Damn it comrade, you deserve a lot credit.
I gave up on those people a long time ago.
At least you still keeps tabs on them, and keep it real, and funny too!
LOL!
Thanks!
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Damn it comrade, you deserve a lot credit.
I gave up on those people a long time ago.
At least you still keeps tabs on them, and keep it real, and funny too!
LOL!
Thanks!
This depends on too many factors. Ideally you want to reduce the chance of outside intervention by going fast, but want to reduce casualty when landing by having as much enemy assets demolished as possible. If you attack too fast and try too many things at once it results in coordination problems, should planes be used to support ground forces or strike enemy airfields or intercept enemy planes? are the planes coming towards us the enemy or returning friendlies? this are all factors to be considered.
This is why i suggests taking one of the islands, preferably a strategically valuable one like Penghu or perhaps Taiping rather then Mazu or Jinmen, shortens the strategic distance.
It seems, but I checked and they are not. Unless it's the same releases filmed by other people who just made it available.
I think that is the only scenario where all of this makes sense.
1- Use harsh rhetoric to lure the US to cross the redline in a very public way. China could just let it go with its normal complaints, it didn't.
2- Slowly escalate the situation. This stage will start in 40 hours if this is China's plan.
3- Attack Taiwan (serving the initial harsh rhetoric too)
In any other case, this is a public relations disaster. Very few American knows what One China is. Very few Americans know China never threatened to stop Pelosi from landing. Taiwanese will be emboldened.
I feel like people and illuminaries in China like Eric Li should be able to work in the foreign ministry and apply his skill set that he's gained from his venture capitalist business and media business like Yoku, and his superb debating (
Unless China has mastered the art of teleportation, no.
The effect of "PR" on any of these situations is slight. The Pentagon is well aware that Chinese weapons won't fall apart like plastic toys. Even if that's untrue and some idiot like Trump goes to war against China because he believes the bad PR, there's nothing China can do about it except fight. It's too bad, but how you're depicted in enemy propaganda is one thing you can't do anything about - just be ready to put him in the ground if things go hot.
Suggestions welcome.
Time is on China's side. The US Navy is about to enter a steep decline in ship numbers as its early Aegis cruisers and destroyers and LA class submarines built during the 80s growth spurt are retired. Ten years from now the balance of power may not be on the US's side anymore.
The exercises right in front and sometimes inside Taiwan's "territorial" waters are highly significant for China if it manages to normalise them. Basically Pelosi came, (excuse my words) took a dump on China's face and left, that's it.
But what about China you ask? Well, after this brief touch and go from Pelosi, now China will forever do exercises even inside Taiwan's "territorial" waters! This is very important.
Apart from the operational military benefits, China now will also be able to easily suffocate Taiwan's lines of communication at a moment's notice. During a normalised "exercise" it can suddenly start using amphibious forces to land to Taiwan very quickly. It can cut lines of communications for ports, naval supplies etc. It can also use pressure tactics to drive Taiwan crazy with constant annoying military exercises, or even provoke Taiwanese forces to fire the first shot etc.
Even more, it can now "punish" Taiwan whenever a delegation visits Taiwan. More exercises, getting more of Taiwan's teritorial waters, more aggressive training profiles, become more disruptive to the local economy etc.
We can conclude that China will now get another vector for pressuring Taiwan, the sea. If before China was only using the ADIZ incursions to pressure Taiwan, now it will also do from the sea with violating "its" waters.
So overall, I consider Pelosi's visit to Taiwan as huge PR soft power win for the US (and a PR disaster for China). The US can now use this meeting as a "kicking-the-door" and allow its puppets to send their own delegations
On the other hand, China gets (assuming the exercises get normalised) a huge strategic win for hard power. I really wouldn't like this trade if I was Biden right now(does he even remember that China is a country?)
This broadly follows the current trajectory of the US and China. The US tends to focus more on soft power benefits and China is the opposite, it is laser-focused on gaining hard-power.
