cakewalk. Russia with bad PR has to kill and lose thousands for 10 km of gain.

PR saves lives. If a single Taiwanese infantryman fires off a single more ATGM and kills or cripples a single more tank, the lack of PR has now cost you 1 tank ($1 million), 3 dead or wounded soldiers, and more future negative PR.
 

escobar

Brigadier
We already have a massive crisis on our hands. China's military gets to be more aggressive, and the noose is tightened ever-tighter around Taiwan's neck. Militarily, this is a disaster for America and the secessionists.

PR wise, however, this is a disaster for the PRC. Not only is the international public laughing at China, even people on the mainland are outraged at how tepid the response as been so far. Whilst China might manage to salvage a PR victory in the near future, that will depend more on signaling than anything and I think most western (read: dominant) media will be clowning on China and downplaying how significant intruding on Taiwanese near-shore areas is.

This is a persistent problem with the PRC's utter ineptitude at the propaganda space. As long as they don't even have a competent propaganda mouthpiece like Russia, Qatar, or the UK does, their signaling will always be spun by the western media sources in a way that is completely outside of their control.
How many Times i have to Say this: fire the whole Propaganda unit and the MOFA dude and hire a New generation of competent propagandists.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Remains to be seen. But why didn't they make this move as soon as China heard of the news that was leaked by FT? Or perhaps they did but I am just not aware of it (someone can correct me on this).

When Xi did the same dog and pony show in Doklam, the Indians became emboldened and Ladakh happened. When Trump did his trade war, and the wars America under his leadership made what did Xi do? Huawei has been hammered to oblivion in terms of their smart phone business, Tiktok was almost sold to a U.S. based company. Has there been any moves where China was on the attack or doing the initiative or has it always been China on the reaction side. When the covid-19 first flared up officially in Wuhan, China what did China under Xi do that could have made the Wuhan virus narrative less palatable in the consciousness of the world's population? Nothing. Everything on the surface seems just endless reaction to American led provocation after the other.

This latest episode, why couldn't China's diplomatic corps took the initiative and call for an emergency meeting at the UN prior to Pelosi's visit to raise the f..ng profile of this case at the possible highest level because this is about a sovereign countries sovereignty which is supposedly recognized by 180 countries in the UN. Why not put those western countries on the spot under the media spotlight if they recognize Taiwan as an independent country or not because if those countries ambassadors publicly affirm that Taiwan is indeed part of China and that Beijing is the SOLE LEGAL government of China then what the U.S. is doing along with her vassals are nothing short of breaching a country’s sovereignty. Which is the SAME legal argument that these western hypocrites are using against Russia. They either put up or shut up where they stand on Taiwan.

Use the very "rules based order" that America loves to crow on them and see how they squawk. But no, they can't even freaking do that, instead they go on this high minded moralistic talk where no one freaking listen when you're not feared.

Xi is far more harsher to his domestic enemies than he is to the foreigners whom have caused far more lasting damage to his country that he serves. So what is Xi going to do when AUKUS focus finally comes into play? Would he do something when ASIAN nato somehow by some miracle happens?

The leadership of China needs a Mao level balls of bravery.

No one is asking or least of all in China mainland advocating for decolonization of the west because that's dumb, stupid, and waste of Chinese lives. Their primary interest is first and foremost to see the country restored as one with all its missing pieces together as one. And for the country to be as prosperous as possible that can and will trade with everyone at every level. That's it.

This decolonizing the west smacks of imperialism that has never been part and parcel of the Chinese DNA. The Chinese ain't the Mongols nor the yellow people ascended from that branch.

If the West wants to disintegrate let them kill each other till their hearts content. I just feel that Chinese diaspora who are residing in the west are the one's advocating for this quixotic vision. Sorry it ain't going to happen, it's not in the Chinese interest to do so nor would it have any support from the Chinese Mainland people.
I never talked about China itself going on the offensive, however, the truth of the matter is that US has been invading 1 country after another, and so, at some point, countries will ask for China's help to decisively stop that.

That is not imperialism, and China (and USSR) did this once already in WW2 when they were forced to respond. The invader countries (Japan and Germany) had to be put down for the sake of everyone else. It is part and parcel of Chinese and communist DNA to oppose violent countries that try to change the world order into their own hegemony.

I'm not gonna comment that much on that topic because it isn't relevant to China's immediate defense of Taiwan, its a question for much later.

I'll just wait to see how China's countermoves pan out, and I'm pretty excited about it. Hoping to see more updates about the buildup and where it leads.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
if the earlier posts were correct, theyre sending APCs with earlier unrevealed APS on them, which would be a weird move for just "training". It's not like 99.9% of China's population would care about such a thing if the exercises were just a PR stunt. There is some deeper reason that causes fully combat ready vehicles to be sent in large number to Fujian.
It's a comprehensive test of the whole system of warfare against Taiwan. This is a great opportunity to test it - without Pelosi's visit, exercises this extensive and threatening would have been an unprovoked escalation. In this context, it's a measured response.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
You'll just have to temper your expectations. Pres. Xi is a very patient man unlike most of us here including myself who's been ranting or wanting some form of a more aggressive action against Pelosi. But we'll see. I just don't want this version of China to be like the Song dynasty.

That's true. The bear is slow to react and anger but seems to seize opportunities when they present themselves. Hong Kong would be a good example.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Did the PRC close the Taiwan Strait?

A few weeks ago, the Chinese told the Americans that the PRC considers the Taiwan Strait their own.

China should close it to any unfriendly countries like Putin says.

There will not be a war ... yet.

Clearly we are moving that way.

I think the potential timetable is the next election in Taiwan.

Depending how that goes, then something I thought I would never live to see might actually happen.

:oops:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top