Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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tank3487

Junior Member
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Such invasion would require huge time to be prepared. The Whole Ukraine crisis had slowly unfolded for almost half a year. Iraq's invasion had required several months of troops movements, too.

Plus, China do get stronger with each year. So there is little point to escalate it for China now.
 

daifo

Major
Registered Member
Seems many here and where ever are coping or celebrating the lack of action against Nancy's aircraft by the PLA. But it seems the editorials of a few western newspaper like wp, ft, nyt , etc still think it was a stupid stunt since it helps Xi domestically, diminish's China's will to help in Ukraine /other causes, provides reason for China to become more kinetic in the future etc

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
One potential flash point is if Taiwanese warships ignore the fire warning and enter these zones and accidents happen. I hope they have a backup plan for that because they sure didn't have one for their PR.
Oh, this is a different story entirely. Killing Pelosi would have been tremendously escalatory, but if any RoC or USN sticks its nose where it doesn't belong, that nose is getting chopped off.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
The status quo has certainly changed but I do not see China put out the ultimatum at this time. There is too much at stake on China's rise and it simply cannot afford a significant distraction at this time, not when Taiwan is not going anywhere and there is time to settle at much lower cost in the future.

Most people characterize this as a lose for China at the moment, but in past crisis China has always took advantage of the situation and always gets something out of it.
Losers find ways to excuse and explain their loss while winners just win. Don't flap your gums if you can't or even afraid to back it up.

The worst China could have done when they learned of this news was treat it as a nothing burger. Just expressed that they don't have a problem of Pelosi visiting their territory for as long as she's not there to advocate for a SEPARATIST (don't use INDEPENDENCE BECAUSE IT EVOKES THE YEARNING TO BE "FREE" which illicit positive feedback from even the most neutral sheeps in the world). Re-affirm with confidence and without equivocation that there's only but ONE CHINA, AND THAT TAIWAN IS PART OF CHINA. Then the ministry spokesperson can remind the media, especially foreigners to the text of all the 4 Communiques that America signed with China. Then say that as we can all see, it's the Americans who doesn't seem to or unwilling to abide by the rules based order that they love to talk about. They love to talk about sovereignty for others but wants China to violate China's sovereignty whenever it suits their political needs....then affirm what China's government goals for its people which is peace, prosperity, protection of its culture, sovereignty, and the restoration of its country under one single banner.

Instead, what we usually get and hear from the foreign ministry is this talk of China being a victim this or China means no harm bla bla...like holy snitzel dude, you're a power, act like one, talk like one. Don't shy on being tagged as being a wolf warrior, instead freaking embrace it.

China's media outreach is weak because it lacks conviction, confidence, and determination to spread China's success story under the leadership of the CPC. Why shy from the truth? The west loves to use Deng to beat up on Xi's image when it was Deng who crushed the hanjians, and liberalnazis at Tiananmen Square in 1989, last time I checked he was a commie, who fought against the Japanese and fought in the Civil War against the right wing KMT with Mao Zedong.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Seems many here and where ever are coping or celebrating the lack of action against Nancy's aircraft by the PLA. But it seems the editorials of a few western newspaper like wp, ft, nyt , etc still think it was a stupid stunt since it helps Xi domestically, diminish's China's will to help in Ukraine /other causes, provides reason for China to become more kinetic in the future etc

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That’s because it is a stupid stunt that helps very little, and I fully agree. But the PR handling on the Chinese side made sure that it does not help China.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
I think that is the only scenario where all of this makes sense.
1- Use harsh rhetoric to lure the US to cross the redline in a very public way. China could just let it go with its normal complaints, it didn't.
2- Slowly escalate the situation. This stage will start in 40 hours if this is China's plan.
3- Attack Taiwan (serving the initial harsh rhetoric too)
In any other case, this is a public relations disaster. Very few American knows what One China is. Very few Americans know China never threatened to stop Pelosi from landing. Taiwanese will be emboldened.
Dont think its quite proportional. Of course, China might go ahead anyways if they feel the power balance is overwhelming for them.

China did deliberately inflame the situation, for reasons we don't know yet. But there doesn't seem to be enough troops to take all of Taiwan.

I think soon Xi will address the nation, denounce unprecedented American aggression, announce increases in budget and investment into the military industry.

At around the same time, the blockade exercises will kick off, with potentially several tens of thousands involved. ROC will be busy scrambling to make sure the exercise doesn't lead to troops actually landing on the island.

In the end of the exercises, some of the troops along with airforce and navy suddenly veer northwest out of the zones, make a rapid strike, bringing several outlying islands under government control.

This is pretty consistent with how China fights when dealing with peer and near peer threats and would be viewed as proportional to the US escalation.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I mean yeah, sure, but what just happened is the equivalent of the other player getting up and smacking you in the middle of the match lol. Projecting weakness, and making yourself out to be more bark than bite is seldom a winning strategy - and opens up both sides to miscalculations in future.
In the realm of politics you’re really screwed if this is the sort of stuff that you think will make you look weak. Besides your relevant audience is other decision makers, not mass opinion.
 
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