The only big question remaining now is:
Will China normalise these military exercises. If yes, then for China, this debacle of Pelosi's visit was more than worth the trouble, its a big win for China. If no, well, its a big loss, take the L, go home and lick your wounds for another 5 years before coming back again
But what about China you ask? Well, after this brief touch and go from Pelosi, now China will forever do exercises even inside Taiwan's "territorial" waters! This is very important.
Apart from the operational military benefits, China now will also be able to easily suffocate Taiwan's lines of communication at a moment's notice. During a normalised "exercise" it can suddenly start using amphibious forces to land to Taiwan very quickly. It can cut lines of communications for ports, naval supplies etc. It can also use pressure tactics to drive Taiwan crazy with constant annoying military exercises, or even provoke Taiwanese forces to fire the first shot etc.
Even more, it can now "punish" Taiwan whenever a delegation visits Taiwan. More exercises, getting more of Taiwan's teritorial waters, more aggressive training profiles, become more disruptive to the local economy etc.
We can conclude that China will now get another vector for pressuring Taiwan, the sea. If before China was only using the ADIZ incursions to pressure Taiwan, now it will also do from the sea with violating "its" waters.
So overall, I consider Pelosi's visit to Taiwan as huge PR soft power win for the US (and a PR disaster for China). The US can now use this meeting as a "kicking-the-door" and allow its puppets to send their own delegations
On the other hand, China gets (assuming the exercises get normalised) a huge strategic win for hard power. I really wouldn't like this trade if I was Biden right now(does he even remember that China is a country?)
This broadly follows the current trajectory of the US and China. The US tends to focus more on soft power benefits and China is the opposite, it is laser-focused on gaining hard-power.
The only big question remaining now is:
Will China normalise these military exercises. If yes, then for China, this debacle of Pelosi's visit was more than worth the trouble, its a big win for China. If no, well, its a big loss, take the L, go home and lick your wounds for another 5 years before coming back again
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Everybody is being impatient after Pelosi touched down, but the large-scale military exercises are a significant escalation and the next 2-3 days will answer a lot of questions.
We only saw 2 days of troop movements and already there are hundreds of tanks, transports, and armored vehicles in full combat trim waiting at the docks. Some of them should be waiting in ROROs. If this is partial mobilization, then are we going to find out what full mobilization look like? If we continue to see equipment being moved this week then the popcorn can stay out.
The 8/4-8/7 exercises seem like a weak response because it'll be after Pelosi's left, but Pelosi's visit is really just a catalyst for something bigger. What most foreign observers missed is that exercises already started last night. The AOs outlined for 8/4-8/7 are effectively more of a 3-day blockade rather than a 3-day exercise.
Let the Americans have their meaningless PR victory. In material and military terms, Taiwan is much closer to reunification than it has been in the last 70 years, and it will only get closer. I'd like to see them "normalize" these visits after the PLAN normalizes an amphibious assault fleet permanently lurking off the Taiwan coast.
We only saw 2 days of troop movements and already there are hundreds of tanks, transports, and armored vehicles in full combat trim waiting at the docks. Some of them should be waiting in ROROs. If this is partial mobilization, then are we going to find out what full mobilization look like? If we continue to see equipment being moved this week then the popcorn can stay out.
The 8/4-8/7 exercises seem like a weak response because it'll be after Pelosi's left, but Pelosi's visit is really just a catalyst for something bigger. What most foreign observers missed is that exercises already started last night. The AOs outlined for 8/4-8/7 are effectively more of a 3-day blockade rather than a 3-day exercise.
Let the Americans have their meaningless PR victory. In material and military terms, Taiwan is much closer to reunification than it has been in the last 70 years, and it will only get closer. I'd like to see them "normalize" these visits after the PLAN normalizes an amphibious assault fleet permanently lurking off the Taiwan coast.
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